How to bet Oregon-Ohio State
— -- With the inaugural College Football National Championship on Monday night, two of ESPN Chalk's college football experts -- Phil Steele and Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet -- give you their picks, along with prop-bet advice from John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information.
All odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas as of Monday morning.
Matchup: Oregon Ducks vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Opened Oregon -7; now Oregon -6
Total: Opened 73.5; now 74
Phil Steele says: The College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night wraps up a crazy bowl season that saw the underdogs incredibly win 20 of the 38 bowls outright. To put that in perspective, in the previous four years combined, underdogs were only 48-90 SU. Those underdogs winning outright ruined a lot of bowl confidence contest selections, including mine -- I went 2-4 SU and ATS, That came on the heels of a regular season in which my picks went 112-38 SU and 74-74-1 ATS.
As far as the championship game goes, I am not comfortable going against either team in this one. Oregon comes in on a nine-game ATS winning streak, while Ohio State is a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS as an underdog under Urban Meyer, including winning its last two games impressively. Therefore, I will defer to the total in this one. Usually, title games are lower scoring because of a long layoff from the regular season finale. However, this year's new College Football Playoff sets up nicely as both teams just played 11 days ago and shouldn't have any problems with their offensive tempo.
Despite facing two top 15 defenses in yards per game allowed, the Buckeyes were able to put up 558 yards against Wisconsin and 537 yards against Alabama. To put into perspective how impressive those performances were, that was 284 yards more than what the Badgers were allowing on the season and 225 yards more than what the Crimson Tide were allowing coming into the game. Now, Ohio State faces Oregon's No. 84 defense that allows 422 yards per game.
A big reason for the Buckeyes' offensive success has been QB Cardale Jones' ability to stretch opposing defenses vertically, averaging 16.7 yards per completion. It also helps that RB Ezekiel Elliott has run for a combined 450 yards in those two games.
On the other side, the Ducks offense is averaging 194 more yards per game than what their opponents are allowing in their last six games. Only twice all year have the Ducks been held below 42 points and neither of those have occurred in their current nine-game win streak. Now the Buckeyes defense gets only a few extra days to prepare for Marcus Mariota and the Ducks' fast-paced offense.
There will be lots of speed and playmakers on offense for both teams here. Buckeyes games have gone over the total in 12 of the last 13 since the opener, with the Buckeyes offense scoring at least 42 points in 11 of those games. Look for a high-scoring, entertaining game that comes down to the final possession.
ATS pick: Over 75.5
Bruce Marshall says: We have modest concerns about the risk of counting upon Jones one more time, as he's been lucky that a handful of deep, rainbow-like bombs the past two games have ended up in Buckeye hands instead of opponents in the past two games (the go-ahead 47-yard TD pass to Devin Smith vs. Alabama was helped greatly by a Tide DB who fell down), but Jones demonstrated a definite big-play bent as well as plenty of resilience and moxie when rallying OSU last week in New Orleans. And there is no shortage of big-play ability from Ohio State.
Ohio State is going to need all of this offense because slowing the Oregon attack (47.2 PPG, ranking second only to Baylor's 48.2 PGG), which "tempos" much faster than Alabama or any team the Buckeyes faced in 2014, is going to be a chore for Meyer's defense -- a defense that scouts believe might be a step slow (particularly in the secondary) despite the presence of established playmakers such as non-stop LB Joshua Perry (team-best 113 tackles) and Big Ten Defensive MVP DE Joey Bosa.
In the end, the Ducks might have a few more edges in an anticipated shootout, especially with the near mistake-free Mariota and the Oregon O (a nation-low 10 giveaways) stretching the Buckeye defense. Since their Oct. 2 home loss to Arizona, when the offensive line was depleted, the Ducks have won nine straight (8-0-1 ATS), with all wins by 12 or more points. The high-powered offenses both ways (the teams combined for more than 92 PPG this season) might make over a slightly easier sell than either side, despite an aggressive total priced in the mid 70s (and rising).
But if coaching is going to influence our recommendation on a preferred side, we are hard-pressed not to shade the Buckeyes' Meyer, who has two BCS titles to his credit while at Florida, a 13-2 spread mark in the underdog role dating to his days at Utah in 2003-04 and a startling 34-9 ATS with a over a week to prepare.
Pick: Ohio State (lean to the over)
Prop bets
Cardale Jones rushing yards: 42.5 (O/U -110)
Jones opened eyes on New Year's Day on one particular play: a 27-yard rush that showcased both his athleticism and ability to finish a run, bowling over a defender inside the Alabama red zone to set up a touchdown two plays later. Jones' opponent was no slouch defensively, ranking 15th in the country in defensive efficiency. Compare that to Oregon's rank (46th), and it's tempting to assume Jones could be set up for rushing success against the Ducks defense, but dig a little deeper. Oregon's defensive efficiency rank jumps from 46th to 12th in the country on QB rush plays (which include sacks), while Alabama's efficiency drops to 46th on those plays. Oregon gets sacks on 6 percent of pass plays this season (same as Alabama), but Jones' Buckeyes led for the last 27 minutes of the semifinal, and he only threw 11 passes in the second half (but was still sacked twice). If Oregon performs the way Vegas thinks it will (O/U 41 points), expect Jones to throw more (and run less), all while putting him at risk for more sacks.
The play: Under
Royce Freeman rushing yards: 92.5 (O/U -110)
In his last nine games, Freeman has averaged 110.8 rush yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush. These games came against eight Pac-12 schools and Florida State (the only school to hold him below 92.5 rush yards). Those schools averaged a defensive rushing efficiency rank of 60th in the country on non-quarterback running plays, while Ohio State ranks 89th. On non-quarterback rushes, Ohio State is allowing an average of almost a half-yard more per rush (5.0) than those nine teams Freeman was successful against (4.6).
Freeman had this success against schools who (mostly) have seen the Oregon offense before. Consider also that the Buckeyes have allowed 53 rushes by non-quarterbacks to gain at least 10 yards, tied for 76th in the country. The high number of 10-plus yard rushes allowed leaves Ohio State reliant on second-level tackling, something that will be harder to do effectively if the Ducks offense spreads the Buckeyes defense too thin. The size and speed combination Freeman possesses will give Ohio State big problems if the Buckeyes' game plan focuses too much on slowing Mariota.
The play: Over