New Hampshire primary 2024: Trump projected to win, Haley vows to fight on
Trump and Biden had strong showings in the first-in-the-nation primary.
Former President Donald Trump will win the 2024 New Hampshire GOP primary, ABC News projects. As of 10 p.m. Eastern, Trump was ahead by less than 10 percentage points. While that represents a slight overperformance of polling for former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, even a close loss is a big hit to her prospects, as she had staked her campaign on a strong performance in the Granite State. Haley spoke shortly after the projection to emphasize that "this race is far from over," while Trump (and his allies) amped up calls for her to drop out.
ABC News has also projected that President Joe Biden will win the Granite State's Democratic primary. A comfortable write-in victory for him despite not even being on the ballot is a good sign for the incumbent.
Latest headlines:
Not all nominees win New Hampshire
Worth remembering that in 2020, the person who ultimately won the Democratic primary finished ... checks notes ... fifth in New Hampshire.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Can polls measure electability 10 months out?
In her speech, Haley mentioned polling showing her beating Joe Biden while Trump does not. Can you trust those findings? When I analyzed the same question in 2016, I found that voters who said they'd back one candidate but not another during the primary often mean it during the general.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Reasonable for Haley to play for time
This race is unprecedented in recent history, with a twice-impeached president seeking to return to the White House. Given that, and given that so many delegates are still outstanding, I can see why Haley wouldn't want to throw in the towel quite as quickly as a candidate might in prior years.
—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor
Answer: Haley has some time to decide
I agree with Geoffrey on this one. While she claims to be in it for the long haul, the truth is that Haley has plenty of time to think about her decision. With a month till South Carolina votes, she can take a beat to see if the polls change or the money dries up. If she finds her position deteriorating, there's always time to make an exit before South Carolina starts voting, and I don't know that there would be much difference, other than possibly some short-term embarrassment, between dropping out now or next week.
—Mary Radcliffe, 538
Haley — and Trump — have surged ahead of the New Hampshire primary
Haley has been on quite a tear in New Hampshire polls over the last two months. She stands at 36 percent in 538's final New Hampshire polling average, compared to 19 percent on Dec. 1, 2023. Just ahead of the Iowa caucuses, that surge had narrowed Trump's margin in the Granite State to a little over 10 percentage points, much lower than his average margin across the other states.
Since Iowa, however, Trump has also surged in New Hampshire, shooting up to 54 percent percent, his best number of the whole cycle in the state. He is now 18 points ahead of Haley. It's likely Trump gained some votes from Ramaswamy, who was ideologically closest to him and endorsed the former president on stage in Iowa after withdrawing following his poor performance there. It is also possible that Trump will get a last-minute bump from DeSantis's drop out and endorsement on Sunday that is not fully captured by the polls.
Haley hitting, say, 40 percent in New Hampshire would be a feat. Across the polls we've collected, no other candidate even came close to that mark in any state. With such a showing, Haley could, somewhat credibly, claim a moral victory heading into Nevada and South Carolina next month. But, of course, moral victories do not win nominations.
—G. Elliott Morris, 538