How Clemson can exploit Alabama's weaknesses (which do exist)
— -- Last year, Alabama entered the College Football Playoff against an Ohio State team that the football world thought had little chance of going toe-to-toe against an SEC power team.
That contest ended in an upset loss that the Crimson Tide have used as inspiration to fuel this season's title campaign.
The motivation to prevent a repeat of last year is a big part of why Alabama is considered a prohibitive favorite over Clemson in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T. There is a feeling that this team simply won't let this sort of upset happen again.
The irony is, much as Ohio State turned out to be a surprisingly unfavorable matchup for the Crimson Tide last season, Clemson's strengths and Alabama's weaknesses make the Tigers exactly the type of team the Crimson Tide would not want to face right now.
(Note: Unless otherwise specified, the metrics referenced below are from games against Power 5 opponents and the rankings indicate placement among the 65 Power 5 teams or qualifying players from those teams.)
Clemson can disrupt Alabama's rushing attack
There aren't many teams capable of disrupting the Crimson Tide's powerhouse ground game led by Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry.
The track record of Clemson's rush defense this season indicates the Tigers are one of those teams capable of doing just that. Clemson ranks first nationally in rushes that gained zero or negative yards. Over one-third of the rush attempts made against the Tigers (36.7 percent) result in no gain or a loss. This performance doesn't wane against stronger teams -- Clemson had a 36.4 percent or higher total in this category in three games against top-25 opponents (Notre Dame, Florida State and Oklahoma).
The Tigers can slow the Crimson Tide's dink-and-dunk passing game
Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has a reputation for operating a system dependent on short passes, and that has certainly been the case this season.
Alabama quarterback Jake Coker has the highest percentage of passes that travel zero or fewer yards downfield. He's the only quarterback to exceed 40 percent (43.3 percent) and is more than 5 percentage points higher than the second-place passer in this category (Florida State's Everett Golson, 38.2 percent).
Coker also ranks last in percentage of passes that travel five or fewer yards downfield (42.6 percent). He placed tied for 56th out of 60 qualifying passers in aerials traveling 10 or more yards (27.9 percent), 58th in throws of 15 or more yards (16.8 percent) and tied for 55th in attempts of 20 or more yards (9.1 percent).
It might seem that this heavy emphasis on dink-and-dunk passes would lead to a high production level on these throws, yet Coker's numbers don't bear it out. He ranks 35th in yards per attempt (YPA) on throws traveling five or fewer yards downfield (4.9). His numbers on aerials that went at or behind the line of scrimmage aren't much better, as his 4.8 YPA ranks 26th.
Clemson has been solid against these types of passes this season, as its 4.7 YPA on throws five or fewer yards downfield ranks tied for 28th, and its 3.8 YPA on aerials traveling at or behind the line of scrimmage ranks 22nd. Combine this with Coker's middling numbers on these throws and it means that Alabama's short-passing attack will be hard-pressed to be a game changer.
Alabama doesn't turn long drives into touchdowns
It would seem the Crimson Tide's offense is perfect for converting long, time-consuming drives into touchdowns, but the metrics say that is definitely not the case.
Alabama was one of 24 Power 5 teams to register at least 20 drives that had 10 or more plays this season. The Crimson Tide had the fewest touchdown drives among that group (four) and only four teams (California, Colorado, Iowa and Iowa State) had as many or fewer scoring drives than Alabama (13).
Clemson won't be any help in this department, as the Tigers' defense ranked third in drives of 10 or more plays allowed (eight) and tied for fifth in drives of 10 or more plays that resulted in a touchdown (two).
Vertical and stretch vertical coverage weaknesses
All of this suggests Alabama will have to get out of its high percentage offensive mindset and try to go toe-to-toe with Clemson via big plays.
That would put the Crimson Tide's offense at a significant disadvantage, but it would also place Alabama's defense into a bad situation when it comes to covering vertical and stretch vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards and 20 or more yards downfield, respectively).
Alabama's defense was subpar on vertical passes this year, ranking 27th in vertical YPA (9.6) and 51st in vertical yards per completion (26.0).
The Crimson Tide's defense was even worse on stretch vertical throws, as they ranked 63rd in stretch vertical YPA (15.9), 53rd in stretch vertical yards per completion (37.9) and tied for 43rd in stretch vertical touchdown passes (six).
Making matters even worse for Alabama is the fact Deshaun Watson is an upper-tier downfield passer. He ranked 11th in vertical YPA (12.5) and 16th in stretch vertical YPA (14.8), but his best ability was turning those throws into touchdowns. Watson ranked second in both vertical (17) and stretch vertical touchdown passes (13).
Bottom line
The last thing Alabama needs to do in this game is turn it into a contest to see which team can get more big plays, and yet that is exactly where it looks as if this contest is likely to head. That makes this a potential nightmare matchup for the Crimson Tide that could lead to a repeat of last year's heartbreak against Ohio State.