I've been keeping an eye on Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, where Romney owns a summer home. But so far, the community that gave Trump 30 percent of the vote in 2016 has yet to weigh in.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

Trump's victory speech tonight struck me by how angry it was, especially after his attempt to be a little more conciliatory following Iowa. He wouldn't even mention Haley by name, calling her an imposter instead. He suggested her ally Sununu was on drugs, and brought on Ramaswamy to launch more invectives in her direction. If you're Haley, and you relish getting under Trump's skin in a way that few other candidates have managed so far, why are you going to drop out? Haley is wily and has delighted in running against those who have dismissed her for as long as she's been in politics, so I imagine speeches like Trump's tonight only fuel her.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Trump gave Ramaswamy 60 seconds on the mic, who used his time to suggest that Haley staying in the race is the "ugly underbelly of American politics." In political science we call that "exit talk," and according to research, women who run for the presidency have been subject to more "exit talk" than men.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

In a rambling speech with his former challengers Sen. Tim Scott and Vivek Ramaswamy behind him, Trump criticized Haley for giving what he called a victory speech. "She failed badly," he said. He also had words for Gov. Chris Sununu, who'd endorsed her. He said that he would beat Biden and also claimed again, falsely, that he won in 2020. Ramaswamy took over the mic to praise Trump before Trump transitioned to immigration, repeating many of his false claims about open borders. In all, he was ready to dismiss Haley and pivot to the general election.

—Monica Potts, 538

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538