Ohio is projected to vote “yes” on Issue 1, a proposed constitutional amendment that enshrines abortion rights in the state constitution. The courts had previously blocked Gov. Mike DeWine’s six-week abortion ban, and the new constitutional amendment protects the right to abortion through fetal viability, around 24 weeks of pregnancy.

—Leah Askarinam, 538

As Leah mentioned, ABC News now projects that Ohioans have voted to add protections for abortion to their state constitution. According to estimates from the New York Times, the abortion referendum in Ohio is on track for a +15 point "yes" margin. Compared to a partisan benchmark of Ohio — the 2020 election — that's a 23 point "swing" for Democrats, since they lost by 8 in 2020. Yes, I know, this is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's not the topline I'm interested in anyway. Rather, I'm looking at the results of ABC News's exit poll, which preliminarily shows that Trump only won the people who turned this year out by 3 points back in 2020. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest about 5 points of the Democrats' 23 point swing is due to a turnout advantage, then. The rest of it is due to residual overperformance of abortion as an issue.

The upshot here? Democrats are continuing a pattern of beating expectations in off-year elections, likely due to a concentration of highly engaged, educated voters in their coalition. We may be looking at a new era of off-year Democratic overperformance.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538

One race I'm watching in New Jersey is in the 3rd Legislative District, where Republican state Sen. Ed Durr is running for re-election two years after he pulled off the upset of the year by defeating powerful state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Durr, a former truck driver, spent barely any money that year and his win rocked the balance of political power in the state. This year, he's facing a spirited challenge from former state Assemblyman John Burzichelli. With a little more than half the expected votes counted, per the New York Times, Burzichelli leads Durr, 62 to 38 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

ABC News projects that Beshear will win re-election as governor of Kentucky. In national elections Kentucky has been reliably Republican, and Trump won the state by nearly 26 points in 2020. But Beshear has been popular with the state's voters and way ahead in fundraising. The vote stands at 53 to 47 percent, with 83 percent of the expected vote in. Kentucky is a unique case, but this could give Democrats, worried about Biden's favorability numbers, an emotional boost ahead of the presidential campaign season.

—Monica Potts, 538

I think it’s fair to say that we’re in uncharted territory in the world of modern-day elections. There are two possible options that account for Democrats’ success tonight: One, the races that took place were so localized and dependent on individual candidates that it’s no reflection at all of the national political environment, since voters regularly differentiate between state and federal elections. The other possibility is that voters are disentangling the presidency from their political preferences writ large, and the Democratic Party hasn’t taken a hit even though its standard-bearer, President Joe Biden, has an average approval rating below 40 percent: “Tonight feels a lot like 2022, when Democrats won in spite of Biden, not because of him. In 2024, we'll see if Biden can win in spite of Biden.”

—Leah Askarinam, 538