Transcript for Lesson of recent UK election 'is not good news for Democrats': WaPo columnist
anybody else. We were agreeing he has remarkable staying power, but I want to tie that to the election of Boris Johnson on Thursday. He seems to be uniting a lot of analysts. Mike Bloomberg says he's for coal mine and Democrats. James karbal says, you can go so left, and Steve Bannon picks up on that. Trump is headed for a reagan-like '84 victory. Ruth Marcus, if they agree, does that mean it's right or wrong? That's an interesting question. Look. We all have a tendency to over-interpret the impact of midterm elections, all year elections and certainly elections in other countries which have different politics and different political systems than ours. That said, that lesson of that election which I'm going to now over-interpret having warned against it, is not good news for Democrats and it should be particularly chilling for people who are thinking about the possibility of a Sanders nomination because that -- I'm not sure we're going to get to Reagan landslide territory, but I think it would be a challenge for Democrats. And Patrick, what did we see from democratic voters this year? Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders take about 43% of the vote, sometimes whenever one of them rises too high, they seem to hit a wall. Let's talk about that boom and bust cycle. But I have to say quickly, I don't think there are any lessons from England unless you think of corbyn as a serious leader. He coddled anti-semites in his ranks and never took a clear, coherent position on Brexit. That's why he failed there, but there is this boom bust inside the democratic party over the course over the last eight months. If you told me mayor Pete would be in the contest, and kamala Harris would be out, and you said that six months ago, I would say you're insane. Bernie Sanders demonstrated a lot four years ago that he continues to benefit from now. That California number is powerful. If he finishes -- Votes before that, and the date is March 3rd. There's early voting. He's the only one with any serious momentum right now, and as governor Christie has pointed out to me, the superdelegate eraser is only going to benefit Bernie Sanders in the end. You know, if you are Donald Trump you're sitting and watching this and you can't believe your good fortune. Again. Your good fortune again. You really can't believe it. I mean, the fact that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are where the energy is. Joe Biden has seemed unable to perform at a level that's acceptable for him to take off with the rest of his voters that are reluctant about Warren and Sanders, and that buttigieg just does not seem in my view to be able to be taken long-term seriously as a nominee for a whole bunch of reasons, including his lack of support in the minority community. I think, you know, he's looking at the very real possibility that he could be running against a Warren or a Sanders which he would relish. But rich Lowry, if Bernie Sanders has persisted and he has, and stayed pretty steady even after a heart attack, so is Joe Biden at the top. He has been remarkably stable. His performance has never risen above fair or mid length at best. This is wide open. Still she has shown remarkable persistence. Biden could easily win Iowa. He's probably the nominee, and it's much less dramatic. As Nate silver alluded to, Bernie Sanders could win Iowa and New Hampshire. Then you're looking at desperate stop Bernie Sanders campaigns, so I would say two things the last couple of things have been the big stories. One, the uptick of Bernie Sanders. The other is Amy klobuchar beginning to show a little momentum. In Iowa. That's in Iowa. I think any of five candidates could come out. It is true, Ruth, that Iowa seems remarkably unsettled right now. We know that Pete buttigieg has served and he has a good organization, and so does Elizabeth Warren. There seems to be a lot of up and down among the top four candidates, and a little bit of momentum. Up and down, and Iowa's a place where people make up their minds late where the late organization matters a lot where people are going to get to see these candidates and I'm not on the Bernie surging, you know, that this is our nominee, the nominee bandwagon. I think that Biden's resilience has been remarkable considering some unimpressive debate performances and unimpressive performances on the campaign trail. I would not discount buttigieg the way you are. I think there is a hunger and whether or not it's fair to take a lesson from England, I think that -- that there is an anxiety in the democratic party about going too far left. That opens the door to buttigieg and I think it also opens the door to senator klobuchar. Those of us that have spent a lot of time in Iowa know it is always volatile until about two weeks out, and because it votes late this time, I wouldn't discount Elizabeth Warren who has the deepest field frastructure in that STE, and is due for another cycle. But the big wild card is how long is this senate trial going to take, and what does it mean if it takes Warren, Sanders, klobuchar and booker off the field? Or increases the profile. They have to stay quiet. That's during the trial, and that will be a little hard. There will be a lot of press conferences out in the hallway by those folks during breaks in the trial, and I think the trial -- this is another reason why some of the political considerations here are crazy because they're going to take those folks off the field, and it's a great thing for Biden because Biden a going to be out in Iowa essentially by himself trying to ignore what's going on in Washington and talking about what people in Iowa think.
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