In one of the only House upsets to come out of Tuesday, ABC News reports that Nebraska Republican Don Bacon is projected to win reelection against Democrat Tony Vargas in the 2nd District. He leads by 2 points, 51% to 49%. There was general consensus that Bacon was highly vulnerable this cycle, especially because Harris looked likely to romp to victory (and is projected to win) in Nebraska's 2nd District, which casts its own electoral vote. 538's forecast put Vargas as a two-to-one favorite to win (classified as a "lean Democrat"), and at Inside Elections we rated the race Tilt Democratic (also one tick off of "Toss-up"). But Harris is projected to win the Omaha-based seat by only 3.7%, and Vargas fell short yet again.

Democratic candidates in the House and Senate races performed slightly better than Harris, and ABC News is also reporting that Rep. Susie Lee is projected to barely hold onto her House seat in the state's 3rd Congressional District. With 98% of the expected vote reporting, she has 51% to her Republican challenger's 49%.

The state has four seats in the House, and Democrats hold the three seats in and around Las Vegas, where the vast majority of voters live. Republicans had aimed to flip all three seats, but Democrats held them at bay. Lee's was the closest of these contests, rated as a toss-up in our forecast.

After days of counting in the extremely close presidential race in Nevada, ABC News reports that Trump is projected to win the state's 6 electoral votes. With 97% percent of the expected vote reporting, Harris has 47% to Trump's 51%. Nevada has voted for the winner in every presidential contest since 1912 except 2016, when the state went for Hillary Clinton, who did win the popular vote. It's been trending to the right of the country as a whole in recent years, and Biden won the state by only 2 points in 2020 compared to 4 points nationally.

Like other Democratic Senate candidates running in key presidential swing states, Casey touted his moderate, even Trump-aligned, credentials on the campaign trail and has outperformed Harris (as well as other Democrats in statewide races). But, if current race standings hold, he could be the only one of those swing-state Democratic candidates to lose. Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Rep. Elissa Slotkin in Michigan have both been projected to win their races in states that Trump carried. Meanwhile, Sen. Jacky Rosen and Rep. Ruben Gallego are also holding onto leads in the U.S. Senate races in Nevada and Arizona, respectively, despite Trump leading in both states.

In some cases, it may be more accurate to say that Republican candidates underperformed Trump, more than Democrats overperformed Harris. For example, in Pennsylvania, Harris is netting around 36,000 more votes than Casey, while Trump has over 140,000 more votes than McCormick — that means Trump voters weren't necessarily splitting their tickets to support Casey, but sitting out the downballot races completely. Much will surely be said in coming days and weeks about this ticket-splitting and what it may mean for both parties' strategies going forward.