Transcript for What's the chance Trump loses the popular vote but wins the election again?
According to the 530 it forecast as of Tuesday September 15. Joseph Biden has us 75 in 100 chance of winning the presidential election. That's a bit higher than a chance meeting Biden when we launched our forecast in August but overall the race has been pretty darn sandy. There hasn't been a lot of movement in the state and national polls which is good for Biden as he has a pretty healthy lead. In fact it might be more interesting to look at some of the weird and not so weird possibilities for this year's election according to our model. For example there's a chance that Biden wins the popular. And loses the Electoral College which is exactly what happened to Democrats and 26 team. According Tora model there's an eleven and 100 chance of that happening so probably not but there still a chance. Or we could get every piece of what happened to 2000. When the election was decided by a recount. Our model gives a five and 100 chance of this happening again. In other words there's a five and 100 chance that the candidates will be separated by less than half a percentage point in one or more decisive states. One thing that will almost certainly happen is that the map will look different from when it did in 2016. Our model currently says there's a less than one and 100 chance that we'll get exactly the same map and sixteen for instance there's a ninety and 100 chance that by in the win at least one state trump Terry and 2016. According to our model the most likely state reflect his Michigan which Biden has an 100 chance of order. On the other hand there's also 39 and 100 chance at trump will carry at least one state to Clinton won twice sixteen. The most likely Clinton's state for trump to flatten his New Hampshire where he has a 28 in 100 chance of prevailing. Although the presidential race has been pretty steady up to this point they're still seven weeks left in the campaign which means there's plenty of time for things to change. If you liked this video remember to subscribe to factory on you to.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.