Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Oct 17, 2018
Yeah. The classic version of 538 house forecast currently gives Democrats a five in six or about an 84% chance of winning a majority. And accuse Republicans. Want and texture. Are forecast also currently gives Democrats an average gain of 39. That's close to the best Democrats have done in our model since August law. Let's take a closer look at West Virginia three which makes up most of the southern part of the state. The third district is a Republican leaning district where our classic model really differs from the polls in fact. It's and one of the district's with the largest gaps between the classic and light versions of Armonk. So now why the difference. While the district is 37 points more Republican in the country overall. And our classic model is giving Republican nominee Carol Miller an 89% chance of winning the seat. However are like forecast which takes into account just to the polls. Only gives Miller as 64%. Chance of winning the polling in the district suggests a pretty close race with some polls having Miller winning eight points. And others giving her opponent democratic nominee Richard Regina. The advantage but the main reason why are classic model has Miller and such a heavy favorite is because of the fundamentals in the district which fever the GOP. Actors such as the district partisans lean which again heavily Republican and the fact that the sea was previously held by a Republican. Those fundamental factors outweigh some of the advantages the Democrats have in the fundamentals such as generic ballot polls and fund raising in the district. Altogether that gives the GOP close tort money four point fundamentals advantage so while expert ratings such as cook political report an inside elections lists this race as a lean Republican. Conservatives crystal ball even let's this race as a tossup. Our model thinks West Virginia three is a likely Republican race with the GOP candidate pretty heavily favored to win. Visit 538 dot com slash house forecasts to explore the model for yourselves.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.