Transcript for FiveThirtyEight House forecast update for Sept 7, 2018
Yeah. Version of I've street's house forecast currently gives Democrats about a 79. Chants and sent. Of winning in majority and Republicans. Justice to nine inches. Beyond those top line numbers our house model also forecasts. The national popular for. It was what happens when you out of the results in all 435. Counts. Easing that national popular vote can help but see some of the ways. In which the structure of the house beavers one party over the other. Mainly can help ST how fevers Republicans. Over Democrat. Take a look at this chart here on the except with this church is the popular vote margin how many more votes one party won an. Everything to left to even means the Democrats win the crew. Adding to the right means the Republicans. Now take a look at the Y axis which shows the seat breakdowns. Everything above the majority line reviewed democratic controlled house. And everything below would be GOP contract and here is how our model forecasts the likely outcome. The darker color blocks represented more likely thing parents. Take a look at the bottom right quadrant after you can see what happens when the GO PU wins the popular vote. As you can see they are all but guaranteed to win the majority of house seats in that scenario. There's basically no scenario. Republicans wean the popular vote but lose the house. But now take a look at the bottom left quadrant. Their Egan the Democrats could easily win the Parker wrote. And still fall short of controlling the house in fact Democrats don't become favored to win the mystery house seats. Unless they win the national popular vote by more than about five and a half. Percentage points according to remodel right now the most likely outcome 28 human terms the Democrats to exceed that threshold. But this is why it's when he eighteen to two elections are uphill climb for Democrats this structural damage the GOP is one reason why even a modest salary and the political environment could spoil their chance. Is it 530 dot com slash house forecast to explore the model for yourself.
This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.