Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Oct. 12, 2018
Yeah. The classic version of 530 -- house forecast currently gives Democrats a seven in nine or about a 78%. Chance of winning a majority. And it gives Republicans a two and ninety let's take a closer look at the five house races in Minnesota that we deem competitive. So Minnesota's second and third districts which are mostly located in the Minneapolis Saint Paul suburbs are both currently Republican Hal. What are model gives the democratic challenger in both of those districts. Five in six chance of winning and flipping through receipts as for Minnesota's first and eighth districts are mostly rural and they are both currently held. I Democrats. But neither incumbent is seeking re election of those two seats are open. Our model currently gives Republican Jim Hackett aren't two in three chance of winning in Minnesota 10. And it lists the eighth district as a likely Republican race giving Pete stopper a five in six chance of winning. The race was a tossup with stopper slightly favored. Until recent Siena College New York Times poll had snobbery of leading by over when he points so while Democrats could flip the more suburban second and third districts. Republicans could cancel out those gains by flipping the more rural first name. Asked for the last remaining competitive district Minnesota seven. Which covers most of the western part of the Stein our model gives democratic incumbent Collin Peterson and eleven in twelve chance of keeping that seat now. So it's probably a pretty safe for Democrats. In general the number of competitive districts in Minnesota five in total makes it one of the more interest in states to keep and I now. How well Democrats or Republicans do in those races. Could be a signal for how well the two parties are doing in the race for the house overall. Visit 538 dot com slash house forecast to explore the model for yourself. And.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.