TUF 22 Finale predictions: Frankie Edgar vs. Chad Mendes
— -- Barring a last-second disaster to UFC 194's featherweight main event (please no), Frankie Edgar will not fight for a UFC title in 2015. A win against Chad Mendes at the The Ultimate Fighter 22 Finale on Friday, however, would almost have to guarantee he does so in 2016, right? Edgar, a former lightweight champion, is on a four-fight winning streak, with dominant performances against Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson and Urijah Faber.
The TUF Finale event also features a top lightweight encounter between surging Tony Ferguson (19-3) and Edson Barboza (16-3). Don't agree with my pick on the 145-pound main event? Or perhaps you'd like to compliment my spot-on take? Do so on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Frankie Edgar (19-4-1) vs. Chad Mendes (17-3)
Featherweights
Odds: Edgar minus-165; Mendes plus-145
There might not be enough superlatives in the world to describe Edgar as a mixed martial artist.
The most appropriate way to discuss elite fighters in this game can be in "hows." How do you prepare for Demetrious Johnson's speed? Jon Jones' length? Ronda Rousey's judo? OK, Holly Holm figured out an answer to that last one. With Edgar, how do you prepare for someone who makes so few mistakes, does so much right and never wears down? A select few have edged Edgar in a fight, but no one has ever put him away.
Mendes might need to do that if he's to win here. The odds of him outpointing Edgar over five rounds doesn't seem high. Mendes held up well in a five-round battle against Jose Aldo last October, but believe it or not, Edgar can set an even higher pace than what Mendes experienced in that fight. Edgar might underwhelm sometimes as far as the damage he inflicts, but when it comes to wearing an opponent down? You just don't get any breaks fighting Edgar.
Can Mendes be the guy to stop him? On paper, he appears to be one of the better bets to do so. He boasts a high knockdown rate despite little load-up in his power punches. That's so important against someone like Edgar, who is far too technical and fast to try to wing punches on. If you take someone with a compact left hook, like Mendes, and combine it with Edgar's constant pressure on the feet, the results could get interesting.
As is always the case with Edgar, it will be important to monitor how Mendes deals with the overload of feints he brings. Mendes' striking has improved tremendously throughout his career, but I do think if Edgar frustrates him early with the angles he creates, and the touch-and-go footwork, Mendes will start to lean on his athleticism and that lifelong wrestling background. He has transformed himself so much, it's easy to forget how much he used to rely on his wrestling. The more successful Edgar is on his feet early, the more Mendes might want to revert to wrestling.
In spurts, that might work for Mendes, but it won't win him the fight. Edgar has been taken down far more in his career than Mendes, but you wonder how much of that is due to him fighting up a weight class. In fact, it wouldn't be too surprising to see Mendes surrender a takedown for the first time in his career, because Edgar's setups are so brilliant. And that opens an entirely new can of worms because we've never seen Mendes fight off his back.
This is one of the absolute best non-title matchups the UFC could promote in any division. Edgar's pressure is beautiful to watch. It's relentless, but he stays within himself, picture perfect. Mendes has stupid knockout power in tight spaces, 100 percent takedown defense and a nose for a finish. If he tires at any point, Edgar is going to make a statement on him. Edgar has a knack for embarrassing opponents once they've gassed.
Prediction: Frankie "The Answer" Edgar by unanimous decision.
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