Obama Reorganizes Democratic Field
Jan. 16, 2007 — -- With Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) likely to enter the presidential race in the next few weeks, the Democratic 2008 field has been significantly clarified (for now) by the announcement from Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) today that he is forming an exploratory committee.
Although there are plenty of other credible candidates in the race, three people -- Obama, Clinton and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards -- stand out from the rest of the pack.
It is a large pack that so far includes Sens. Joe Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who have announced exploratory committees, and others, such as former Gen. Wesley Clark and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.
But those three -- Clinton, Obama and Edwards -- have the three key "Ms" far in excess of the other prospective candidates: money, media access and majesty.
In fact, Obama leapfrogs over Edwards in all three categories by entering the race.
Money: Obama, like Clinton, will be able to raise campaign cash relatively easily, through big, fancy events, Internet donations and direct mail. We are likely talking tens of millions of dollars (with a maximum of $2,100 from any one person), compared with the other candidates, who will struggle to reach the $10 million mark. Edwards is positioned to have an easier time raising money than everyone else besides Clinton and Obama.
Media access: In the last few weeks, even before he was a candidate, Obama has been on "Monday Night Football," the "Tonight Show" and "Oprah." He can get on traditional news outlets as well as on untraditional forums -- almost at will -- as can Hillary Clinton. Again, Edwards lags the two front-runners in this area but is ahead of the others.
Majesty: Building excitement, raising poll numbers, generating buzz -- all are key at this point. Watch Obama walk into a room or through an airport, and people recognize him and are drawn to him. Again, with his best-selling book and favorable coverage, he is drawing closer to Clinton on this score. Once again, Edwards is not in their league, but he is well ahead of Dodd, Biden, Richardson, Vilsack, Clark, etc. Obama is certifiably famous now -- even outside the political world -- and that is a barrier that most presidential candidates don't get over even by the end of their campaigns.
Hillary Clinton still has a lot of assets in this race, and Obama has not stolen too much that is tangible away from her (beyond the spotlight, for now). But he presents the strongest alternative for a party that has many members (including several in Congress) who hunger for a non-Clinton alternative. Watch closely in the coming days to see which former Clinton (Bill and Hillary) supporters declare allegiance to Obama.
And watch closely to see how much pressure Edwards puts on both Clinton and Obama to follow his lead in support of cutting off funding for the war in Iraq.
To be sure, there are questions about Obama -- about his experience, his policy platforms, his history, his readiness for the craziness of the process. But make no mistake: There is a Big 3 in the Democratic field, and Obama is very much a part of it.