As Dan mentioned earlier, the pre-election polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t seem to be missing Trump voters. But if Biden stays at 67 percent, as Nathaniel observed, it looks like polls of the Democratic primary in New Hampshire might have understated Biden’s support by quite a bit.

—Mary Radcliffe, 538

Edison Research, from which we get our election results, is separating out write-in votes for Biden in the Democratic primary. And with 17 percent of the expected vote reporting, Biden write-ins account for 67 percent of the vote. Phillips is pulling 20 percent, other write-ins are taking 6 percent and Williamson is getting 4 percent.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Geoffrey, I wonder if Nevada will factor into Haley’s decision about whether to drop out. If she does get some favorable media attention from winning the primary, maybe that will improve her standing in South Carolina. Alternatively, if “none of the above” embarrasses her, maybe she’ll drop out.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538

Haley focused her speech on South Carolina's Feb. 24 primary. But that's not technically the next contest in the Republican presidential primary. The next Republican electoral event is actually Nevada's GOP primary on Feb. 6. However, the Nevada GOP opted against using the state-run primary and instead will use caucuses on Feb. 8 to allocate delegates to candidates. As a result, the Nevada primary is a kind of "beauty contest" — a vote with no bearing on delegate allocation.

But it gets a bit stranger from there. As part of the filing rules for the caucuses, the Nevada GOP required candidates to not enter the primary taking place two days earlier. Some candidates, including Trump, didn't file for the primary. But Haley, perhaps thinking Trump winning the caucuses was a sure thing, filed for the primary and not the caucuses. So now Haley is essentially unopposed in the primary — there are a few minor candidates and drop-outs like Tim Scott and Mike Pence — and Trump is unopposed in the caucuses. Will Haley be able to play up a win in Nevada? Unclear.

But it's also possible that pro-Trump Republicans could make a concerted effort to take advantage of Nevada's unusual "none of these candidates" ballot option. Encouraging Trump voters to cast a vote for none of the above could keep Haley from winning with a majority, should enough choose it. All of this may feel about as crazy as putting your life's savings on black at the roulette table. However, state parties can opt against using a state-run primary to allocate their delegates and instead use a party-run event like a caucus — there are many examples throughout the history of presidential nomination contests. It's just not usually something that happens in an early-voting state.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.

Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.

Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.

—G. Elliott Morris, 538