What will it take for Villanova to win another title?

ByJOHN GASAWAY
November 22, 2016, 10:21 AM

— -- Florida won back-to-back national titles a decade ago, and since that time no defending champion has even made it to the Elite Eight, much less the Final Four. Can Villanova break that streak and cut down the nets in 2017? Absolutely.

Of course, the most likely outcome next April is that one of the 350 other teams in Division I will win it all. Nevertheless, it's unusual to see a reigning champion this well-positioned to defend its title. Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth and Darryl Reynolds are all still in uniform, and that gives coach Jay Wright what he needs to make a real run at a second consecutive championship.

Just how rare is Villanova's favorable -- though far from dominant -- situation?

Since Florida claimed its second straight national crown in 2007, just two teams have carried realistic hopes of defending their championships the following March: Duke in 2011 and Louisville in 2014. Both lost in the Sweet 16, but the Wildcats this season can be placed comfortably alongside those two teams. In fact, Wright has more returning experience on hand than any defending champion since -- you guessed it -- the Gators in 2006-07.

Naturally, any team's title hopes will be a function of two factors: (1) how good the team is; and (2) the quality of the competition. ?

Wright's team can shoot and defend, but is thin in the paint

If there's one thing we learned about Nova last spring, it's that these guys know how to put the ball in the basket. True, point guard Ryan Arcidiacono (he of the 71 percent shooting on 2s and 62 percent accuracy on 3s during the tournament) helped make that happen, and the senior came to the end of his eligibility last season. Without Arcidiacono and without ? Daniel Ochefu?(also a senior last season), can the Wildcats continue to make shots?

There's every reason to think they can, yes. Obviously, no team, not even Villanova itself, is likely to duplicate the incredible display of accuracy we saw last postseason. Over the course of six games, the Wildcats connected on 63 percent of their 2s and 50 percent of their 3s. Any rotation that shot that well for an entire season would stand alone as, by far, the most accurate team in the history of college hoops.

But that doesn't mean the shooting performance we saw from Nova was a fluke. More like an unsustainably extreme level of accuracy from the team most likely to be this extreme. In 54 regular-season Big East games over the past three seasons, Villanova has converted 38 percent on 3s and 54 percent on 2s, making the Wildcats (easily) the best shooting major-conference team in the country over that span.

Wright cranks out accuracy the way North Carolina coach Roy Williams reliably churns out offensive boards or Virginia coach Tony Bennett consistently produces defense. And with Hart and Jenkins returning, you have to like the Wildcats' chances of posting another impressive shooting season.

Speaking of impressive, Villanova doesn't get the credit it deserves on defense. Last season the Wildcats' Big East opponents connected on just 45 percent of their 2s, while Wright's guys absolutely dominated the defensive glass (pulling down 74 percent of conference opponents' misses). That said, the now departed Ochefu was a big part of both of those admirable numbers, and if there's one area of concern for Wright in 2016-17, it's in the paint.

Since the NCAA as ruled that freshman Omari Spellman has to sit out this season, the Wildcats' rotation at center is down to Reynolds (a 6-foot-9 senior) as the starter, with support from sophomore Tim Delaney and freshman Dylan Painter. On paper, that's a step down from the Ochefu-Reynolds combination of last season -- a step down in rebounds at both ends, blocks and (perhaps especially) workload capacity on offense. Can one, two or all three players can exceed such projections?

Nova should face a real challenge from Duke and ... a team to be named later

With the exception of Wisconsin, Villanova has the most returning experience from last season of any team in the top 10. That is an excellent position to be in if you're trying to mount a title defense.

Then again, there is this other team above the Wildcats in the standings named Duke, and the Blue Devils look awfully tough. In fact, you can make a case that Mike Krzyzewski has enough returning experience and freshman talent to give his group a legitimate shot at the coveted Great Team label. Those teams don't come around every season. In that sense, this could be an unusually challenging year for other title aspirants.

Nor is Duke the only potential rival looming in Villanova's path. In fact, a glance at the teams garnering the preseason love from pollsters suggests no lack of serious competition in 2016-17. It's a safe bet that at least one non-Duke team is going to be exceptionally strong this season, whether it's Kansas, Kentucky or perhaps even that aforementioned group of oh-so-experienced Badgers in Madison. Bottom line, the sledding may be even tougher for Villanova come tournament time than it was in the "no great teams year" last postseason.

So, no, Villanova isn't a sure thing for a repeat. But compared to other defending champions that followed in the wake of the '06-07 Florida team -- four of which, by the way, missed the next season's tournament entirely -- the Wildcats' chances are notably robust. Hart is a preseason first-team All-American, Jenkins could end up having an even better season than Hart, Fordham transfer and 2015 Atlantic 10 Rookie of the Year Eric Paschall may provide a nice boost (the staff has even hinted at using the 6-foot-8 sophomore as a default center in spots), and Wright, lest we forget, is 48-6 in Big East play since the league assumed its present 10-team configuration.

A second consecutive title for Nova is well within the realm of possibility. That's rather unusual in this sport, and, as with rather unusual occurrences in other sports, the Wildcats' attempt at a title defense promises to make for great viewing.