Watch out, these are the most underrated teams in the NBA

— -- Which teams might surprise us?

Let's use real plus-minus (RPM) projections to reveal five teams that might be better than you expect.

Houston Rockets

With Dwight Howard in relatively good health, and no big changes to a Western Conference finals team that won 56 games in 2014-15, everyone expected a lot from the Rockets last season.

But Houston barely made the playoffs, winning just 41 games. Even a coaching change early in the season did not significantly improve things.

Then Howard -- a three-time Defensive Player of the Year -- walked this past offseason, appearing to damage a defense that was already below average (No. 21 last season in defensive rating).

Given those facts, one might expect the situation to look grim. And indeed the ESPN Summer Forecast predicted no increase in wins.

But I disagree. The Rockets should be much improved this season.

While it's tempting to point at their three veteran additions as the reason -- Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson and Nene -- it's actually two departures that matter most.

First, Howard's true impact had diminished so much that we should expect 33-year-old Nene, the Rockets' new center, to outperform Howard next season, assuming the Brazilian can stay healthy.

Furthermore, by waiving Terrence Jones, the Rockets performed a little addition by subtraction. Jones' departure meant they could replace 1,044 minutes from the NBA's second-worst player last season, according to RPM.

With Jones out of the picture, improvement appears almost inevitable for Houston.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings haven't made the playoffs for 10 straight seasons. In that time, they've had eight coaches, with only Mike Malone coming close to a winning record. The unnecessary firing of Malone in 2014 is just one of many signs of this franchise's ineptitude.

The ESPN Forecast panel predicted only 30 wins for Sacramento, three fewer than last season. While there are plenty of reasons for pessimism, there are also reasons for optimism. There might be a 40-win team lurking on this mismatched roster. The Kings have shown that potential at times in recent seasons -- without being able to sustain it.

The main cause for hope -- but also a cause for skepticism -- is superstar DeMarcus Cousins. The big man's talent is matched by his penchant for creating turbulence in the organization. We'll see if new coach Dave Joerger is the man to get the best out of Cousins.

The departure of Rajon Rondo might not be a problem at all. He still posts gaudy assist numbers, but his inability to shoot and his lackluster defensive effort limits his impact.

In all, the Kings will probably not be able to break out of the treadmill of mediocrity, but look for them to take a step in the right direction.

Denver Nuggets

The ESPN Summer Forecast projected the Nuggets to win 33 games this season, just a single win more than last season. I am more optimistic.

Here's the main reason why the Nuggets should finish a lot closer to .500 in 2016-17: Last season, the team gave more than 6,000 minutes to players 21 years or younger. Through statistical analysis, we know players generally improve until about age 27, with the largest bulk of improvement coming in the early years, about 19 to 21.

Nikola Jokic, who rated as the NBA's ninth-best player last season according to RPM, doesn't appear to have the highest ceiling and thus probably won't improve much. But Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris, among others, should show substantial growth this season.

With Mike Malone as coach, the Nuggets have a capable man at the helm. Don't be surprised if the Nuggets compete with the West's usual playoff teams for the No. 8 spot.

Utah Jazz

We all expect to see the Golden State Warriors at the top of the West standings, and most expect the San Antonio Spurs to finish second once again. The No. 3 spot is where things get interesting.

Kevin Pelton's forecast, using RPM, put the Utah Jazz at No. 3. Given that the Jazz missed the playoffs last season and didn't sign a major free agent, we can assume this outcome would shock some folks. (The ESPN Summer Forecast had the Jazz finishing fifth in the West.)

What might be even more shocking is that the Jazz are still projected to finish third, even with Gordon Hayward projected to miss perhaps a month of the regular season with a fractured ring finger.

But No. 3 in the West is still how it looks right now, assuming that Hayward can return by the end of November.

Of course, this isn't entirely about the Jazz. Last season's No. 3 and No. 4 seeds -- the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers, respectively -- are each likely to take a step back this season, leaving room for a team like Utah.

But let's give the Jazz their props, too. Getting a full season from Rudy Gobert should help, but the biggest difference-maker might be George Hill, acquired for a draft pick. Hill rates well by RPM and plugs a giant hole for the Jazz. Newcomers Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw?also rate as above average.

Age should work in Utah's favor, too, for the most part. Its core of players 26 and under is young enough to show further growth, and Quin Snyder appears to be the perfect coach to push the team to new levels.

Add all those positives to the fact that the Jazz actually had the point differential of a 46-win team (which was fifth best in the West), and it's not hard to see why RPM likes the Jazz as the third seed in the West.

Brooklyn Nets

Brooklyn was the second-worst team in the league last season -- winning just 21 games -- but still didn't get a lottery pick, thanks to the infamous Nets-Celtics trade made by former GM Billy King.

Despite that, I believe Brooklyn can take a step forward this season.

First, the bad. Two of the Nets' best players have departed -- Joe Johnson and Thaddeus Young. While they weren't superstars, RPM rated both as above-average players.

Secondly, Bojan Bogdanovic is expected to play a lot this season -- not a good thing, given that he was one of the worst defenders in the NBA last season. RPM isn't a fan of Sean Kilpatrick or Greivis Vasquez, either. All three players are expected to be below replacement-level.

What, then, makes us think the Nets will win more games? For one thing, we think Jeremy Lin will be a significant improvement at point guard over Shane Larkin. Also, RPM supports the signing of Trevor Booker, a good rebounder with very good steal and turnover rates.

Perhaps most importantly, I expect Rondae Hollis-Jefferson to play significantly more minutes this season. In 2015-16, as a rookie, Hollis-Jefferson made a good early impression -- especially on the defensive end -- but an ankle injury limited him to 29 games. His return should help the Nets avoid being the NBA's worst team.