Transcript for Trump is 'pretty borderline for reelection' despite booming economy: Nate Silver
You know we just set another stock market record. You saw that, didn't you? The stock market hit another all-time in history high. Meaning 401(k)s and jobs. Everybody's getting rich. President trump repeatedly touting the economy after new record highs in the stock market last week and unemployment remaining at historic lows. Is a strong economy enough to boost trump to re-election in 2020? We asked fivethiryeight's Nate silver do you buy that? When the economy is good the incumbent seems to win re-election and when it isn't, he doesn't. Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush dealt with recessions. It's become a cliche, but as James carvel put it -- It's the economy stupid. The economy is between pretty good and very good. Gdp has grown about 2% per year. That's close to average. The unemployment rate is 3.6%, the lowest in 20 years. That would seem to bode well for president trump. Trump gets credit from voters for the economy. His approval rating on the economy is 52%. Quite a lot better than his overall number which is closer I spent a lot of time trying to mathematically model the impact of the economy on elections. Trump is a tricky case. Here's the complication. That big gap between the economy and trump's overall numbers mean other things matter to voters also. Everything from trump's temperament, to his treatment of immigrants, to the Ukraine, to the impeachment process. Those things aren't going away. With trump they take the good and the bad and he's border line for re-election. If the economy gets better, that probably will help trump. It could get worse. "The Wall Street journal" assigning about a 30% chance of a recession. All this history might suggest the more trump focuses on the economy the better off his re-election campaign could be. Think about Ronald Reagan. However, focus is not a term that one might associate with this president. Our thanks to Nate. You can read more at fivethiryeight.com. When we come back on the
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