Ultimate NFC betting preview: Best bets for all 16 teams in 2016

— -- With the NFL season finally here, we have individual teams previews at ESPN Chalk for all 32 teams. I give my overall assessment of each team's strengths and weaknesses heading into the season, including my take on how each team will perform against the spread and if they are a good over/under play. I also give my take on each team's future-book odds, including Super Bowl futures and odds to win the division or conference, if I think that's a better bet. Plus, I give my take on each team's over/under season win total.

We're starting with all 16 teams in the NFC.

Odds are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday, Sept. 5.?"FPI Projection" is the number of wins projected by ESPN's Football Power Index.?"MLE" is the Money-Line Estimate using the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines and converting them to a money line and their chance of winning each game, then adding those up to get a win total to compare to the betting number "W/L/T" is the record by again going through each team's Week 1-16 lines at the CG Technology books and giving a win for each game favored and a loss for each game as an underdog?(Note: each Week 17 game is set as a pick-em. Also, CG Technology closed these lines at the start of the preseason, so I've made adjustments for?major injuries.)

NFC: East | West | North | South

NFC East

New York Giants
Super Bowl odds: 18-1 (opened 40-1)
Over/Under win total: 8.5 (Over EVEN/Under -120)

FPI Projection: 8.3 |? MLE: 7.9 |? W/L/T: 8-7-1

Overview: One of the fallouts of Tony Romo's injury is that the Giants are now the 8-5 favorite to win the NFC East despite having an over/under season win total of eight (same as the Cowboys, but with slightly more juice on the over). The Giants were a disappointing 6-10 last season but at least were profitable (barely) at 8-7-1 against the spread.

Future-book odds: I certainly wouldn't take the Giants at 8-5 to win the NFC East, but Romo's injury does give them a better chance to make the playoffs. Still, 9-1 to win the NFC and 18-1 to win the Super Bowl are a little short for me, as oddsmakers have been adjusting the Giants' odds downward.

Over/under win total: The Giants' over/under was at 8 with added juice most of the summer and it was a pass for me. After Philadelphia traded away? Sam Bradford, this?number has been raised to 8.5 and I believe that's an overadjustment. I now like the under 8.5 (and the FPI and MLE agree as they're still right around eight wins, plus the W/L/T has them favored in just eight games).

Dallas Cowboys
SB odds: 25-1 (opened 14-1)
O/U win total: 8 (O -125/U 105)

FPI Projection: 7.9 |? MLE: 8.2 |? W/L/T: 8-6-2

Overview:?Romo's back injury shook up the Cowboys' odds, but not as much as expected. I commented back in the first week of the preseason that rookie Dak Prescott looked impressive in his debut, and "I won't immediately think of the Cowboys as a bet-against like they were last year after Romo got hurt."

Of course, Prescott went on to complete 78 percent of his passes in the first three preseason games for more than 500 yards and five TDs, and now a lot of people have arrived at the same opinion. A lot of people are also excited about rookie RB Ezekiel Elliott running behind Dallas' vaunted offensive line. I would be tempted to take the Cowboys as underdogs, but we're probably not going to get much value with so many people on the Prescott bandwagon. Playing most of last season without Romo, the Cowboys were 10-5-1 with the under, and that's probably how I'll bet the early games.

Future-book odds: Romo's injury caused the Cowboys to be raised to 25-1 to win the Super Bowl, and that looks playable to me. Even if you're not a complete believer in Prescott, several reports have Romo missing six to 10 weeks, with some people believing he won't be out that long. So, Prescott might just need to keep the Cowboys in contention for a relatively short time, but we're still getting an increased payoff.

Over/under win total: I previously included the Cowboys under 9 wins as a best bet when the schedules were released, but then it was lowered to 8 after Romo's injury and I was ready to call it a lean on the over. However, in the past week it's been bet back up to 8.5, so I'll pass.

Washington Redskins
SB odds: 25-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 7.5 (O -120/U EVEN)

FPI Projection:?7.5 |? MLE: 7.2 |? W/L/T: 3-11-2

Overview:?The Redskins came from nowhere last season to steal the NFC East, partially due to Romo's absence and partially due to the Giants and Eagles having down years. Washington went 4-0 straight up and ATS down the stretch to finish 9-7 and avoid the criticism of being a .500-or-worse playoff team.

Kirk Cousins stepped up after relegating Robert Griffin III to the bench, but I don't see much upside from him; he's likely to regress this season. I wouldn't trust the Redskins as favorites, and I don't see many spots where I'd be getting enough points with them to back as an underdog (perhaps 3.5 in Week 3 at the Giants).

Future-book odds: As the defending division champs and with the rest of the NFC East flawed in some way, it's tempting to take 3-1 on the Skins to win the division. Beyond that, I wouldn't touch the 12-1 to win the NFC or 25-1 for the Super Bowl.

Over/under win total:?I considered under seven as a best bet back in April after the schedule was released, so I'm liking it even more as the number has crept up to 7.5, meaning we get a win if the Redskins go exactly 7-9 instead of a push. We love that the CG Technology Week 1-16 lines only have Washington favored in three games all season.

Philadelphia Eagles
SB odds: 100-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 6.5 (O 130/U -150)

FPI Projection:?6.4 |? MLE: 6.4 |? W/L/T: 3-11-2

Overview:? The Chip Kelly era in Philadelphia came in with a roar three years ago and went out with a whimper. Doug Pederson takes over after being the offensive coordinator in Kansas City and is expected to slow down things quite a bit. I think this will help make the Eagles more of an under team with a solid defense led by Fletcher Cox. Sam Bradford was slated to start the season at QB but was traded to Minnesota last Saturday. No. 2 overall draft choice Carson Wentz was sidelined during the preseason with a hairline fracture in his ribs but is expected to be the starter if cleared by doctors, otherwise journeyman Chase Daniel will get the nod. That uncertainty on offense should also help lead to more unders.

Future-book odds: The Eagles' Super Bowl odds had already drifted from 40-1 to 80-1 before the Bradford trade, but now have been increased to 100-1. In a weak division, I was considering the Eagles at 5-1 with Bradford but now I'd pass in a clear rebuilding year.

Over/under win total: I made the Eagles under 7 (-110) one of my best bets back in April. The number had been bet down to 6.5 at the Westgate even before the Bradford trade. The over was favored then, but now it's flipped to -150 on the under so I'll pass.

NFC South

Carolina Panthers
SB odds: 12-1 (opened 12-1)
O/U win total: 10.5 (O 120/U -140)

FPI Projection:?9.8 |? MLE:?10.9 |? W/L/T: 14-1-1

Overview:?A lot of people (including yours truly) wrote off the Panthers last season when wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin suffered a season-ending injury in training camp. But all? Cam Newton & Co. did was lead the NFL with 500 points (31.25 per game). Benjamin is back, and he should help open up the offense, though it's hard to see the Panthers scoring 500 with the proverbial bull's-eye on their back.

Likewise, I certainly don't expect them to go 15-1 straight-up again, or 11-5 ATS, so I'll be fading them early and often. Carolina has had a top-10 defense the past four seasons, but I really think they're going to miss shutdown CB Josh Norman, who went to Washington via free agency.

Future-book odds:?I wouldn't recommend the Panthers in any future bets, as they're prohibitive 1-3 favorites to win the division, 6-1 to win the NFC and 12-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those are all too short for me.

Over/under win total:?I'm already on record taking the Panthers under 10.5 and advising ESPN Chalk readers back in April to bet it before it required more juice. I wouldn't bet it at -140; besides, it's a little scary when I see that Carolina is potentially favored in 14 games and its MLE is 10.9 (though, as I also wrote in April, early-season setbacks could certainly affect the lines later in the season and decrease those numbers).

New Orleans Saints
SB odds: 80-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 7 (O -140/U 120)

FPI Projection:?7.0 |? MLE:?6.4 |? W/L/T: 6-9-1

Overview:?It's hard to like the Saints these days, as the defense has ranked No. 31 each of the past two seasons and -- even with Rob Ryan gone -- I haven't seen enough changes to think the defense will be anything but sieve-like. Besides, Drew Brees isn't getting any younger.

Still, the offense should be potent enough to make them live underdogs at some points this season; I'm specifically looking at Week 6, when Carolina visits New Orleans and Week 8, when Seattle is in town. The better bet in Saints' games might be the over, given their decent offense and porous defense. They were 9-7 with the over last year, and I would expect them to do at least that well again this season.

Future-book odds:?The Saints were my longshot Super Bowl pick two years ago, but I don't think they're going to help me recoup my losses anytime soon. If I had to make a bet on them, their 7-1 odds to win the NFC South might be worth a flier, as the division has been topsy-turvy over the years. However, I prefer another team to challenge the Panthers.

Over/under win total:?Back in April, I made the Saints' under 6.5 ( 115) one of my best bets, so I like under seven even better, even though the juice is heavy at -140. ESPN's FPI has this total pushing with exactly 7 wins, but I like that the Saints are projected to be favored in six games at CG Technology, plus the MLE adds up to 6.4 wins. I believe we're much more likely to see six wins (and a winning ticket) as opposed to eight.

Atlanta Falcons
SB odds: 80-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 7 (O -130/U 110)

FPI Projection:?7.0 |? MLE:?6.9 |? W/L/T: 4-10-2

Overview:?The Falcons had a disappointing season at 8-8 last year, but there were highlights. They started 5-0 while the Matt Ryan-to- Julio Jones combo looked unstoppable, and Devonta Freeman won the starting RB job and emerged as a scoring machine. The season fell apart as they lost seven of their last nine, in part due to the offense turning the ball over too frequently (including Ryan throwing four red zone INTs) and the defense not being able to stop anyone.

However, the Falcons have enough talent that they were the first team to beat the previously undefeated Panthers in Week 16. That showed me they can play with anyone. The offense can match anyone score for score, and the defense, while nowhere near the defense that Dan Quinn built in Seattle, should be improved. I'll be backing the Falcons early and often (and even though they were 14-2 with the under last year, I expect them to be more of an over team this season).

Future-book odds: After Super Bowl 50, I made the Falcons my best value bet for Super Bowl 51 at 40-1. The market hasn't agreed, as the Falcons drifted all the way up to 100-1 before dipping back to 80-1 over Labor Day Weekend. I think they're also worth a shot at 40-1 to win the NFC and 10-1 to win the NFC South.

Over/under win total:?If I like the Falcons to go to the playoffs (and especially to make a Super Bowl run), then I must love the over seven at -130. If you don't mind giving up the insurance of a push on a 7-9 season, there are some books that have over 7.5 at plus-money.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SB odds:?80-1 (opened 50-1)
O/U win total: 7 (O -140/U 120)

FPI Projection:?7.0 |? MLE:?6.8 |? W/L/T: 5-9-2

Overview:?The Buccaneers lost their last four games last season, and head coach Lovie Smith lost his job. So, now it's back to the drawing board for the Bucs, but most people don't know that Tampa ranked No. 5 in total offense -- with Doug Martin running the ball and making it easier for rookie QB Jameis Winston to spread the ball around to his big receivers, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. The Bucs were?No. 10 in total defense, so the cupboard isn't bare.

The Bucs will be a spot play for me when I feel they're getting enough points, but the fact this team is rebuilding again under another new coach, Dirk Koetter, wouldn't make me trust them as a favorite.

Future-book odds:?The Bucs aren't worth a Super Bowl play, even at 80-1, as they're a few years from being a legitimate title contender. Again, the only future bet I would consider would be a 7-1 flier to win the NFC South just because of the division's wide-open history, in which teams have often gone from worst to first.

Over/under win total:?I lean to under 7 and the MLE and W/L/T agree with that assessment, while the FPI has it as a push. I wouldn't call it a best bet, as 7-9 and a push is the most likely result; I just think there's a slightly better chance they go 6-10 than 8-8.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers
SB odds: 8-1 (opened 10-1)
O/U win total: 10.5 (O -170/U 150)

FPI Projection:?10.3 |? MLE:?10.9 |? W/L/T: 15-0-1

Overview:?The Packers lost receiver? Jordy Nelson to a knee injury in the preseason last season and had a mediocre defense (ranked No. 17 in yards allowed), yet Aaron Rodgers?led the Packers to a 10-6 record. That makes it hard to bet against them.

A healthier Green Bay team is scary. The public does love to bet the Packers with the over and their totals are often inflated, so I'll start the season looking to go under in their games until the offense is fully in sync (Green Bay was 11-5 with the under last year).

Future-book odds: The NFC and Super Bowl odds were already low for Green Bay before the season-ending injury to Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater, but it certainly makes the path a little easier. I'm not betting on the Pack, but if you're thinking about it, I would advise sooner rather than later (especially in case Green Bay gets off to a 6-0 start, like the team did last year).

Over/under win total: Since the Packers stayed under their total last year by winning 10 games, it's a little tempting to look that way again, but a lot of things went wrong and they barely stayed under. Besides, the Packers are favored in every game in Weeks 1-16, and it's hard to see them stumbling that many times.

For those thinking about the over, I'd also advise passing. The price of -160 is heavy juice to pay, plus FPI comes up with 10.3 wins and our MLE is at 10.9.

Minnesota Vikings
SB odds: 20-1 (opened 20-1)
O/U win total: 9.5 (over 115/under -135)

FPI Projection:?9.2 |? MLE:?9.0 |? W/L/T: 9-5-2

Overview:?The Vikings have already had a roller coaster of a 2016 as Teddy Bridgewater looked sharp in the preseason and then was lost for the year, going down in practice with a non-contact injury. It looked like they would enter the season with journeyman Shaun Hill as the starting QB but then traded for Sam Bradford on Saturday. Their over/under win total is back to 9.5, which is where it was with Bridgewater before being lowered to 8 with Hill. Oddsmakers are at least saying the Vikings should be as good as they were expected to be this season with Bridgewater. Of course, the Vikings are built around the running game of Adrian Peterson and a stellar defense, as Bridgewater threw just 14 TD passes in more of a game-manager role anyway.

Last year, the Vikings were a league-best 13-3 ATS (14-3 ATS if including their playoff loss to Seattle, which they should have won outright). I was hoping to get them as underdogs more this season with Hill, so we'll see if we get as many chances with Bradford. I know I won't be fading them as much. With a strong defense and conservative offense, they should be a solid under team again (9-4-3 last year).

Future-book odds: If you believe Bradford upgrades the Vikings' chances, then you missed the chance to grab them at 30-1 to win the Super Bowl and 4-1 to repeat as NFC North champs. The current Super Bowl price of 20-1 still looks fair, though they're been lowered to 5-2 to win the division.

Over/under win total:? I included the Vikings over 9.5 as a best bet back in April when the schedule came out and Bridgewater was healthy. I still lean this way but wouldn't call it a best bet.

Detroit Lions
SB odds: 60-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 7 (O -150/U 130)

FPI Projection:?6.9 |? MLE: 7.5 |? W/L/T: 6-9-1

Overview:?The big offseason news for Detroit was the unexpected retirement of Calvin Johnson. A lot of people have written off the Lions, but I believe their passing game will be fine with Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin being signed to join Golden Tate. Matthew Stafford will probably put up similar numbers as he did with Johnson, as long as a sub-par offensive line can help him stay healthy.

Besides, the Lions started last season 1-7 SU and ATS, so it's not as if Megatron made them a winner. Any adjustment considering his loss is probably an overcorrection, and I'll look for spot plays to back them as underdogs. The defense should be better this year with a strong line and the expected return of linebacker DeAndre Levy, so I'd also look to the under more this season.

Future-book odds: I'm higher on the Lions than a lot of people, but they're still a level or two below the Packers and even the Vikings in the NFC North, so no future wagers look playable.

Over/under win total:?I posted a lean on the Lions over 7 back in April. The number went up to 7.5, so I would have definitely passed on that, but now it's back down to 7 and I again lean to the over, but it's not a strong opinion.

Chicago Bears
SB odds: 80-1 (opened 40-1)
O/U win total: 7.5 (O 110/U -130)

FPI Projection:?7.3 |? MLE: 7.4 |? W/L/T: 6-8-2

Overview:?A lot of handicappers are down on the Bears, and I understand that if you watched how Jay Cutler and the starters struggled against the Broncos and Chiefs in Weeks 1 and 3 of the preseason. However, I saw enough in Week 2 against the Patriots to believe the Bears can be a live underdog at times and get back-door covers.

Jeremy Langford should be able to replace Matt Forte in the running game (and catching passes out of the backfield), and Cutler should be able to light up the scoreboard with Alshon Jeffery and? Kevin White. I'll be looking to play them as road 'dogs in Week 1 at Houston, Week 3 at Dallas, Week 5 at Indianapolis and Week 7 at Green Bay. With an improved but still mediocre defense, I'd also consider the Bears as an over team.

Future-book odds:?I don't expect the Bears to be consistent enough to warrant any future plays.?

Over/under win total:?While I believe the Bears will be live underdogs and very capable of some back-door covers, I'm not as confident they'll also win those games outright. The over/under of 7.5 looks like a toss-up, especially when we see FPI at 7.3 MLE at 7.4. Pass.

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks
SB odds: 8-1 (opened 8-1)
O/U win total: 10.5 (O -145/U 125)

FPI Projection:?10.0 |? MLE:?10.7 |? W/L/T: 12-3-1

Overview:?The Seahawks are the co-second choice in the Super Bowl future book at Westgate at 8-1 (only the Patriots at 6-1 have lower odds) and are tied for the highest over/under season win total at 10.5. They're one of the best overall teams and will have one of the best defenses in the league, especially in the secondary with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas.

However, while I don't think they'll miss Marshawn Lynch too much on offense since they've turned more into a passing team behind Russell Wilson, the offensive line continues to be a weak area -- and the best way to beat Seattle. I'll be fading the Seahawks early and often. Their Week 1 game against Miami has already been bet from -7.5 to -10.5. If they cover that, we'll probably see them laying inflated points all season.

Future-book odds: If the Seahawks get home-field advantage in the playoffs, then the 4-1 to win the NFC and 8-1 to win the Super Bowl will look like bargains in January. But in September, there seems to be too much competition in the conference to take such short odds. If you believe Seattle is the superior horse in a two-horse race with Arizona, then the 5-6 odds (-120 as a money line) might be appealing to win the NFC West, but I think the better option would be to take the Cardinals at 6-5.

Over/under win total:?FPI has the Seahawks coming up short with 10 wins, but our other indicators like the over, with the MLE at 10.7 (though technically it falls short of the 11 wins needed to go over) and the fact the Seahawks are favored in 12 games. I'm not playing it, but I would lean over.

Arizona Cardinals
SB odds: 8-1 (opened 10-1)
O/U win total: 10 (O -170/U 150)

FPI Projection:?9.6 |? MLE:?11.2 |? W/L/T: 12-2-2

Overview:?The Cardinals should once again have one of the most potent offenses in the NFL with? David Johnson?and Chris Johnson running behind a solid line and Carson Palmer spreading the ball around to a talented receiving corps. They also have a great defense, like Seattle, so I have the Cardinals as the stronger team overall and am not as willing to fade them.

Arizona caught a break with Tom Brady being suspended for their season-opener, though the time to bet the Cards was when it opened as a pick-em or Arizona -1 instead of the adjusted line of -4.5. There will be better times to lay points against less talented teams. I wish I could get the Cardinals plus points this year, but CG Technology's advance lines had the Cardinals as underdogs only twice: 3.5 at Carolina in Week 8 and 3.5 at Seattle in Week 16.

The over should again be a profitably play with the Cardinals (9-7 on the over last year), with their high-scoring offense plus a defense that has a knack for forcing turnovers.

Future-book odds: The 4-1 to win the NFC and 8-1 to win the Super Bowl are too short to tie up my money for five months, but as I mentioned in the Seattle preview, the best play might be the Cardinals at 6-5 to win the NFC West.

Over/under win total:?I recommended the Cardinals over 10 back in April, when the juice was lower. I wouldn't lay -170, but some books (such as the South Point in Vegas) have over 10.5 and just -110, so I would shop around for that.

Los Angeles Rams
SB odds: 100-1 (opened 50-1)
O/U win total: 7.5 (O 175/U -200)

FPI Projection:?7.1 |? MLE:?6.9 |? W/L/T: 6-9-1

Overview:?The Rams return to L.A. and traded up to get QB Jared Goff as the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but it looks like he will back up Case Keenum to start the season. This makes the Rams a little more playable early in the season, but just barely as Keenum is a journeyman QB at best and will be handing off a lot to? Todd Gurley. The defense will have to keep the Rams in games for them to have success, and they do bring a solid D from St. Louis, though it usually fared better at home in the dome. We'll see if they have any kind of home-field advantage in the cavernous Los Angeles Coliseum.

I'll probably start by fading them at home and look to take them on the road, where they'll be getting more points. They could also be a solid under team (conservative offense, decent defense) like last year, when they were 12-4 with the under.

Future-book odds:?If a book offers a prop bet on the Rams winning the Super Bowl when they open their new stadium on the former Hollywood Park site, that might be worth a flier, but otherwise hold onto your money.

Over/under win total: Back in April, I made the Rams under 7.5 one of my best bets. I wouldn't lay -200 to get that number now. I also wouldn't go under 7 wins as it's clear that Jeff Fisher wants to at least be competitive in the first year back in Los Angeles and this team does have some talent. I'm less confident about them finishing below .500.

San Francisco 49ers
SB odds: 200-1 (opened 60-1)
O/U win total: 5.5 (O 110/U -130)

FPI Projection: 5.6 |? MLE:?5.3 |? W/L/T: 0-12-4

Overview:?It still amazes me how quickly San Francisco has gone from a Super Bowl contender to one of the worst teams in the league. The Chip Kelly era begins, and he inherits a worse team than when he took over in Philadelphia, so I don't foresee a quick turnaround. Blaine Gabbert looks like he has replaced Colin Kaepernick at QB, which doesn't inspire too much confidence, though the return of Carlos Hyde helps.

The one thing the 49ers did well last year was defending their home field, going 5-3 ATS (all as underdogs) with four outright upsets. That means they were a woeful 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road, so I'll just be looking to play the 49ers in the home underdog role.

Future-book odds: FPI has the 49ers with only a 5.3 percent chance to make the playoffs, so there's not many future bets that are appealing (unless you can find 30-1 on them making the postseason, and even then, I wouldn't recommend it).

Over/under win total:?I had a lean on under six back in April, but now the 49ers' total has been bet down to 5.5. With parity in the NFL, I would normally be tempted to try and go over 5.5 with any given team, but it's hard to find wins for the 49ers on the schedule. They're not favored in a single game. They do have four pick 'em contests, but even if they went 3-1 in those games, they'd have to pull off three more outright upsets. I'll pass.