Space station's fate resting on Oct. 30 launch

CAPE CANAVERAL -- The near-term fate of the International Space Station rests with the upcoming launch of a robotic space freighter and an effort to improve quality control at Russian rocket engine factories.

Russian engineers still do not know for certain what caused an Aug. 24 Soyuz U rocket failure that grounded the planned Sept. 21 launch of a new station crew. Three people operating the outpost will return to Earth on Nov. 22. The new crew is slated to launch Nov. 14, but that flight depends on the outcome of the Oct. 30 launch of a Soyuz U rocket with a Progress space freighter.

A second consecutive Soyuz U failure almost certainly would force the returning trio to leave the station without a crew until rocket problems could be resolved.

"There are some big events coming up that will really determine how close to the current schedule we stick," station commander Mike Fossum said.

Soyuz FG rockets used to launch people are similar to the Soyuz U rockets used to launch unmanned Progress space freighters. Since the retirement of the U.S. shuttle fleet, the Soyuz FG rockets provide the only means of getting people to the station.

Investigators determined that the most probable cause of the Aug. 24 failure was a clogged third-stage propellant line.

However, the Soyuz rocket was destroyed during atmospheric re-entry. Any debris fell into a remote area of the Altai Republic. Consequently, investigators have no physical evidence.

"It seems to be an unexplained anomaly in the fuel system, so they've added more tear-downs, re-inspections," Fossum said.

Fossum is confident the Oct. 30 launch will be successful and that the next crew will arrive on schedule.

"Things are on track," he said. "Everything sounds good, and everyone's moving forward."