Study: Apple could be leading PC vendor by next year
— -- Apple's long climb back from the margins of the PC industry will culminate in world domination next year, according to one researcher — but only if you consider the iPad a PC.
Canalys is projecting that Apple will overtake Hewlett-Packard as the leading global PC vendor sometime before the second half of 2012. Canalys, however, lumps iPad sales in with PC sales, which makes Amazon a player as well. The researcher predicts that total "pad" sales will reach 59 million units by the end of 2011, a category that includes the Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble's Nook Tablet.
The entry of those two lower-priced tablets will dampen Apple's growth somewhat, according to Canalys analyst Tim Couling. "Apple has seen its PC market share expand from 9% to 15% in just four quarters, though iPad shipments in its core market - the United States - are likely to come under pressure in Q4 due to the launch of the Fire and Nook at extremely competitive price points," he wrote in a release from the company. "HP and Apple will fight for top position in Q4, but Apple may have to wait for the release of iPad 3 before it passes HP."
Factoring in the growth of the tablet market, full-year global PC shipments for 2011 are expected to rise 15% to 415 million units.
Canalys also predicts that the share for Android-based tablets will be boosted by the release of Android 4.0, a.k.a. "Ice Cream Sandwich." The upgrade of Google's OS has already shown up in Samsung's Galaxy Nexus and is expected to appear in smartphones from HTC and others in 2012.
A boost from Ice Cream Sandwich no doubt would be a relief for vendors of Android-based tablets. According to research released by NPD on Tuesday, the combined sales for all non-Apple tablets in the U.S. for January to October was just 1.2 million units. By its own reckoning, Apple sold more than 25 million iPads for the first three quarters of this year.
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