New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on

Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.

Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.

ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.


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Still waiting on the home of Mitt Romney's summer home

I've been keeping an eye on Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, where Romney owns a summer home. But so far, the community that gave Trump 30 percent of the vote in 2016 has yet to weigh in.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor


Trump is angry

Trump's victory speech tonight struck me by how angry it was, especially after his attempt to be a little more conciliatory following Iowa. He wouldn't even mention Haley by name, calling her an imposter instead. He suggested her ally Sununu was on drugs, and brought on Ramaswamy to launch more invectives in her direction. If you're Haley, and you relish getting under Trump's skin in a way that few other candidates have managed so far, why are you going to drop out? Haley is wily and has delighted in running against those who have dismissed her for as long as she's been in politics, so I imagine speeches like Trump's tonight only fuel her.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Ramaswamy says Haley should drop out

Trump gave Ramaswamy 60 seconds on the mic, who used his time to suggest that Haley staying in the race is the "ugly underbelly of American politics." In political science we call that "exit talk," and according to research, women who run for the presidency have been subject to more "exit talk" than men.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor


Trump wants everyone to know that he is winning

In a rambling speech with his former challengers Sen. Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy behind him, Trump criticized Haley for giving what he called a victory speech. "She failed badly," he said. He also had words for Gov. Chris Sununu, who'd endorsed her. He said that he would beat Biden and also claimed again, falsely, that he won in 2020. Ramaswamy took over the mic to praise Trump before Trump transitioned to immigration, repeating many of his false claims about open borders. In all, he was ready to dismiss Haley and pivot to the general election.

—Monica Potts, 538


Final thoughts: Trump still dominates, but weaknesses remain among GOP voters

Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections