Risk and reward in drafting Mariota

— -- Marcus Mariota will have his pro day on Thursday in Eugene, Oregon, and there will be a great deal of interest from both NFL teams and fans on how he performs. He is a difficult prospect to evaluate because he possesses many of the traits you see in a prototypical NFL quarterback prospect (namely his mental makeup, size, arm strength, pocket agility and durability) along with some rare abilities for the position (namely his straight-line speed and ability to throw on the run). But he also has some significant improving to do in the area that matters most for quarterbacks translating to the NFL level: the ability to consistently make throws from the pocket with great anticipatory accuracy.

He checks every box in terms of his character and intangibles, and the team that ends up drafting him might do so while banking on his high football intelligence and ability to improve at winning from the pocket as he transitions from Oregon's uptempo spread attack to a more NFL-style offense.

I've had him going No. 6 to the New York Jets in my two most recent mock drafts, and while I currently view Florida State QB Jameis Winston as a superior prospect based on his game tape, it's too early to rule out Mariota being the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' choice with the No. 1 overall pick on April 30. At a minimum, it's fair to say at this point that Mariota is a potential top-five pick in the 2015 draft.

Ahead of his pro day on March 12, I decided to break out the scouting report I wrote on him (which you can find in its entirety in our Draft Tracker) and go section by section on how he grades out in the traits I evaluate for every QB prospect. I've also included a conclusion section at the end.

Note: Each category is graded on a 1-5 scale, with 1 being exceptional, 2 above average, 3 average, 4 below average and 5 marginal.

Mental makeup: 2

"Highly competitive and even-keeled player who rarely seems rattled on tape. Benefits from spread, uptempo attack that simplifies reads and creates bigger throwing windows. However, has been a very sound decision-maker throughout career (105-to-14 TD-to-INT ratio).

"Very decisive. Shows much faster eyes scanning the field than he did early in career and frequently shows ability to get to third and fourth options. Also has really cut down on forcing throws into coverage. Takes few unnecessary risks.

"Tough to evaluate how much 'field general' he has in him because of no-huddle tempo-based attack. Not a fiery leader on the sideline in times of crisis, but always keeps his cool, and teammates respond to his even-keeled nature. Physically and mentally tough. Shows ability to bounce back from adversity (see: fourth-quarter comeback vs. Oregon State in 2013 after two bad early INTs, and second-half performance in semifinal vs. FSU after early-game struggles)."

Accuracy: 3

"Has shown major improvement from 2012 but still has room to grow in this area. Excellent accuracy when target is facing him and/or stationary. Shows ability to change up ball speeds and throws a very catchable ball. Most consistently accurate throws from inside pocket are on skinny posts/seam routes. Also has shown improved trajectory and touch on deep ball, particularly on rail shots. Has a unique ability to deliver accurate throws on the run and from an unbalanced platform.

"But at this point, he lacks ideal experience and has struggled with his efficiency on throws that require anticipation (throwing to a spot before receiver comes out of his break, throwing receiver to a soft spot in zone coverage, etc.). He appears capable of improving in this area, but improvement will be critical to his long-term NFL success.

"In addition, he misses on too many throws that require him to quickly reset his feet -- usually after sliding within the pocket (especially to his left) and after a receiver quickly flashes open during progression reads. And when his feet aren't properly set prior to him releasing a pass, it leads to him throwing off balance and/or failing to transfer his weight from back to front during his follow-through."

Release/arm strength: 2

"Quick trigger. Compact over-the-shoulder release. Smooth stroke. Height and high release point ease concerns about tipped balls at the line of scrimmage. Arm strength is well above-average and can make all the NFL throws."

Pocket mobility: 2

"Excellent foot quickness. Capable of getting to top of drop quickly, but obviously needs game experience from under center. Pocket presence improved throughout career. In 2014, showed ability to slide and climb to avoid rushers while keeping eyes downfield with much more consistency. Bad habits creep in occasionally. Still drops eyes from time to time. Also will occasionally vacate a clean pocket, but appears more comfortable and patient working inside the pocket.

"Dynamic athlete who has the ability to stress a defense with his mobility. Very good body control and balance when evading pressure, and has excellent escape-ability. Natural improvisational instincts when working off schedule. Has above-average elusiveness and rare straight-line play speed for the position. Has a very similar running style to Colin Kaepernick in terms of stride length and deceptive straight-line speed that ruins pursuit angles.

"Needs to show better overall ball security and utilize off-hand better both in the pocket and as a runner. Often doesn't secure the ball and lets it dangle away from his frame."

Bottom line

I think Mariota has the chance to develop into a very good NFL quarterback, but he'll likely have to land with the right situation in order to be successful. The team that drafts him needs to have a plan, and by that I mean they'll need to find ways to incorporate some tempo, spread and zone-read elements into their offense in order to play to his strengths, while at the same time developing his ability to consistently make accurate, anticipatory throws from the pocket. I've seen enough flashes to feel confident that he's capable of improving -- and a big part of his development will be increased attention to detail with his footwork. As mentioned above, when things go haywire as a pocket passer it almost always leads back to his footwork being out of whack (and the good news is that's a correctable flaw).

What NFL teams want to see at this pro day -- and more importantly during non-scripted individual sessions between now and the draft -- is Mariota's improved consistency with his footwork as a pocket passer. At those individual workouts, teams will work hard to take him out of his comfort zone by making him quickly reset his feet before making anticipation throws down the field. A team considering using a top-10 pick on Mariota wants to see that he's capable of quickly breaking bad habits. They want to see that he's coachable. If there's a minor tweak from one throw to the next, is he capable of making the adjustment?

I'm not saying that an individual passing session in April -- with no pads and no defense -- should trump the 41 game tapes we have to study. Not at all. But there may be a team or two at which the general manager and/or scouting department believes in Mariota, but the head coach and/or offensive coordinator is on the fence. These one-on-one sessions can help ease concerns, or they can go the other way. I've heard several stories over the years about the individual time spent with prospects serving as the ultimate "tiebreaker."

So for Mariota, just like hundreds of other lower-profile prospects in the 2015 NFL draft class, there's still ground to be made or lost based on how he performs during the next five weeks.