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Undecided races of the 2024 election: Live results and analysis
We're tracking unresolved races in the Senate, House and more.
Former President Donald Trump has won back the White House, and Republicans have won control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives. But we still don't know how big the GOP's Senate and House majorities will be, since there are still several races that don't have a projected winner. The outcomes of these elections could have major implications for how easy it will be for Trump to enact his second-term agenda.
However, it could be a while before we know who won these races. California — home to multiple undecided House races — is still working through counting all its ballots. Other races will require ranked-choice voting to resolve. And still others, like Pennsylvania's Senate race, could go to a recount.
We at 538 will be tracking it all on this live blog dedicated to all the outstanding races of the 2024 election. Join us for live updates, analysis and commentary until the last major race is decided.
Key Headlines
Who's on track to win Arizona?
Arizona is one of two states in which we still don't know who won the presidential election and one of four where the Senate winner is still uncertain.
With 70% of the expected vote reporting in the presidential race, Trump currently has 52% and Harris has 47%. If you do the math, Harris would need to win about 56% of the outstanding vote in order to take the lead.
But with 70% of the expected vote reporting in the U.S. Senate race, Gallego is at 50% and Lake is at 48%. Lake would need to win at least about 52% of the uncounted ballots to emerge victorious.
The Maine Event
Hi everyone! Now that my time on ABC News’s House Decision Desk has come to a close, I’ll be chiming in here over the next few days as we get final results in outstanding races across the country.
First up is in Maine, where ABC News reports that Harris is projected to win statewide. She currently leads, 53% to 45%. But Maine is one of the two states that allocates electoral votes by congressional district, and Trump carried the 2nd District, so the state’s electoral votes actually split 3 for Harris and 1 for Trump.
If you’re wondering why there’s no projection in the Senate race despite Sen. Angus King currently running 18 points ahead of his nearest opponent, that’s because King has 52 percent of the vote, and will need to finish with above 50 percent to avoid heading to a ranked choice voting instant runoff against his two opponents, Republican Demi Kouzounas and Democrat David Costello. King would be highly favored in an instant runoff as well.
Brown doesn't need much to catch up
As Geoff mentioned, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is carrying a slight lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown, but with 7% of the expected vote still outstanding, Brown needs to win only about 57% of the remaining expected vote to catch up. If the county partisanship holds up in the way Geoff just described, Brown winning 57% of the remaining expected vote is possible.
Las Vegas could help Rosen pull out a win in Nevada's U.S. Senate race
Clark County, home to Las Vegas, reported some 48,000 votes in Nevada's U.S. Senate race, which amounts of almost all of the remaining votes in the county at this point. This tranche of ballots was relatively Democratic-leaning, in keeping with past return patterns that we've seen in Nevada. Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen made a net gain of nearly 15,000 votes from this batch, which put her into the lead statewide: She now leads Republican Sam Brown by about 1 point, 47.6% to 46.7%, with 93% of the expected vote reporting. At this point, there are perhaps 30,000 or more outstanding votes in Washoe County, which includes Reno and is pretty 50-50 in terms of partisanship, and a few thousand in redder localities like Nye and Douglas Counties. Rosen has a bit less than a 13,000-vote lead statewide, which seems somewhat likely to hold up — but that's not a given.