With results coming in from Virginia, I'm keeping an eye on the Commonwealth's southeastern corner. Not only is it home to Virginia Beach, the largest city in Virginia, it's also home to a substantial number of military families. In 2020 at least, donations from those serving in the U.S. military split more evenly between Democrats and Republicans than some might expect. So far, Trump is winning Virginia Beach by roughly a 2 to 1 margin, while Haley is keeping it closer in neighboring Norfolk with 42 percent of the vote so far.

—Dan Hopkins, 538 contributor

ABC News projects that Trump will win the GOP primary in Maine. With about 8 percent of the expected vote counted, he leads Haley, 69 percent to 22 percent.

—Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Folks who are reading a 538 live blog have probably seen the general election polling showing Trump leading nationally by 2-3 percentage points and leading in the battleground state by more like 3-5 points. That is the answer you are looking for if you want to understand the current state of the races. Emphasis on current, meaning 8 months before the actual election when polls are historically not predictive. Now, there may be caveats about polls shifting less than usual over the coming months because Trump and Biden are already so well defined. But that's a theory, not a fact.

One dynamic in the primary that I do think is worth thinking about in understanding whether those numbers will shift or how, is where the challenge is coming from in both parties. Trump is being challenged by someone who is ideologically closer to Biden than to his Right flank. Biden's most enthusiastic opposition is coming from his left flank, aka not ideologically anywhere close to Trump. Folks always have the option of staying home or voting third party, but if I was Trump's campaign I would not like that dynamic ... particularly given that Biden's victory in 2020 came from an overperformance among independent/moderate voters.

Look at me, doing the thing I just said we shouldn't do.

—Galen Druke, 538

With 28 percent of the expected vote reported, the Republican presidential primary in Vermont looks so close. Right now, Trump and Haley are tied with 48 percent.

—Monica Potts, 538

As we explained yesterday, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Trump all set out to defeat several incumbent Republicans in the Texas state House yesterday (albeit for different reasons). The Associated Press has now projected winners in most of those races, and here's how they turned out: In total, at least eight Republican incumbents lost their primaries after being targeted by one of those three men. Another seven, including Speaker Dade Phelan, were forced into runoffs.

Abbott's muscle looks like it was the most effective: Five of the 10 incumbents he targeted (over their opposition to his school-voucher plan) lost, and another three went to runoffs. Trump also did OK: Two of the eight incumbents he targeted lost, and three more went to runoffs. Paxton didn't have as high of a success rate: Only seven of the 35 incumbents he targeted lost, although seven more were forced into runoffs. That's maybe not too surprising, though, since unlike Abbott, Paxton didn't put a ton of money where his mouth was.

—Nathaniel Rakich, 538