Wait, what? The CFP committee's most underrated, overrated teams
— -- The top three teams in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings are about what most expected, but there were certainly some surprises -- notably Texas A&M being ranked ahead of Washington -- on Tuesday night. Like with any rankings, there will be disagreement about which teams are ranked too high and too low.
With the help of ESPN's set of metrics, let's break down some areas where the numbers and committee disagree. Florida State faithful, the metrics agree with you, the Seminoles should be higher. Nebraska fans ... you should stop reading now.
It's important to note -- and read this closely -- that ESPN's metrics are not designed to predict the top 25. There is a human element to the process that cannot be measured. What they can do, however, is objectively measure team strength and accomplishment based on whom each team played and how they performed in those games.
Quick definition of ESPN's metrics
We'll keep this short, but it's necessary to explain the two metrics that will be highlighted below. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a forward-looking power rating that measures which teams are strongest on a neutral field. Strength of Record (SOR) is a backward-looking r?sum? rating that measures which teams have the most impressive records to date, given their schedules.
FPI accounts for how a team won its games, and SOR simply cares about the difficulty of a team's schedule and the results (win or loss). Both metrics have value, but they need to be used in the correct context for maximum impact. To put it simply, FPI identifies the "best" teams, and SOR identifies the "most deserving" ones. You can read more about the difference between these metrics and which ones the committee values here or here.
Metrics have no major beef with the top four
Alabama, Clemson and Michigan all rank in the top four of FPI and SOR, so there are no arguments when it comes to those powerhouses. Clemson might have a case for the No. 1 overall spot given its r?sum? (No. 1 in SOR), but Alabama's dominance (No. 1 in Game Control) and projected strength (No. 1 in FPI) set it apart. The most surprising part of the rankings, however, was Texas A&M being ranked ahead of Washington at No. 4.
Texas A&M certainly has a case for the fourth spot based on its r?sum?; an average top-25 team would have a 10 percent chance of starting 7-1 against Texas A&M's schedule, which includes two wins against FPI top 25 opponents and the most forgivable loss (at Alabama) possible. That same team would have a 21 percent chance of starting 8-0 versus Washington's schedule, which does not include a win against an FPI top 25 opponent. If you prefer to rank teams based on which ones would win on a neutral field, Washington certainly has a case to be ranked ahead of Texas A&M. Given each team's overall body of work, however, there is certainly a case for A&M to be deserving of a playoff spot at this point.
Although there are no major disagreements at the top of the rankings, there are a number of teams about which the metrics and committee disagree. Below are three teams the metrics would rank higher and three they would rank lower.
Teams the metrics would rank higher
1. Florida State (5-3) CFP Rank: 22nd; FPI Rank: 10th; SOR Rank: 15th
Florida State is the only three-loss team to make the CFP top 25, but there's still a case it is ranked too low. The Seminoles have played FPI's second-hardest schedule to date (behind Stanford) and still won five games. According to SOR, it's harder for an average top-25 team to go 5-3 against Florida State's schedule than 6-1 against No. 11 Florida's. Other than their one blowout loss at Louisville, the Noles have been in every game and easily could have won against Clemson or North Carolina (or lost at Miami). They challenged themselves out of conference and certainly have an argument to be ranked in the top 15.
2. Western Michigan (8-0) CFP Rank: 23rd; FPI Rank: 24th; SOR Rank: 10th
Although Western Michigan hasn't played the toughest schedule (ranked 114th by FPI) it's hard to go 8-0 against any set of games. The Broncos have two road wins against the Big Ten and have absolutely dominated their MAC opponents this season. They have the fourth-best average win probability in the FBS, and once adjusting for opponents faced, they rank 14th in game control. That should be good enough to earn a top-20 ranking.
3. Colorado (6-2) CFP Rank: 15th; FPI Rank: 13th; SOR Rank: 12th
It's time we give Colorado the national respect it deserves. The Buffaloes are 6-2 with the 13th-best average scoring margin in the country. Unlike some other dominant teams, Colorado has played a fairly difficult schedule (ranked 32nd by FPI) with road games against Michigan, Oregon, USC and Stanford. Sure, Colorado has two losses, but it had a second-half lead at Michigan and lost by four at USC. An average top-25 team would not be expected to win either of those games. As the FPI favorite to win the Pac-12 South, the Buffs are a playoff sleeper worth watching.
Teams the metrics would rank lower
1. Nebraska (7-1) CFP Rank: 10th; FPI Rank: 28th; SOR Rank: 16th
Nebraska has played one game against a team ranked in the top 40 of ESPN's Football Power Index and lost. In fairness to the Huskers, they forced overtime in that game, but they simply don't have the wins or on-field performance worthy of a top-10 ranking. The problem for Nebraska is that it has played an easy schedule (ranked 65th by FPI) and has not been dominant. As a result, Nebraska ranks 35th in ESPN's Game Control metric, which is largely a numerical representation of the eye test. We will find out for sure if the committee or metrics "got it right" when the Huskers travel to Columbus on Saturday to face Ohio State for their toughest test of the season.
2. Utah (7-2) CFP Rank: 16th; FPI Rank: 36th; SOR Rank: 17th
Utah has the lowest FPI ranking of any team currently ranked in the committee's top 25. That might be because the Utes have four wins by seven or fewer points (tied for second most in FBS) and have struggled on the road against lesser competition. Utah's ranking is largely buoyed by its r?sum?, which includes three close wins against teams ranked in the FPI top 40, but the Utes simply are not expected to be as strong as teams ranked below them. For perspective, they would have a 40 percent chance to be No. 25 Washington State at a neutral site, according to FPI.
3. Florida (6-1) CFP Rank: 11th; FPI Rank: 20th; SOR Rank: 15th
Florida is in a unique situation because one of its hardest games (versus LSU) was moved to later in the season (and to Baton Rouge). The committee and metrics can evaluate Florida based only on what it has done so far, and given the quality of opponents faced, that is not too much. The Gators have played one game in which an average top-25 team would have less than a 75 percent chance to win (at Tennessee), and lost. Though they might be stronger than their r?sum? suggests, there are still questions about their offense (lowest offensive efficiency of any CFP top 25 team) and how they will perform against a quality opponent. With a trip to Arkansas on Saturday, the Gators will begin to answer the question of whether they are worthy of a top-11 ranking.
