'GTA IV' and 'Mario' will have a lock on video-game sales

ByABC News
April 29, 2008, 11:15 AM

— -- With the arrival in stores this week of long-awaited titles Grand Theft Auto IV and Mario Kart Wii, the already hot video game industry is headed for the stratosphere.

For 24 months in a row, sales of video-game systems and software have grown over the previous year. That performance led to record sales of $18 billion last year, up from $12.5 billion in 2006, according to market tracking firm The NPD Group.

REVIEWS:Grand Theft Auto IV; Mario Kart Wii

Industry observers were prepared for a breather after the strong 2007 holiday season, but sales continue to rocket. "With continued demand for games like Guitar Hero and Rock Band, big-ticket items, and the (Nintendo) Wii not in stock … we saw some big numbers in February and March," says Edward Williams, an analyst with BMO Capital Markets.

Sales rose 34% in February ($1.3 billion) and 57% in March ($1.7 billion) over the previous year and April is likely to keep growing with potential blockbusters such as GTA IV, out Tuesday, and Mario Kart, released Sunday.

The controversial GTA IV, even as it draws complaints from parent activist groups for its violent themes, also draws dollar comparisons with box-office smashes such as Spider-Man 3 ($337 million in the USA) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($309 million). Williams estimates GTA IV should surpass $200 million in U.S. sales in its first week.

And Nintendo's Mario Kart "is definitely going to give us a good start to the week," says Bob McKenzie of the GameStop chain.

While it's uncommon for two such popular games to hit stores within days of each other, the Mature-rated GTA IV and the family-friendly Mario represent a "classic example of counterprogramming," NPD's Anita Frazier says. "I expect April to be a record sales month."

With Nintendo's healthful Wii Fit due May 19 and Metal Gear Solid in June for the Sony PS3, Williams says, "you are going to have some pretty strong numbers through the first half of the year."

Reasons behind the hot streak: