Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: The Cavs are in trouble
Neil basketball fans including us have been kinda disappointed about this finals rematch hurried to catch the warriors. Yet it seems we turn into a bloodbath the worst in the Catholic 33 points in game two. Has anything and NBA playoff history ever come back from this kind of situation so in the finals it's. Pretty rare and we kind of looked back at all of the NBA finals since 1984. Which is the first year that the NBA has its modern playoff structure. And we plotted out the first of all along the X axis the power ratings of the T teams how how where they regarded relative to each other going into the series. And then along the Y axis. The margin of victory after adjusting for home court in the first two games. Says he can see. There's only been one team that's the 2006 Miami Heat that fell into -- too -- nothing hole and managed to claw themselves out of that really the rest of the teens. And one out of fifteen that's only about 7%. The other 93%. Went on to lose so it's kind of difficult for the cavs just starting out 02 period IC now with some of these points is that we sixteen cats so the cavs they're not actually on this plot right now we do we have to add them in Palo louder again kind of the top to bottom view of the chart is. Showing the points per game margin. Over the first two games of the series in the cavs. Really have gotten destroyed unlike any of these other teams even among teams that went down 20 we haven't really ever seen an example of a team that not only went down two to nothing but went down and then waded the cavs have gone down and still managed to claw their way out of it. Now. 530 eight's. Hurt well predictions. Give the cavs only the weather person shot of coming back in her winning the series and that's essentially still more than you would expect from kind of the average team which is a testament to the resonated the cavs put up going into the series yeah well put it aside for a second big cats come neck and winning the series a statistic has just Willy game and would this week. Yet sadly that's kind of where the conversation is turning at this. Point and if you look at the 538 model we think there's a 75% chance that. The cavs when at least one games only 25% chance of the sweep and that's in line with the historical averages for teams to go down to low bottom line this week are pretty rare in the NBA playoffs especially at this stage. Oh lead in the playoffs for the teams are evenly matched and even after a team loses two games huge they still have a better chance of winning at least one game going for them. They steal for more NBA playoffs predictions and analysis please check out by 38 dot.
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