Southern California is about to get soaked -- the good and the potentially bad

The fire weather alerts are gone now, replaced with flood watches.

January 25, 2025, 5:57 PM

The Los Angeles area is preparing for its first rain since wildfires first broke out weeks ago.

That's good news to help dampen the still-active fires and soils, but if it’s too much rain at once, it could bring its own set of significant issues, including a risk of debris flows.

The fire weather alerts are gone now, replaced with flood watches and winter storm warnings in the mountains.

Here's what to expect.

Rain will begin slowly Saturday, with scattered spotty showers, before increasing to become more widespread Sunday and Monday.

PHOTO: Weather graphic
An ABC News graphic shows the weather forecast for Southern California for Jan. 26, 2025.
ABC News

Around noon Sunday, rain will become more likely, along with snow in the mountains.

On Sunday afternoon and evening, there may be heavier downpours at times, potentially even a thunderstorm or two.

Heavy rain is the biggest risk factor, because the burn scars over this area have very weak soils and foundations. Light rain might not affect much, but if the rain is heavy enough and persists for long enough, debris flows will be possible.

PHOTO: Pacific Palisades aftermath ahead of Trump's visit in Los Angeles
A view of burned businesses in downtown Pacific Palisades following the massive Los Angeles fire ahead of President Donald Trump's visit in Los Angeles, California, United States January 24, 2025. (Photo by Tayfun Cokun/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Anadolu via Getty Images

The National Weather Service is giving a 10% to 20% chance for significant debris flows over the Los Angeles County burn scars.

In fact, the flood watches are only in effect because of the burn scars – if the LA fires wouldn’t have happened over the last few weeks, the weekend rain likely would not have warranted flood alerts.

The burn scars under flood watch are The Eaton, Palisades, Franklin, Bridge, and Hughes burn scars.

PHOTO: Weather graphic
An ABC News graphic shows the weather forecast for Southern California for Jan. 26, 2025.
ABC News

If the area makes it through the next few days of rain without any significant debris flows, this will be the best-cast scenario to return rainfall to the drought-stricken region.

Total rainfall accumulation of under 1 inch is most likely over this multi-day rain event, but there is a chance for between 1 inch to 1.5 inches of rain on the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains.

There is also the chance for lightning, which would indicate heavier rainfall and which could also start new fires.

Higher elevations will see snow, above 4,000 feet.

On the San Gabriel mountains, there is a chance for 14 inches of snow Sunday through Monday, along with wind gusts up to 45 mph.

Rain will likely still be falling off and on through Sunday morning and into the afternoon.

Sunshine is expected to return on Tuesday.

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