Caterpillars, Scientists Agree: Cold Winter Ahead

H A G E R S T O W N, Md., Nov. 1 -- If you catch a case of cabin fever threemonths from now, don’t blame the woolly bears. The fuzzycaterpillars have given fair warning of a long, cold winter.

The word came today from J. Gruber’s Hagers-Town Town andCountry Almanack. The nation’s second-oldest almanac bases itsannual predictions on the black and reddish-brown markings ofIsabella tiger moth larvae.

Forecaster Frank Leiter said he examined 632 caterpillars andfound the black markings at either end to be similar in length andlonger than usual. That means the first half and the second half ofwinter will be cold in western Maryland, he said.

Insects Agree With Weather Service

The caterpillars concurred with the National Weather Service,which has forecast a return to cold, snowy weather in the Northeastafter several mild winters.

Leiter, 81, has been making the predictions and judging arelated caterpillar contest for 18 years. Children collect thewoolly worms and bring them to the almanac office in hopes ofwinning one of the $100 prizes offered for the biggest and cutestcaterpillars.

“I enjoy doing it,” Leiter said. “I enjoy it more when I’m incontact with the kids.”

Meteorologists and entomologists alike dismiss woolly bearweather forecasting as colorful nonsense. The almanac, establishedin 1797, introduced the feature in 1982 in hopes of makingHagerstown as famous as Punxatawney, Pa., home of the Groundhog Daygroundhog.

Last year, Leiter predicted a cold early winter — mid-Novemberthrough mid-January — and a mild second half. Instead, the weatherwas mild until late December and harshest from late January tomid-February, when three big storms hit.

The Hagers-Town Town and Country Almanack is five years youngerthan the 209-year-old Old Farmer’s Almanac, the nation’s oldestcontinuously published periodical.