New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
Not all nominees win New Hampshire
Worth remembering that in 2020, the person who ultimately won the Democratic primary finished ... checks notes ... fifth in New Hampshire.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Can polls measure electability 10 months out?
In her speech, Haley mentioned polling showing her beating Joe Biden while Trump does not. Can you trust those findings? When I analyzed the same question in 2016, I found that voters who said they'd back one candidate but not another during the primary often mean it during the general.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Reasonable for Haley to play for time
This race is unprecedented in recent history, with a twice-impeached president seeking to return to the White House. Given that, and given that so many delegates are still outstanding, I can see why Haley wouldn't want to throw in the towel quite as quickly as a candidate might in prior years.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Haley has some time to decide
I agree with Geoffrey on this one. While she claims to be in it for the long haul, the truth is that Haley has plenty of time to think about her decision. With a month till South Carolina votes, she can take a beat to see if the polls change or the money dries up. If she finds her position deteriorating, there's always time to make an exit before South Carolina starts voting, and I don't know that there would be much difference, other than possibly some short-term embarrassment, between dropping out now or next week.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Final thoughts: Trump still dominates, but weaknesses remain among GOP voters
Big picture, this was a good night for Trump, who gets another win under his belt, avoids the embarrassment of losing an early state, and gets to compete in much more favorable territory from now on. It's obvious he's going to be the Republican nominee for president. But I don't think we should lose sight of the fact that just under half of Republican primary voters in the first two states voted for someone other than Trump, even as his inevitability has become apparent. I do think that should be a cause for some concern among Republicans moving forward, given that the general election will likely be brutally close and even a small drop in Republican support for Trump could prove fatal. The longer Haley stays in, the more data we'll get on just how many GOP voters there are who are not entirely on board with Trump, especially as she steps up her direct attacks on him. There's been so much conversation about Biden's struggles within the Democratic coalition — which are real and worthy of attention — but Trump may face similar challenges as the nominee as well.
—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections