Transcript for Fewer undecided voters is good news for Biden in the Midwest| FiveThirtyEight
And the. Hitters dealing. To put it bluntly Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. And upsets that. That's happened there in 2006 team. Have been a large part of the sudden attacks of our national politics sends back. Essentially Hillary Clinton seemed to be leading in those receipts if you I'll be watching. And then in the end Donald Trump won all three. Three states that had been voting for Democrats for decades. Now. As Biden is in the lead in the 20/20 election and we get down to the wire of course some voters are probably wondering bulk adjusting things just happen again could trump ultimately win Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. After I didn't meeting in those cities. For so long now of course if we're looking at this question from the sands of is there a chance that Tom could win those states of course. But when we look at the polling in those three states in 21 very important differences between what we seen and what we saw back. And a lot of it comes down to a number of undecided voters and whether or not Joseph Biden has majority support amongst the people in this. So in order to break this down and a little more to tell I'm gonna use our interactive. That we have. Right so as you may have heard in 2016. There was a relatively high number of undecided cars. And that's in large part because wolf Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton had pretty low favorability ratings. So there were many Americans who disapproved of both Clinton and acts crop and those people often times registered as undecideds in the polls. Until we look at the polling averages in Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania heading into the 2016 election. Hillary Clinton never actually reached. 50% of support or a bomb on average she was generally in the high forties. This time around Joseph Biden is actually reaching 50% support were slightly above it all three of those states. The reason that's important is because when you have a bunch of undecided voters. They are more Bible to switch back and forth between two candidates in the late stages of the race. But when voters have already made up their mind and one candidate already had 50% support the war. That order for the other can't. Edited to make a comeback they don't just happen win over undecided voters they also have to win over voters we've already sad that they're voting for their opponent. That's a halt work this time around for price spectrum so let's look at the states where Joseph Biden is polling at 50% more honesty. As I imagine he's doing that in Wisconsin. So let's get back to Biden used you me back in Pennsylvania. Let's get back to bite and he's doing that in Michigan. Now if Joseph Biden is able to hold those three states which is 50% support war bond in the polls. He's basically wrapped up the rates were and you'll see if you crunch the numbers that Joseph Biden is. 50% support war in states totaling 273. Electors the Electoral College. Why Joseph Biden's chances of winning are pretty good as he doesn't have to rely on convincing undecideds he can really just go with the voters that are party pocket. So in this scenario state trump wins Texas let's give Texas truck so you wins Ohio. Let's get back to time as well then he also wins Florida. Annie wins Arizona under that scenario Joseph Biden still has a very good chance of winning the election. You know if we also look at states like Colorado Joseph Biden is pulling it 50% or above bet he's also pulling it 50% or above in Minnesota. And in New Hampshire so yes. Take into consideration the polling area 2016. As in lesson about how elections and also take into consideration the this is a different like. And we have different via. And the date of this time shows that there are undecided voters. And that behind and lead in those key states Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's probably more reliable because these Arab it was if you like this video war even if you did and nature to subscribe to fire they're being I'm. You can't. I.
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