As virus cases spike, financial outlook for airlines dims

With coronavirus cases spiking in the U.S. and Europe, the financial outlook of the world's airlines is getting worse

Airlines will lose more than $157 billion over this year and next because of the pandemic, their main trade group said on Tuesday,

The forecast from the International Air Transport Association was worse than the group's June estimate of $100 billion in losses for the two years.

The trade group’s chief, Alexandre de Juniac, said that without $173 billion in aid from governments, the airline industry would have suffered “massive” bankruptcies.

“We cannot wait for the vaccine that will not be fully available before mid-2021,” de Juniac said. “We need testing in the meantime.”

Lufthansa Chairman and CEO Carsten Spohr called passenger testing “a bridge toward the vaccination of travelers.”

Airlines and airports have launched trial testing programs in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and elsewhere. It is unclear, however, whether test results will ever replace quarantines and other restrictions.

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said that once vaccines are widely available, the Australian carrier will likely require cross-border travelers to show proof of vaccination.

Last year, airlines carried 4.5 billion passengers, according to the trade group. It estimates that number will plunge to 1.8 billion this year, then rise to 2.8 billion next year. Passenger revenue is expected to decline 69% this year, but cargo loads are expected to rise next year partly from the shipment of vaccines.