Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Dump Trump is real, but it is also weak
So it's really funny I was I was away at the beach you actually have a life allotments via for a couple days last week and this broke on Friday. I kind of came back into the real world and mostly what's going on this is not a real thing right and I stick by that I don't think this is the real thing I think it's a bit of you know people. Some of that people need to feel like to keep their hands busy while things are happening with people just need to Felix something is is being done to stop. Your Republican of a certain persuasion think he's done to stop. A guy who's kind of bad for your party. Right I mean I wouldn't put this in the category of just being a Bill Kristol fantasy you know it's not just something that's being spoken about in Washington it's presidents from I I think it is grassroots but I think a lot of the grassroots are already in states in which trump did not do well on the primary for instance. In Wisconsin that's one of the states where. The governor Scott Walker who is not a big fan of Donald Trump who ran for president walker did. Has said. Delicate should vote their conscience. Let me say I think 85%. Is. Far too low. I wouldn't put it a 100% they're gamblers they are gamblers and it's taken a chance take a chance on Mabel bring have been here. Com but naught you know I would basically say that if you look throughout the history of betting markets often times they overestimate how. Our I have a chance a long shot has of winning great yet it's Anderson I kind of wonder if some of the better interest rates and we'll maybe a third party person mobius spoiler for. You know want a candidate or another I mean it just seems sort of early in the game early in the summer before conventions dealers Connolly while it out in trying to figure out what's happening. Well. You know historically. Polls get a lot more accurate after the commission think we have to point that out before the convention they can tell us something. But it's after the convention that become a lot more accurate and the reason. Is that conventions are often times leaping off points for campaigns like Donald Trump strikes me as a little different because he's so well known yet what he's talked a lot about its you know we're gonna make this a different kind of convention now that could just be sort of trump isms but. One wonder he spoke a lot about how he's gonna bring sports star light accumulation so it seems to me it sort of seems like it's going to be sort of like a celebrity's soaps will sports celebrity soaked. A bent. I am very much looking forward to seeing what it is I. I I would just say trump has to do two things he has to rally the base and yes to reach out the militant can't just do one of the other needs to do both and able. To come out of the convention with a lead in that strikes me as a a hard task to accomplish. But you know Donald Trump.
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