Bill Belichick's sound decision
— -- It wasn't quite "fourth-and-2," but Bill Belichick's decision to take the wind against Peyton Manning in overtime Sunday night, denying Tom Brady first crack at the ball, certainly raised some eyebrows.
Before we dissect the decision, it's hard to believe this game even reached that point, as Denver had a 24-0 lead in "Manning-Brady XIV" thanks to the Patriots losing three first-quarter fumbles. It marked the 10th time in 14 meetings that one of the quarterbacks held at least a three-score lead over the other. But despite it being the greatest quarterback rivalry ever, we had never previously seen these two engage in a classic shootout played within a tight scoring range.
When it looked like things were slipping away for Manning, he made his best throws of the night on an improbable 80-yard touchdown drive to tie the game at 31-31 with 3:06 left. Manning has a record 40 fourth-quarter comeback wins and he was attempting to lead his 52nd game-winning drive, which would have set an NFL record ( Dan Marino also led 51 game-winning drives). That sent the game into overtime.
The rules have changed for overtime, yet every coach has basically used the same strategies from the old system. Belichick, like the maverick he is, became the first coach in 34 modified overtime games to take the wind versus receiving the ball first. He's the first to do it in any NFL overtime game since Marty Mornhinweg did so with the Lions in 2002. (That was during the old overtime system in which the first score immediately ended the game, which was Mornhinweg's/the Lions' fate).
On Sunday, the game-time temperature was 22 degrees with a 6-degree wind chill. The winds were gusting at more than 20 mph, but in overtime surely a team still takes the ball first with these quarterbacks, right? Manning's inability to succeed in cold weather has been somewhat overstated, as we'll discuss later, but did Belichick know some secret math to make that decision? Or did he just not fear Manning's ability in the cold weather?
Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz asked Belichick after the game whether any factors beyond the wind played into his decision. "Nope. That was it. If it hadn't been a strong wind, we would have taken the ball," Belichick said.
So this was the ultimate "take the wind" strategy. But was it logical to give Manning the ball considering that the Pats have Brady?
Manning's cold-weather myth
This was Manning's 19th career start with the kickoff temperature at 40 degrees or lower. In those 19 games, he has produced the following: a n 8-11 record with 407-of-653 (62.3 percent) passing for 4,638 yards, 7.10 yards per attempt, 29 touchdowns, 24 interceptions and an 83.1 passer rating.
While this is below his usual performance level, there are some issues to address here. Seventeen of the 19 games were on the road, where it's generally tougher to play. And in two of the losses, Manning sat out most of the game in order to rest for the playoffs.
What perpetuates the myth of Manning being bad in the cold is that he had three memorable playoff losses in the 2002-04 seasons against the Jets (2002) and Patriots (2003-04). Three of his seven interceptions in those games came in the fourth quarter with the Colts trailing by 17 to 41 points overall. However, he put up some big clutch performances before those games, including leading a comeback with the Colts in 2002 on a snowy, 25-degree day in Denver.
In freezing conditions Sunday night, Manning's 70.4 passer rating ended his record streak of 23 regular-season games with a passer rating over 90.0. It was an atypical Manning performance, but some will say it was typical of him in cold weather. After all, he used to play his home games indoors with the Colts.
In Manning's nine complete "cold games" since 2006, he has 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 102.1 passer rating. His 80.2 Total QBR in games played at 40 degrees or less is the NFL's best since 2006, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Manning also gave his team at least a fourth-quarter tie in eight of nine games. The one time he failed was a 2010 loss in New England when he came up just short of a 17-point comeback in the final minutes.
To win Super Bowl XLVIII, the Broncos will need better games out of Manning than the one he played Sunday night. If Denver secures the top seed, Manning could play two cold-weather games in January as well as a February Super Bowl in New Jersey.
His arm strength's not going to improve following four neck operations, but as Manning showed even in the 12-degree playoff loss to Baltimore last January, he can still make clutch throws and put his team in position to win.
Manning has had a fourth-quarter lead in 11 consecutive playoff games. No other quarterback has done that. The fact that his record is only 6-5 is not fully reflective of his play. Once in a blue moon you get the Jacoby Jones- Rahim Moore touchdown, and sometimes a punt unexpectedly hits Tony Carter in overtime. Manning was on the sideline during both of those crucial plays in what became overtime losses for Denver.
Whether it's against Brady or in the playoffs in bad weather, Manning finds a way to give his team a chance to win. That's all you can ask from your quarterback. Knowing that, what do the numbers say about Belichick's decision?
Belichick's sound strategy
As we know, the advantage of going first now is that a touchdown wins the game. But since most kickoffs result in touchbacks, the average starting field position to begin overtime is just the 21.1-yard line. Driving 80 yards for a touchdown is not easy. The league average is around 16 percent. Since 2007, the Patriots have scored a touchdown on 25.5 percent of their drives from the 20-yard line.
In Indianapolis, Manning scored a touchdown on roughly 21 percent of his drives from the 20. In Denver, it's near 30 percent, but Sunday night was not reflective of his usual performance, as the Broncos were without Julius Thomas and the other receivers had some drops and failed to create separation or any yards after the catch. Making Manning go into the wind without fear he would drive for a touchdown was bold, but a very defensible decision.
In 34 modified overtime games, only six teams (17.6 percent) have taken the opening drive for a game-winning touchdown. Just five teams kicked a field goal, including the Packers on Sunday. Green Bay kicked on fourth-and-goal from the Minnesota 2 and ended up tying instead of getting the win.
That's the problem with receiving the ball first. While those teams are 18-14-2 (.559), coaches are largely confined to three-down football. If a team gets the ball back while down by three points, it has four downs to use and no concern for time on the clock. That's a very unusual NFL situation, but not an unfavorable one.
The most common outcome in modified overtime is the kickoff team getting the ball back and attempting a game-winning field goal on overtime's second drive. Thirteen teams (38.2 percent) have attempted the kick, and 10 were successful. The average starting field position for the kicking team is the 32.2-yard line, so it gets a shorter field to drive, only needing a field goal.
Every situation has context that needs to be factored in, but if a coach trusts his defense, then why not kick off, get a quick stop and potentially allow the offense to only have to go about 50 yards for a game-winning field goal? In a game like Baltimore-Chicago (Week 11), when the field was a mess, this would have been the optimal strategy for John Harbaugh, but he elected to receive the ball. Baltimore, confined to conservative, three-down football, punted from midfield and the Bears drove for the game-winning field goal.
A muffed punt set up the ending to Sunday's Broncos-Patriots game, but Belichick's decision was sound and we should start to see more coaches follow suit. While Belichick said he did it solely because of the wind advantage, we may have seen a different strategy had Manning showed more effectiveness on the night. But in the end it worked out, and Belichick should be given credit for understanding the situation and making a bold move.