Bloomberg's strategy of skipping early states is 'confusing' the process: Nate Silver

538's Nate Silver discusses whether he thinks a contested convention is likely in the Democratic primaries.
2:29 | 02/16/20

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Transcript for Bloomberg's strategy of skipping early states is 'confusing' the process: Nate Silver
Would you agree with that as a principle whoever goes with 50 to 100 delegates that should be the nominee. The convention would have to explain to the American people, hey, candidate "X" kind of got the most votes and won the most delegates in the primary process but we're not going to give him or her the nomination, I think that would be a very divisive moment for the democratic party. There's already been quite a bit of buzz about the very real scenario of a contested convention when the Democrats arrive in Milwaukee this July. Some say it's a reality due in large part to a unique primary calendar and an usually wide field of candidates after Iowa and New Hampshire. So we had to ask Nate silver, do you buy that? Yeah, so it's been a long time since we had a contested convention. Some factors this year that make it a real responsibility. One of it is a calendar. Super Tuesday is just three days after South Carolina. By the time super Tuesday states have voted, placing like Texas and California, 38% of all delegates will already have been chosen. Unless one breaks into a commanding position before super Tuesday, all those delegates could be split several different ways making it hard for anyone to get a majority. The second is Michael Bloomberg, his strategy of skipping the first four states is confusing the process, it's making it hard for moderates to settle on one candidate. Whether it's Bloomberg himself or Pete buttigieg or Amy klobuchar and let's not forget about Joe Biden. Michael Bloomberg is competitive in super Tuesday states. The biggest thing that could have a biggest contested is Bernie Sanders. While Bernie in leading in national polls his numbers are in the mid-20s. Which leaves plenty of votes to go around among other candidates. Even New Hampshire, which should be one of his strongest states, he got 26% of the vote. Not quite clear yet how high his ceiling is yet. The model says there's 36% chance that nobody wins a delegate majority, that's not exactly the same thing as a contested convention. But close enough for our purposes here. I buy that a contested convention is very very possible. One more surprise result, an upset in Nevada means we could be getting there soon. Our thanks to Nate for that. And a reminder, you can get the very latest on the primary forecast at fivethirtyeight.com. And coming up, the surprise

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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