Transcript for 'This Week' Roundtable: Jeb Bush Inches Closer to 2016
We just heard Marco Rubio say that Jeb bush hasn't scared him out of a possible presidential race, but bush did surprise most of the political world this week by jumping out so early becoming the first major candidate to take formal steps towards a run. Our new ABC news/"washington post" poll shows that famous name may not be enough to pull him away from the pack. ABC's Jonathan Karl starts us off. Reporter: His son may have tipped the family's hand two months ago. It's more than likely that he's giving this serious thought -- Reporter: More than likely he'll run. That he'll run. Reporter: And John Boehner a month before that. Saying you've been trying to nudge Jeb bush into thinking about running. Any success? He's had plenty of opportunities to tell me to stop and he hasn't. Reporter: But somehow pundits thought it was just talk. It's unlikely I think -- There's a lot of nervousness that Jeb bush won't run. Reporter: So Jeb bush caught most of us off guard when in a seasons greetings Facebook post he changed the game for 2016. "Happy Hanukkah. I'm actively exploring the possibility of running for president." A game changer to be sure and one that may ruin Christmas for other republicans thinking about getting into the race. Here's the problem. Every four years it seems big money gop donors get behind one establishment candidate, and a bush is the elephant in a room full of elephants. But for every advantage the swing state, spanish-speaking Jeb bush might have in a general election, he has liabilities in the primaries. Yeah, I'll take on the gop establishment. Reporter: He famously said illegal immigration is -- A different kind of crime. It's an act of love. Reporter: And this -- The rigor of the common core state standards must be the new minimum in classrooms. Reporter: Conservatives have another word for that, obamacore. Then there's bush's friendship with the Clintons. That's some seriously toxic stuff for many in his party. Jeb bush is a rio. As an active tea party member, I could never vote for him. Reporter: Even the bush family has been conflicted. I think we've got a split ballot amongst the bush senior family. Reporter: Then there's mom. We've had enough bushes. He is the best qualified person in the country. I would hope that someone else would run. Reporter: Whether his mother is into it or not, if the establishment lines up and the tea party is as divided as it was in 2012, the man some call a rio could also be called something else, the front-runner. Jeb bush. Reporter: For "This week," Jonathan Karl, ABC news, Washington. Okay, let's talk about that now with our roundtable joined by cokie Roberts, bill kristol, editor of "The weekly standard." Democrat Howard dean, former presidential candidate, governor of Vermont and republican strategy Ana Navarro. I'll start with you. You're close to Jeb bush and close to Marco Rubio. Neither one getting out yet putting in a little bit of a tough position but did it surprise you that Jeb got into this so early? Actually it didn't and the reason it didn't is because he has been telling us for the longest time that he set a time line for himself for the end of the year, and this is one of the things that you learn about Jeb bush. He says what he means. He means what he says. He had his process. He thought about the factors and he's decided to move on to this new stage by the time line that he set for himself. Bill kristol, we had gotten these rumbles before his announcement that a lot of the big republican money people were trying to coalesce behind a single candidate. It seemed like bush was trying to get out there and say I'm the guy early on. Did it make a difference? Did it freeze people? We'll see. I think -- if he was going to run which I guess he is he was smart to go early, I think and not look coy and wink, wink, nod, nod. He has to get out there and try to clear the field on the establishment side. I think what is going to happen now Marco Rubio is not intimidated. You saw that in his interview with you and I suspect he'll announce in early January and Chris Christie's timetable gets moved up and I'm must less confident than everyone in Washington that he beats Marco Rubio or Chris Christie in an actual republican primary with voters. I think that's right. I think that it's a very hard republican field to win in if you are the establishment candidate. Even though the establishment candidate always wins. Has always won. And we're living in a different political environment, and being the -- you know, the lobbying on capitol hill at the end of the session is really -- ex exempletive of this. Jamie Dimon calling -- Head of jpmorgan. The effect was to say this evil person is calling us, we should do exactly the opposite of what he says and I think that could be the case with the republicans -- I have to tell you, it's somewhat fascinating to me that the guy who's been out of public office who is not a Washington creature who proved to be a reformer as governor is being referred to as the establishment candidate as something that is, you know, not -- He is the brother and son of presidents. Well, you know -- that's okay. Well, then Hillary Clinton as the establishment candidate -- She is. That's why some of us are horrified about a bush/clinton race. Don't worry. You'll survive. Howard dean, you had a big grin on your face. I do. I think Jeb does some very interesting things. First of all, I think he'd be a formidable candidate if he wins the nomination. Second of all, he's got a tough road to hoe for the reasons these folks were talking about and, third of all, he moves people out of the race. Marco Rubio can't raise money anymore. He's done. I totally disagree. Well, this is -- A new world of fund-raising, I think. Let me tell you, do not underestimate Marco. I remember when Marco Rubio had nobody behind him. I was one of the few who when he was running against Charlie Crist -- Charlie Crist is not Jeb bush. Who started the whole new way of fund-raising and -- What is Marco Rubio's base? He's -- in the tea party he's in trouble because of his immigration views, which he's desperately trying to backpedal. Right. He's got this formidable person who is the governor in his home state who will take all the quote/unquote establishment money out. I don't understand how Marco Rubio will raise any money the way we did on the internet. I'm a huge Marco Rubio fan and only person around this table who is his constituent and as such I really hope he thinks because he has said he either does one or the other and I think we've seen this week just what a crucial role he's playing on foreign relations. He's slated to be the next chair -- To run -- Just tell him not to run. She's with -- And I think, wait a minute he knocks Romney out of the race. I think that's the biggest impact of Jeb bush getting into the race. But I want to go to bill kristol with something else. We saw Rand Paul get into this fight with Marco Rubio this week. He seems to be the newest kind of republican candidate this time around who certainly seems to have the ambition and the drive to go all the way. He's certainly going to run. I don't think he'll make it all the way, not because of anything personal become Rand Paul. I just think the views he has on foreign policy are the views 15%, 20% of the party. I mean just think on the Cuba issue. Marco Rubio has probably 40 senators who agree with him of the entire leadership and all the presidential candidates and Rand Paul is by himself. He can get on more media attention than Christie and Rubio and walker and jindal and all the guys fighting for -- they're hawkish -- the republicans are going to nominate a hawkish presidential candidate, I think. But if it's consistent with what Rand Paul has done all along, he picks fights, and it's a way for -- it's a vehicle to -- To get attention. To get attention. After Jeb bush, we don't have a clue who the nominee is and that's what makes it so interesting. It is. And all of these guys and maybe some women -- The democrats are just looking so darned boring. We'll get into that later but -- Nice contrast. Okay, guys, before we go to
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