Chicago's Cutler exit strategies
— -- The Chicago Bears ' move to bench quarterback Jay Cutler sure looks like a prelude to releasing or trading the NFL's 2014 leader in turnovers. It would be an amazing, perhaps even unprecedented move one year after the Bears signed Cutler to a seven-year contract averaging $18.1 million per season. The Cutler deal would go down with Washington's ill-fated contract with Albert Haynesworth as one of the worst in league history, although Haynesworth made it to a second season, at least.
The Cutler contract carries $15.5 million in fully guaranteed salary for 2015. As I wrote Tuesday, that commitment means the Bears are pretty much stuck with Cutler next season unless they're willing to eat that $15.5 million, or unless they can find a trading partner. Benching is not the same as releasing or trading, but it's the strongest indication yet that Cutler could be finished in Chicago after six seasons and a 52.2 total QBR score that ranks 17th out of 29 qualifying players over the past six years. The team has a 44-37 record (plus 1-1 in postseason) with Cutler starting.
The Bears' moving on from Cutler seems unlikely on the surface because of the cost involved -- as I wrote Tuesday -- but if the team decides that's what it has to do, what options are at Chicago's disposal?
Over the past couple of days, three front-office executives from other teams shared their thoughts on potential exit strategies for the Bears, should the team decide to go that route. Two of them suggested the same trade partner -- one that would add another high-profile name to the already long list of coaches who have bet on Cutler. The third executive explained why a trade could be tricky. Another thought benching Cutler could diminish his value, but the move also could shield the team from considerable liability if Cutler is indeed finished with the Bears.
There is much to consider as Cutler heads into Week 16 as the backup to Jimmy Clausen just 350 days after the Bears marked his new contract by saying they were " very excited to have Jay for the long term."
Execs think Titans are a logical trade partner
Any team needing a quarterback is a potential suitor, but two executives said they thought Tennessee would be the most logical landing spot for Cutler if he is released or traded.
The thinking is that the Titans will move on from Jake Locker after this season, and they haven't seen enough from Zach Mettenberger to bank on him as their starter. Cutler played college football in the state at Vanderbilt, which could make him more marketable in Tennessee -- a potential consideration for Titans president and CEO Tommy Smith, who has already pledged to spend aggressively in an effort to upgrade the team's roster. The Titans are 2-12 and in the running for a high draft choice, but one of the executives did not see an ideal quarterback fit for coach Ken Whisenhunt early in the draft.
"The kid from Oregon [ Marcus Mariota] could be seen as more of a run-around quarterback, and that isn't the type of guy Whisenhunt has traditionally wanted," one of the executives said, before adding that Florida State QB Jameis Winston's off-field concerns could scare the team away from drafting him. "They could add Cutler and justify it as buying time to develop Mettenberger. That would not be a hard sell."
Trading for Cutler would require taking on his guaranteed salary, a strong deterrent. One executive said he could see the Titans giving up a late-round pick for Cutler and trading down from the top of the draft to add picks for restocking the roster. But it is not known whether Tennessee would have interest.
Teams cannot make trades until the first day of the 2015 league year, which is scheduled to begin March 10. According to information on file with the NFL Players Association, Cutler's contract calls for $10 million in 2016 salary to become fully guaranteed if he remains on the roster for the third day of the 2015 league year. That means the Bears would have to consummate a trade between March 10 and March 11 to avoid becoming liable for another $10 million in guarantees (on top of the $15.5 million that is already fully guaranteed). Two days seems like not much time to get a deal done, but teams planning moves this significant would put out feelers ahead of time and have something in place with time to spare. They would not wait until the first day of the league year.
The team acquiring Cutler would also acquire his contract, which could mean committing to that $10 million for 2016, barring a quick renegotiation.
Offset language a consideration
There is no way to tell whether Cutler would play along with a trade well enough for the acquiring team to go through with it. One executive noted that Cutler's contract contains offset language. That means if the Bears released Cutler and the quarterback signed with another team in 2015, Chicago would be liable for the $15.5 million guaranteed minus whatever he earned from his new team in the first season. The Bears would not receive the associated salary-cap relief until a year later.
Cutler could try to force his release, and then sign a bargain contract that compels the Bears to account for a higher percentage of that $15.5 million guarantee. That could spawn a fight over the offset language in the contract, which a person with access to the deal said refers to "any and all compensation received, earned or that reasonably could have been earned" -- seemingly leaving room for interpretation if Cutler spitefully signed a minimum-salary deal with a new team. How much he accepts and how much he could reasonably earn might not be the same.
Benching Cutler could protect Bears
Benching Cutler for the remainder of the season could be seen as a hedge against liabilities that would come into play if Cutler suffered a serious injury. His $16 million base salary for 2016 was guaranteed for injury at signing, which means the Bears would have to pay that money to him if he suffered a catastrophic injury, but not if they released him. Cutler, who took seven sacks against the Saints, is much less likely to suffer an injury if he's standing on the sideline.
There is precedent for teams protecting players to shield themselves from financial risk. Back in 2006, the Titans prevented Steve McNair from working out at the team's facilities because team owner Bud Adams feared the team might have to honor his disputed contract if McNair were injured.
A possible solution in Chicago
Will the Bears retain coach Marc Trestman and/or general manager Phil Emery? If not, would the new leadership want to work with Cutler after the quarterback committed 24 turnovers in 14 starts this season (by comparison, NFC North rival Aaron Rodgers has 24 turnovers in his last 39 starts). There's also the question of whether Cutler could function again in Chicago after being benched.
"Some guys respond great to that," one of the executives said, "but all the reasons that Cutler is in this situation are why he probably will not take it well."
One executive wondered whether hiring Mike Shanahan as coach might make sense for the Bears if they wanted to keep Cutler. Shanahan was the Denver Broncos' coach when the team used a 2006 first-round pick for Cutler. Cutler ranked third behind Peyton Manning and Matt Ryan in total QBR over the final eight games of the 2008 season, but the Broncos went only 4-4 over that span with a defense that ranked ahead of only the winless Detroit Lions in expected points added ( EPA explained here). Shanahan was fired after that 2008 team missed the playoffs. His successor, Josh McDaniels, traded Cutler to the Bears before the next season.
Notes
• Harbaugh and Michigan: San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh should have no trouble landing his next job in the NFL or elsewhere if the 49ers do fire him, as anticipated. It cannot hurt his bargaining power if other potential suitors think he is at least "considering" what was reported to be a six-year, $49 million offer from his alma mater, the University of Michigan. I tend to think Harbaugh's hunger for a Super Bowl title is strong enough to keep him in the NFL for now, and that the Michigan job will be there for him at some point in the future.
• Wilson's agent: News that Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson wants his baseball agent, Mark Rodgers, to negotiate his second contract came as no surprise. Rodgers has handled Wilson's endorsement portfolio and has been a fixture around the team during Wilson's time in the NFL. Veteran NFL agent James "Bus" Cook negotiated Wilson's rookie deal. NFL teams know what to expect when negotiating with Cook; he has a long track record in the NFL. While Seattle's leadership is familiar with Rodgers, the team has not negotiated contracts with him. There is no reason to expect a difficult negotiation, but also no negotiating history to draw upon.
• Benched QB watch: Cutler becomes the 10th preseason projected starting quarterback to lose his job for performance-related reasons. He was 17th in our " QB Tiers" survey from the offseason, placing him in the third of five tiers (no QBs finished in the fifth tier).
None of the 15 quarterbacks in the top two tiers has lost his job; all of them except for Colin Kaepernick rank among the top 18 qualifying quarterbacks in total QBR this season. The 10 players rated highest in the survey all rank among the top 11 in QBR.
Cutler and Robert Griffin III are the only third-tier QBs to get benched.
Seven of the eight fourth-tier QBs were benched before or during the season. That list includes Matt Schaub, Chad Henne, EJ Manuel, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker and Geno Smith. The eighth fourth-tier quarterback, Matt Cassel, was lost to a season-ending injury early in the season.