Transcript for Democrats' COVID relief bill is popular, but GOP may not vote for it
Hello and welcome to defy party politics podcast I'm dealing group. Congress is back in search and speaker Pelosi said she expects to pass. House version of the one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. We're gonna talk or any hurdles to the bill's passage how Americans viewing and whether this is the kind of thing. That could shape public opinion of I didn't and it. Also gonna again check in on Georgia. Were Republican lawmakers have proposed additional voting restrictions to the ones that we discussed two weeks ago. The lead this proposal includes eliminating early voting on Sundays which is one black churches mobilized voters through the soles to the polls program. And later in the show house Arctic questions which of course is good use of polling we're back use of polling. In today's example pollsters asked Americans out there support for succession. Each region of the country so Hewitt meet to discuss it all is editor in chief gates over any. Hey everyone. All of us is senior politics editors are process and hello Sarah. Palin. And of course the last time listeners heard from you you were just recovering from the crisis in Texas is everything our parent Harry Derek. Yes everything we're we're lucky here we've got power we've got water and it seems that the states spends. A look at here. Arctic air old secret us is Atlanta journal constitution. Washington correspondent Hugh Mitchell welcome back to. So let's begin wins the Democrats Colbern relief bill which is being called the American rescue. At this point some of the key provisions in the plan include. 14100 dollars stimulus checks funding for vaccine distribution as well as ESP and local governments schools and businesses. Increase in the child tax credit from 2000 dollars to 3000 dollars per child. Increasing unemployment benefits from 300 dollars a week to 400 dollars a week. An increasing the federal minimum wage from 725. To fifteen dollars an hour I twenty. So it appears that Democrats are on track to pass the American rescue plan without much or any Republican support. So Tia are sticking points in congress right now amongst Democrats if so what are they and and wire sticking its. Think the biggest sticking point right now is that minimum wage increase so progressives. Want that middle racing weight increase. They say it's you know about creating. Working income for people a livable income. But you know PC BO that its report that show that even though a bit of weight increase would lift people out of poverty. It will it cost jobs that million jobs in total and so that kind of backs VE. On concern from business groups that a minimum wage increase is not something that maybe businesses would be able to sustain. And remain viable and so in the centered in Hassell moderates who. Are not as in favor oh. Increasing the minimum weight at least not now. As part of the cold it relief bill I think that's also the concern is just like that minimum wage is a little bit outside a true Kobe relief. And therefore not something that Democrats should be lump hanging. And that's why have other concerns about it. Since team was getting at this is something that's really dividing the more aggressive members three happily Bernie Sanders saying look this is our time to push through than someone like senator mansion saying. I want people living working wage panic don't necessarily. The way to do it is with this federal mandated fifty dollars each right. Mansion of course England and more circuit members being those concerned Pittman Democratic Caucus. What's also interesting now is it looks like Democrats and passed this through the budget reconciliation process. And so that means that senate parliamentarian has to sent what can and can't be included and it's not really clear that something like a federally mandated minimum wage could be included in the reconciliation process. It's I think he's sorry to see. You know I didn't listen. Governors entered the weekend believed to talk about came might have room for this but now certain camper expectations of course you know someone like Sanders is gonna keep pushing hard for this cause it's quart is based. It's also something that I can with campaigned on 20/20. But it does seem as death. This isn't 2009 Democrats are not as divided as they were over HCA's this time you know not a health care wants an important. But now people are continuing to each day as part of an ongoing crisis last worth many years now. And the political states and in fighting around the court that didn't seem to use to prices stay in 2000. C yeah I mean what we've learned about the Democratic Party and maybe how much it's changed since 2009. In this process is that kind of the crisis that is keeping everyone together is the Democratic Party just Maurer. Kind of you and I did. Ordered general. We'll just take other proposals that are coming down the pike says it showed the true divides that exist. It's not so much that the Democratic Party spikes were divided it's just that the Democratic Party hasn't really been margin for error you know. Like there their beat the Democrats in the senate so just one I didn't. Democrat dissenting. Can kill a bill. It did in the house they have a little bit more the majority but it's slim murder now did it was. You know just a few weeks ago it so there's less room for air and house to you know it. You know progresses. Vote against bills all the time because they don't think pickle aren't that it if you head you know more moderate Democrat saying love the beer bill goes too far. Just painful. From either camp in it in maybe they don't have a majority vote in the house. Yet so really that's a really important point that it really cuts off. The option of saying well I kind of want to build a past I mean when he passes it right like now you kind of are. More constrained and sometimes constraints are helpful it's also worth keeping in mind that with their rise of partisanship since 2009. You don't have very many. Moderate Democrats having lower rate Joseph mansion is the exception there used to be. Seven or eight Sanders like him. So you know who'd so and we're not talking about any particular bills like. Are that radical anyway necessarily. Mean you know. A fifteen dollar minimum wage imagines that beehive West Virginia. It's not considered radical by the public at least in the polls pretty well so it's you know. It's a lot different than a national health care. System I think. Yeah that was its act as enemy it's just it unless there at that to. At that Democrats as a party really learn something from 2000. But there just. Aren't as many moderates amnesty is rate like the margin just isn't big enough for them actually disputes and get something author and you get the signaling that they nearly one carpet relief through which understandable. So should we X. Fact that the minimum wage passes in the house but that doesn't pass the senate and gets pushed to another today is that kind of default option right now or I guess mentions that he would support an eleven dollar minimum wage federally. Is that something that would end up in the senate bill late where our Democrats gonna land on this main sticking point. I could see it either. As Sarah noted he could be taken out of the bill because a parliamentarian has decided it just isn't. Qualifying for it eat budget reconciliation. Laurie being changed but I would be very surprised if there increased fifteen dollar minimum wage. Gates to the finish. So that's one of the key democratic sticking points. You know other questions I think have been sorted out before this point solemn you know. You know Democrats were wary of of reasoning that those unemployment benefits back up to 600 dollars a week where they were earlier. During the crisis. And so on. It seems like there's a lot of cohesion what do Republicans because we don't really expect them to vote for this bill what are criticisms. I mean I think the biggest Republican criticism is just that you know this is deficits ending this is going to increase our national debt now. Of course Democrats are gonna say that's not something Republicans have complained about much for the past four ears. You know that is something I mean it is a real concern because. Is increasing our national debt all this stimulus so I think that something that you're hearing from Republicans more and now. Now that you would add. Wing Donald Trump was still press. Yeah and you hear that like a lot of the Covert spending isn't really about Covert percent a rate. Which you know I know men are Democrats saying that if they're caught in the coming relief package and that kind of is clever framing right. But also Democrats won control of congress it's credited to Wear with all the party that would control congress and the presidency to do. A bunch of stuff has the votes for it so it's like the GOP is necessarily like. Making incredibly coherent points and other some concern about like we'd like he was saying you know this is a lot of money to spend. Could you have inflation there in some a few centrist economists who have been worried about that and more are not probably. But sickening you shall hodgepodge of stuff. What it is back I did you look at this bill and you know. Child tax creditor it family leave the minimum wage is a great example. BB even some of the funding for state and local government think this is a progressive. Economic. Policy might set of bills the Democrats have been talking about since long before the pandemic hit. So I mean. To be said about the Republican criticism is correct right it's it's kind of like using the cold but it crisis asked a backdrop for promoting. Economic priorities for progressives have existed for a more. Sense Reagan and efforts aren't. It's fair but it's also liked. But it's also what economists in. People who study this kind acting say what you should be doing. During our opinion gave me you know being so it's not. As transparently political acting is Republicans try to make it you know act in the day there are people. Who have lost their jobs or can't work. Or their businesses have closed because of their endemic in kids are hold me. In in schools had clothes you know there are so maybe beings. You know debts. Have people rely on the safety nets that Democrats. Have always wanted to increase funding or but now it's like the reality why those statements. You know sit at more funding you know if you agreed that. That's something government should be doing. Yeah that and he definitely increasing the deficit seems to the end of in a way that it was not in 2108. Lessons but economists from you know. Both more liberal and a little more arson acts senator writes. Learn from 2009 as we didn't put enough money back into the economy and want to wait at this. That's set and means the moderate plan that like someone might Collins are all cast each try to percent right and was it 618. Billion which is not even close to the one point nine trillion democrats' line. So asked Republicans and the port and SI thinking island what you're getting at is used to. Options for them right there either gonna say this is way too much money and party put in a lot of money. But is TH at had in the last four years under truck they increase the episode so it does feel kinda light. Well now lives at an issue right. Or Erica they kind of latch onto some of them are cultural issues in the bill like minimum wage and saint hate this is an outcome that relief. It's not Democrats pushing progressive. Policy which does we talked about earlier and I insure the minimum wage passed through. And it's neat said is popular with Americans but maybe that's kind of a valuable way for Republicans to push back on us. So a new poll from the New York Times and survey monkeys shows that 72% of Americans approve of this one point nine trillion dollars stimulus package. Nearly all Democrats is 97%. 76% of independents and even 43%. Of Republicans approved the proposal. A quinnipiac poll showed slightly smaller but similar numbers in early February. So and he should wheat eat these polls at face value when 72% of Americans say they approve of this two trillion dollars stimulus package does that mean. It's that simple a they're group. Sure yet. I mean that that the people like getting checks they general like. Spending when if there was a need for it and given the pandemic and the damage the economy people feel there's a need for I think it's like man I actually like. That complicated. Yet do it. We have laws like this are there any risks that they become less popular after they pass. Column polar like politicized in a way that they might not be early on in the process. Mean there there's the respect like the economy. Struggles and if you do you have you know whatever inflation or whatnot and Democrats get blamed for it. The tightening economy to negate any way to get reelected and profitable but it could meeker between 22 and so. Obviously look let's say we do raise minimum wage and there is. At some point a spike in unemployment right. Like Democrats get blamed for that probably Padilla going for it anyway it's kind of like if it. You tell if it's popular and it's probably good for the economy and I think it's kind of like. One of the easier and more straightforward. Decisions politically. Which is why Democrats are probably gonna get a lot maybe not everything done. With these very narrow majorities. Yeah I mean I think needs right uses one pretty straightforward. And issues relate. Public opinion poll Democrats independents Republicans. Over walking only one stimulus check. And he needed done some analysis and lead it to the election that if trump had me eat on a second round of stimulus checks. Withheld ten tour only win so. This does seem like a new greener fortune aspects at that point you are raising. You know if this is complex could achieve public opinion. Yes absolutely one of the reasons by the EC eight took salon become popular was because it was this huge patchwork of regulations a lot of Americans didn't understand. Wasn't clear cut how to do it marketplaces where mass in an individual mandate was pop. Now you know we don't see any of that with the current stimulus package that keeping it in its implementation. You know others. Parts that are rolled out perfectly. And I also think Democrats have work to address probably. The biggest vulnerability which was who gets the stimulus checks and those income limits. And you know it's in a little unpopular among the most progressive. Parts of Democratic Party but in general the income limits are pretty. You know modest. I think it's what set me back thousand this is winner starts to taper off or whatever so. Com. I think that'll tell because you lose debt. You know that light from Republicans that you had people who don't need money just using their checks for frivolous things you know when you point to. Send it back thousand in lower. Its heart it's that make that argument especially in. You know in most places in America where that's clearly a middle that's it that's middle income. Dia. Republicans taking any political risks by not supporting this and I guess. Tia if you've been tracking the whip count are there any Republicans who are actually support. You know I think that that's. With a lot of things that's more likely in this and it's ticket a few Republicans to vote with Democrats. I'm not saying it is it will happen. But I'm saying it's more likely to happen in the city it in in the house. That being said I think republic chains. You know. There are expecting. Normal. Mid term. Elections to like swing in their favor in a major way which is tradition in America but I wonder if you know things liked the stimulus. If it. If the polling shows that it remains popular even act implementation. Battle that they'll just continue to. Negatively at that perception of the Republican Party and what Republicans in Washington. Will do it could use in their Ford negatively at that what happens in the mid terms. One listen and learn from 2009 is that if you deny the appeal the auspices of being. Bipartisan. Than. Then it will become less popular right. So yes its strategy but again I'm being here and appeared and sort of like it doesn't like the effects of the economy whether it does result in more. Inflation or bit more jobs are more money people's pockets for it seems like that's. That's a more important. Things right I mean and I mean are you can assume that let's say the economy. Is good. Are you gonna say well you know Susan Collins oppose. Aid to state and local governments of the LeBlanc she's terrible mean. I guess so I don't know I mean it just seems like. The suit like one or more kind of thus the puts on the point that he had me earlier right which is that like. If he needed GOP votes for passage. Then the calculation there comes a lot word. Complicated potentially. Right. Welcome city after weighing. In Africa name wonder if we're like kind of sabotaging the economy he but it would be good for us to that we would get blamed potentially right but the target. It's her to complain that much for and that pass is anyway I guess what I'm sent. So you mean if Republicans. Withheld. Votes and therefore the bill didn't pass then. Democrats could launch campaign saying hey like the economy is struggling and it's all because the Republicans when. Yet but the fact that you don't mean GOP bell expects that like you lower stakes decision in May be Republicans can say you know it's also case were like. If it's a lower six decision that may be your rich. Donor base right you keep them happy to people who are concerned about inflation. So you're at the same Republicans might not bowl or being read the it's in its popular. Book. You'd need to vote for. I mean if it's popular they re in a fits but it's it turns out to be a disaster they can say hey I didn't vote for. Yeah I think that's part of it and I think the other consumers if it is that if he comes to really well it could be service to them back in its despite. Its not like. That consequential decision. Either way compared to like. If he had 49 democratic senators need one Republican to vote and it's like that's. Just more or high leverage decision to keep in mind too that. So those people are ideologically. Opposed to government spending right. And so it's not a serial elected me that's kind of careful detail. Calculus about the political implications either. Yacht what are the questions I asked. On inauguration day pick itself was you know Biden had this. Basically agenda that he laid out. The beginning of which at least seemed pretty broadly popular here we are and how this rescue plan that has 72% American support or thereabouts. Have a question at the time was like does passing popular policy actually. You know hope you're electoral outcomes as in the US the president more popular for party. Like is there are one to one like you do things that Americans like they were direct polls or has that broken down to a place where cultural debates and identity. And just kind of tribalism and partisanship. And eliminates some of some act and of course a lot can happen between now in the next elections and some meat you'll never narrow. But I know that we article is for Democrats are active start passing seemingly popular legislation what do we think it does this actually make a difference in terms of how Americans view Biden and parties. I mean I think there's a risk of like. The media. Under rating how much bread better economic issues matter as opposed to. Culture worse stuff isn't legal action wars. Well Bellamy like if you look at like so that prestook like why didn't. Trip do better among dying in particular. Hispanic voters in two lesser extent other voters of color relative to 2000. And sixteen right when he answers that actually if you look at. Wage growth or job growth that you did see some growth among nonwhite groups. And that's more important in the culture worked stuff necessarily. You know likewise you know why did trump. Kinda come sort of closed when the election the people approved a visit from an economy. Or at least you know you tolerable numbers on that and so yeah I think like. Again. It's economic it's just like back it's like the opposite of like. Symbolic. Legislation right so have a very tangible effect on like literally people putting money in people's pockets any tangible effect on. State and local economies have potential effect on. You know minimum wage is if that part passes on cove in relief. So it's kind of like the polar opposite of like bill where the symbolism matters rates really going to be special human like we're almost two years to the mid term. It's does this actually work. That I think is important and will affect the kind of bottom line a little bit. I want this bad since the little bit on that these kinds attitude being. The culture Warner Claes in part because it's still about the framing. Seoul. You know be Affordable Care Act did a lot of good for poor people of all colors but it was framed in a way that made it unpopular. In rule white bear. And so. The same thing chumps economy. Was there. An economy that was building. What he had hair it. But it was framed in a way that spoke to particularly. Middle color. And in you know in theory coded ways that helps increase his popularity. In the twenties when he sold was still part. The culture war it was based in policy. It's well to different groups in ways that fact that their perception that the policy if so I think that could impact this. You know in general call that statement that Indian at this. You know you see people trying to bring stimulus checks and you know just frivolous frivolously passing out money that people can gain trip off. In it that becomes a prop up prominent perception. That will speak to certain people in different why he's the pinning on your your identity. Didn't. Have you seen that messaging this time. I have. And seen it as old Berkeley yet but I do think it was touched upon when you start talking about income levels he talked about to coastal at least need more stimulus in the idiot yet. That's real and real policy debate in it can be frank in a way. I don't I haven't necessarily seen any income opener. Racial. Terms but I think it could con you know depending on. Which parts of the bill ultimately make it being and as we get closer to elections in any in my piece it. It the bill turns out over I'll be perceived as a good thing for the economy in its popular. Maybe it doesn't get framed it that way but if you know the consultants and pollsters see that they can pick off some voters are framing stimulus in certain ways for certain populations I think we're blunt has the. And then one just Adam act like one in political science has fat is bad if policy victories frank in such ways that this is you know period liberal free Democrats. Voters aren't in her report that the ballot box their you know it's going to lead to electoral losses the same is true for Republicans Marron office and something that they ask. Is perceived as very conservative that pendulum swinging ray and sent. Adding he has re absolutely that in some ways depending on how that's a spring which politicians. You know notoriously can't control. That definitely could lead to electoral repercussions here 20/20 two you. Are well some very interesting things to keep track mayor in terms how republic receives a politicians try to message around it. Com but I want to move on and talk about the newly proposed restrictions in Georgia. Georgia Republicans introduced a new package of voting block changes in the state Lee last week. Most notably the changes would end early voting on Sundays which appears to be the clearest measure. That would suppress black girls for decades black churches have used the souls of the polls program to boost voter turnout in conjunction with church attendance. There are other changes in the package as well which we can get into you. We discussed some of the proposed about it watch changes in a couple weeks ago and I'll say. To try to extract what is happening with voting laws on the state level as we go forward heroes park in particular the U torture. And something that you must keep in mind about Georgia is that light swing states in the midwest. Georgia has unified Republican control state government. Meaning that it's likely the most consequential speed to try to make major. Changes post when he. Now that's not to say that there are are not plenty of other states that are meetings voting changes happening in Blue States and red states. We're seeing initiatives and Arizona and Texas and associate states try to make it easier to vote for example. We're gonna take a look at all of it by you know we are going to us pay special attention to what's happening. In Georgia and TN of course. Being with the Atlanta journal constitution. Hopefully could help us out what that. What are some of the other voting block changes that have been proposed Ian this new package that just came out last week. So well yeah soul initially they are all these separate bills and bid last week it was like this one comprehensive. Packets that came out and it included as you'd mentioned. I'm rolling back in person early voting so in a lot that occurred on Sundays but would remain on Saturdays. It moved you know during that can't give me you've had people could drop up there. Absentee ballots in mailboxes that where available 24 hours. Well this split blue bells drop boxes inside early voting locations. So they would only be open as long as that early voting site was open not 24 hours. It would increase the I DE require permits to request an absentee ballot. Alone it would also little it's so meanie things it would it changed oversight of the state election board. And remove it from the secretary of State's off this. Kids. Trying to think blitz it there are a lot of things that in all built into this wine. Piece of legislation. Darren lockyer. I'm sure that there are different arguments for why a different aspects. These proposals exist. You know. Obviously. What we all latched onto in the national media because it seems the most direct it act black voters is eliminating Sunday vote. You know first brought upon asking what are Republicans saying is the reason that they want to do away with Sunday vote. Colleagues Patricia Murphy. Asked him what are you problems are trying to solve in general what all of this legislation. And also the Republicans she spoke to we're saying you know. That's a good question what problem are we trying to solve you'll duke hit the nail on the head but what they said was. We're trying to boosts confidence in our voting system. People are skeptical right now so we want to do whatever we can't sue. Soon to reduce that skepticism and of course split is going unsaid is. That Donald Trump and his supporters are consult the skepticism and create it whatever perceived problems there aren't that now Republicans are trying to soft. When it comes to lose Sunday voting you know they talk about the fact that you know. Early voting is something that. It's not that they can accomplish early voting goals without having seven day a week accidents than it. Can. Create some space in some time Ford's death and things like that I mean there's not. It's not the most cohesive answer but that's what you're what you'll hear is that you know. We don't meet Sunday voting in order to have. Robust in person early voting. Yes it's definitely seemed at this hour that the actions. And glad that mostly matches what you heard excess transgenic rate that what is the actual cancer Republicans have quietly putting on Sunday. Isn't something that they carried moving forward. And it you know it reminds me so much a play. DC boating very issues North Carolina ray. In the sense that court there found that specifically. Targeted black editors with a surgical like precision. It's hard for me to see how at the same argument particularly like eliminating early voting on Sunday it isn't true churches rain acne. We known not just in Georgia and states that offer early voting in person. It's African Americans predominantly use that more than white Americans more than Hispanic Americans. And violent name the Sunday aspect which is scandalous saying at the outset here whistles to the polls the dispute seems like such a targeted effort. Then again is sadly the keeps saying no because of doubts we happened 20/20 election. Which frankly there was no proof of fraud in short so what is it that kind dress. And I also think you know we talk in the past about how. You know democratic groups and voter rights groups we'll adjust to whatever becomes law Friday night. It's not. If there is no longer early voting on Sunday. In the churches will likely organize souls to the polls on Saturday. You know what I mean so in in Republicans know this they know it'll make it harder. They know it won't necessarily have a huge impact which to me shows that it's not. It's even more so about messaging it's. You know I don't want. You know try not to go too far but it's almost. The dog whistle in a way order you know away. I mean you're nose at particularly black democratic voters. Since the put on the record lie. That reaching too. I'll say we have liked to eat it here to back up wide Sarah sat in terms of voting patterns I don't read a passage from mother Jones article. By Ari Berman. It says quote the January 5 runoff for the first time that Democrats outnumber Republicans during in person early voting. And black voters constituted a third of early voters. In the November general election. Black voters used early voting on weekends. At a higher rate than whites in 43 a fifty of the State's largest counties black voters make up roughly 30% of Georgia's electorate comprised 36 point 7% of Sunday voters in 20/20. So you look at the data and you see that. This what I have an outsized impact on black voters you don't know the history it's also the polls and things like that the data reflects this as well. What other kinds of effects could BC from this and should we expect a backlash. Again I think number one acting. This is good further energized Georgia Democrats. And we're Tennessee that you know Stacey Abrams fair right. Acts in group is spending all week doing he's virtual hearings to. Create a tense scene and increase that urgency. Who oppose these bills in Georgia in so there's already met that increased energy around Democrats but I also think. You know there will be tangible changes that will we're quiet here. Pitt it's with you know democratic groups if they want to have the same level of success they hadn't once when he. But it'll all whole requirement is in general I. George. Elections. We're Bryant probably more smoothly in November in January. It they had in quite some time. So this is. Likely top also have the consequence. Of returning to some of the problems we saw. In the primaries. In twenty it's funny in Georgia where there were long lines in an alliance. And some of those suburban counties which are addicting from voting in which make boaters. Very upset. Yeah I mean there are multiple. Ways in which this is receipt of the GOP potentially right. One is that it's a little. Transparent right. I mean they can make their excuse about voter integrity but you know like Tia said. You don't have to be. That well versed in politics to understand that light. It was that Republicans are pushing this idea about election illegitimate. And so if you are kind of one of the news. Moderate swing voters the Atlanta suburbs maybe you feel like. OK I'm. Tightest yes right. To lose that. If Democrats are better organized in Georgia man. Whatever barriers you put up even if there rather explicitly targeted. You know toward black voters if they are more able and willing organized working around those barriers. There's a potential risk right and kind of park to be about it that. If the GOP is leaning more on. Lower propensity voters to some of the white people who are rural areas don't vote in every mid term right we unintentionally can create barriers to your own. Voters voting so there are there are risks here you know at the same time I guess I comes RAZR is like we have found in our research and Richard to spam like. When you make it heard about it tends to hurt Democrats maybe it's different now with a 20/20. One electorate and it was ten years ago but. You know. There it's not a mystery why they're doing. Yes. It's heartening to think given that action. Term care fight action and other groups that this doesn't somehow result in a lawsuit. If it is passed and challenged by Democrats in terms. I the GOP trying to implement this. Yacht so Powell likely is that at this point that this package of proposals will. Pass you know including. No more Sunday currently imports and voters. You know we have seen in past cases when states kind of do some pretty explicitly. Bigoted things. There's an outcry from the corporate world and politicians and sometimes it's unit states will take a step back and reverse course I mean. That seem like that's happening year. Does it seem like there is some doors and divisions within the Republican Party in Georgia over how to move forward did look like him. Party is split on which. Of these proposals are truly nexus a year. And so I do think there could be some changes some amid gains as this bill navigates. Nor. Normal legislative process so that. All of the provisions that are currently in the building at all he in the final version I do think something's Lopez you know we've talked before about how. I do think you know. Increasing be the level of identification. He'd it's a request an absentee ballot. Isn't likely surpass. The Sunday early voting. It's still. Blatant. Act could see that being one of the things to ago just because it's like you're picking your picking up I. In a state that has a large black population. When you don't need to. You know so the bill could change I think you're right that there will be lawsuits no matter what that's fair I'd action. Is probably more days' time you know challenging things in the courts and they aren't even. Or just as engaged on port town is as they got to bite the organizing. In. Public policy aspects so it's Colombian courts and that's also why what's happening at the federal level with the for the people acts. We'll have a big impact because that Democrats are able to pass legislation. Bed reinstates you know judicial oversight of elections law changes in states like George then that could also create another level of scrutiny. For what the legislature is trying to. And added we can also imagine that if that if such. A bill passed federally which there's a lot of questions about. The filibuster and whether it could make it three given the filibuster. Did we would expect a lot of legal challenges to with the outlawed as well that would end up at the Supreme Court and then we have to see. You know where this current makeup of the supreme court's stance on the issues. Rape. Any further reason piracy laws like the one in Georgia being discusses because the Supreme Court in 2013 decided that states like Georgia that had under its rights act had to go to federal approval in terms making parity rate. It get away with that they said the way in which those decisions were made for outdated. And find it's not in 1965 anymore but I think what's really telling from that is yet but Brennan's anarchist studies voting rights and at. Laws throughout the US has found that. 165. Bills and 33 states that would restrict voting on the table this year that's four times fold increase at this point last year. And it's just something that continually has come again sensed my thirteen and when the Supreme Court you know made it easier for it these states in other states across the country to pass more restrictive house. All right what I imagine we're gonna continue to track these proposals will see what makes it and what doesn't and we'll keep an and other states around the country before we wrapped so I want to get to one of our favorite questions here on this podcast which is good use of polling warm bad news poll. So bright line watch which is a group of academics that track the health of democracy in the United States released an extensive survey of the public and experts last week. Asked a lot of different questions at sometimes provocative questions. Light which form of government is best. Democracy expert rule military rule or strong man and so. This survey is that this organization. Conducts certainly trying to get are there underlying. About democracy here in the United States. One of the survey questions a cop the most attention was about secession. And there were two parts to this question but the first just simply asked whether respondents supported. Dividing up into more like minded regions in order to reduce conflict. 35% of Republicans at giants 21% of Democrats that yes and then 37%. Of independents said. So that's you know about a third of respondents saying that they are interested Ian. Dividing up the United States into more Arctic regions we got a lock silica pack here but don't ask. Date you know the standard question first knee is this a good use of polling or acts. Our. I think it's totally fine it's a purple used to ask about. Ideas that may not be talked about as much her nine and tired of the mainstream but they are totally out of the mainstream right I mean you hear talk about. The secession from a couple of groups one of which is kind of Republicans in the deep south. Like Texas or what nine and you hear sometimes about. California are at Pacific coast states. Thinking about becoming independent writer to when he up with British Columbia or something informing some. Specific. Northwest like work a republic or something like that right so I you know idea. I think it's tough people should be. Thinking about and if if I want to be honest you know if you think about like that it. Downside scenarios where. An election really is stolen. Then what's their response to that right. It wouldn't shock me if the responses some Blue States saying. We went out it if we take seriously all these kind of parts democracy. Then there are only. X number of lanes those also get resolved in they are all. So I understand that a couple people have meant a couple lawmakers have mentioned honesty. Level. And today there may be some. Jokes about it are I think. What parts to the west terrorist. But I haven't here court any serious consideration of actual action and on top of that this whole doesn't. Ask anything what's it say anything about the details light. With their violence how would the country break into different. Segments or like Abby asking people their support for a civil war but just by eight. Without asking any of the there's there's very quick secession has an idea OK a third of American support 35% of Republicans etc. But then what like what does that mean it's a very abstract like if you're gonna ask this question should there be more details and. I mutiny. All to plant and it's a good use however I had serious ecological cripples which I think you're hitting him and I probably in which they chose to word the question was disingenuous. Loosely. Secession as a solution. Not secession has the civil war is violence. End. Also you know like secession it's not legally possible rate at the Supreme Court passed you know after missile toward paying state. You know Tex it can't happen right Texas can't just break away. That doesn't mean that you know if we are in this 20/20 four doomsday scenario where kids significant percentage of the country's saying I don't accept the result but they could try to secede. So I think ultimately it is really important to understood demand. We're Americans are on this issue how record tear me like. The Incredibles. Examples neatly to adds evidence that this is becoming more mainstream the Mississippi lawmakers might. Tracked what he said with an eight day and said I'd use actually don't percent my constituents and myself and it was inappropriate. Texas has a long history of trying to break away like Kyle Biederman it's not the first it's not seriously traction. And Wyoming sent to was. So it is not Gillis I think they're issues with how they phrase it the need it sound as if it was this great solution vs could be. Stems in violence and and democracy in America as we know it. I think it is still with those Cappy ops. Put in place important to understand how we fringe or what we perceive as different and yet could take. In houses say like I agree with what you that's the opposite but I also think that its work. Talking about because it might not be like true secession. But I do think we need to be talking about how fragile our democracy is. And the reality of the last few months we experience. Shows us that it's not that abstract of a possibility that our democracy. Ultimately fatal in the united states of the mayor. It's not either not governed the same way lower its boundaries don't look the saying. In our lifetimes I'm not think that should happen saying I want that happen but that is a coup leader possibility. So I didn't think there should be lower. Science and social studies in political science and statistics or whatever you want to college about those possibilities what they look like how it could happen. What the ramifications would be because it's real and we you know I think we have mayor at watts you know we watched the pol. The USSR. It we watched it little. Those shifting higher that was the United Kingdom and maybe just like looking at it more as I watched the crown or whatever but I mean we look at these beings. And it's like it happened so that those countries. We think the United States of America is is unified body of fifty states and that's what it is but. It could happen here in especially you know that's that became really close in explaining he's excellent excellent warrant so who bills later. These. Elements of this cool toward my goal in the coming years or decades and I think we should be studying. Yeah I don't incorrectly if you look back at like you know back when I was a kid. Germany was two countries and how it's one in the USSR was. One country notes. And again thirteen or whatever it is repeat. You know. The UK he nearly had Scotland leaving Scotland may still leave for its nearly had Quebec leave from. Canada right. Those ability relatively peaceful transitions felt like it's not necessarily normal work record keeping at the same territorial integrity for. Centuries on hat. So just when it closed to probing questions about Scottish secession or independence as they call it even Rex the votes that they happen. In Spain war in two back etc. the trowel. How how does polling work in acts and aria. Do they talk about the details involved or what separation would look like you just simply ask. Are you in favor of this region breaking off and no longer being a part of the United Kingdom or Canada or west how'd you like what are good practices in terms of polling. Kind of quite dramatic political events that could have very severe. Consequences for. Democracy violence things like that they are you supposed to get into those details or do you just basket and an abstract way. I mean already baba Ahmed upholstered someone who looks at I mean. I think you don't want to ask. Like the people who envision that California would succeed do not involve. Does not involve violence right. It's a peaceful process for California for group where it somehow the congress would. Consent and action network exactly. And then while on a conference of state so no I think you can't like. Like in some ways I don't mind have a question was phrased because what it's talking like that. In result of leaving it ambiguous. How it would be achieved I guess right. They I don't think it necessarily. Presumes. Civil war I don't know I mean is it is it. That crazy to imagine. Vessels that went to secede and and there's it was like OK good by a thief and a no. So I guess maybe we can get a little more today that due to imagine that there were two parts the first part is when asked. Just a simple question you know would you be in favor says Sachin. Essentially breaking up into like minded groups of states in order to again as a emphasize Sarah. Reduce conflict. It was kind of framed as having something. So then they asked just. Well maybe a little more and neutrally but debt also. Got into greater specifics. About the hypothetical new nations that would be created so they asked respondents. In states in the north east if they would like to break away as a cookies region and then in the south. In the midwest in the mountain region and the west missed. And breaking up the union then Democrats writ large. 41% of Democrats on the West Coast in this scenario were interested in breaking away. Where is 50% of Republicans in the south what does that part of the polls are you about our country. And as the good news appalling. I was interesting section football because essentially what it did. Right it's kind of show that Islam major parties the one that's in control shears secede baby. Otherwise no thanks ray and it I was valuable and instructive because again any. Some of this I mean Islam didn't like. Hurt us tonight and it hues like you know. When the polls are finding that 80% of Republicans didn't believe in the election results. There was a lot of political science that's like well some of that's partisan cheerleading. Does. Mean as a sun January 6 clearly a section of the Republican Party did not believe the election results. But there is a danger. In reading too much into the hands and I kind of saw. The regional breakdown. As are we a to kind of make sense evidence of sure pilots part of the country my party in power. And likes of ash. It's easy to talk about it at that in the abstract in acting it's where while because it in we know there are elements. Houk they. Clues for it in ways that would be more successful now that we've seen you know what happened. In recent history in American history but I also you know the more we sit here and chat about it unlike what it what happens when you into. In the region that doesn't. Shape your pocket we've seen that in other countries where you have you know. Into bounds and ask it John that you have ethnic minorities who. I'm still obligated order until that it would be better it and immigrate to a new country and then that creates a different type of crisis. Still don't get me wrong I'm not saying it would be easy or feasible. It in as we talk. I don't live so what happens when all the black folks in that eats out. Just sat they would really have a better time that they were able to move to that new country up in the northeast. That seems to lineup but their politics better order has better opportunities because they feel like this new ultra conservative. Country doesn't speak to them and that that would create a whole another issue you know so. Act. You know it's week to try to talk about it in trying to figure it out in your brain but I still you know not things like. I think we should be talking about it because there are elements for their own you know politically there are elements who are pushing these types of things. And bolt on both kind of extremes the political spectrum and he should be talking about it. I mean we should be emphasized that like unlike adding a state of the union there is not a clear constitutional mechanism in place. For removing a state. So you'd have to if you were doing it peacefully after probably pass a constitutional amendment. To outline the terms for that and that's a high threshold obviously. Yeah I think it's important also says but terrorism which is like a lot of this is partisanship. And you know I would be curious didn't ask this poll question when trump was in office but if we would've seen different numbers for Republicans and we're right now. Writ large Republicans are more in favor of breaking up the country. But there's also a democratic administration running Washington if you know when trouble is an office which you have seen those numbers reversed for Democrats that a publication here is that. A lot of our political divide in America. Are more specific than region based there urban and rural and like. Eaton. That sense we're stuck with the top right to speak at unity yet you can't like break up regions and have won regions regions that's the city's. And one resentments of the rural areas. Answered this question. It's a weird one for of the political divide that we see in America. I just wanted to interject it's funny because in Georgia we are happy that debate there are. You know. You have these cities and others municipalities that hat. Created in Georgia in the past twenty years particularly particularly immediately in an area in there are racial factors are involved. But now you have butt head which is a neighborhood everybody knows Tony bucket. And they're talking about succeeding from the city of it into right now. And again it's ST lit. Politics but not so much politics because there are Democrats and bucket but they're wealthy Democrats and and it. In their wider than the rest of it planes in it it's not clear. How they can do it legally. It's been tried with other municipalities in failed. But there is an effort you can Google it Google but hits assessing and it's interesting so it is playing out on the local level. And it. I should saying before we wrap this up here and give this. Our official rating equities appointment argues appalling. Does. People who did conducted a survey of academics involved and great line watch. Deep this past their rationale for why they were during the appallingly sad quote. We asked respondents for the first time their views about a scenario in which the United States would break out into more than one country. Secession is a genuinely radical proposition. Until recently we would have regarded it as too marginal to include in serve but state legislators in Mississippi and taxes and state GO key leaders in Texas and Wyoming. Have openly advocated secession in recent months again sir this is where you referred to earlier it's like. It's not. Really. In such an artist maybe a more symbolic way of but they said. To continue propping up to design to a survey items to gauge perceptions of this data we caution that these survey items reflect initial reactions by respondents about an issue that they are very unlikely to have considered carefully. So. Understanding the copy out that they placed. In this or race seems like you guys think it is appalling but I'll just ask to wrap up the segment. I 38 official duties of quarterbacks calling. It sparked a good discussions podcasts. Could use it used but on how they asked the question around to I do think there some. Can quibble. Agree good use. We need to keep me to keep talking. Yeah and then there are a lot of other survey questions in this report that they release that are not as sensational as this that our interest and on and meet we can keep looking back for more examples to discussed in this podcast. Is it for today so cute he has there eight. Take young. Intel and. My name is do you enter Tony child is in the virtual control room cleared to Gerry Curtis is on audio editing. You get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com. And of course greeted us with any questions or comments. If your fan of the show beavis or reading or review in the apple podcasts or or tell someone about us thanks for listening and we will see. I.
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