Transcript for Kamala Harris' 2020 exit puts 'Biden in position to benefit': Nate Silver
Over the last few days, I have come to one of the hardest decisions of my life. So here's the deal, guys. My campaign for president simply does not have the financial resources to continue. I'm not a billionaire. I can't fund my own campaign and as the campaign has gone on, it has become harder and harder to raise the money we need to compete. In good faith I cannot tell you my supporters and volunteers that I have a path forward if I don't believe I do. Kamala Harris now the 13th Democrat to drop out of the presidential race. 15 remain. Still the largest field in memory, so what does her withdrawal mean for the other candidates? Does Joe Biden benefit the most? We asked fivethirtyeight's Nate silver do you buy that? A whole bunch of Democrat has nice things to say about kamala Harris after she suspended her campaign and, of course, it's at least in part because they want to pick up some of her support. According to polling by yougov, it says most consider Elizabeth Warren their second choice but a lot are considering Joe Biden also. Let's think about the picture. Harris is polling at only 4% in the fivethirtyeight national polling average and 4% only gets you so far. But there are other ways in which she was a bigger factor in the race. Number one for me, she removes a rival to Biden among African-Americans. The black vote is his fire wall in South Carolina where Biden is still up by more than 20 points in the fivethirtyeight polling average. To be fair, Harris herself had only 6% of the black vote in South Carolina. Still with her out of the race, and Cory booker and Deval Patrick not yet having qualified for the remaining debates Biden's lead looks bigger and Harris removes a threat to Biden among the party establishment based on endorsement, the best way we found to track what they're thinking and doing Harris had been a clear number two after Biden. With her out, Biden has more than twice as many endorsements as the next remaining rival, Elizabeth Warren and he got a pretty big endorsement in John Kerry this week. Finally Harris and Biden were fishing in a little bit of the same pond as far as fund-raising goes. Unlike Warren and Bernie Sanders, Biden and Harris have both raised most of their money from big donors. And after a mediocre fund-raising haul this summer, Biden has reportedly seen an uptick in fund-raising this quarter, so I do buy it. This is pretty clearly good news for Biden. All year long we've seen that when Harris steps to rise Biden tend to fall and vice versa. With her surprisingly to me anyway early exit Biden is in a
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