Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Iowa Caucuses Preview
Welcome to factory it's Iowa caucus video preview if you cannot listen your podcast getter read our. Articles you can ask you some video Foreman here with clear Malone and Harry intend as always but finally. Guys we're any high stakes territory. Tonight may be the most important night of the election year except forward. November Election Day itself right now if you look at betting markets it has on the democratic side. Hillary Clinton is about 70% favor it. Bernie Sanders a 30% chance knowing is a shot Martin O'Malley she. Hearings where do you stand where probable a secure relative to that seven. I think I'd go a little bit stronger on Hillary Clinton I don't think that's much of a surprise Hillary. I don't think that's much of a surprise to anybody look Bernie Sanders has a shot of winning this there's no doubt about it but if you look. Clinton is leading in the vast majority of the polls she's led into the Moines register called my aunts also what you thought of as to postpone the State's. I'm she is led and all of the calls that are conducted using from voter registration lists which are thought to be more. Actually the more reliable polls are model which weights polls like the limits are heavily. Is an agreement with the markets we have hers about a 7030 favorite depending what money look at so. Not bad but pretty close not bad pretty close I would point out of course that just because of pollsters actor in a general election which is part of what our model takes account doesn't necessarily mean actor in the primary like quinnipiac. This hearing is anti general Bernie is what you're telling anti Bernie I think Indian Bernie surge that is an official 538. Policy to throw shade on having big rallies you'll see these brows areas like rock musicians and they have no celebrities. I would be swayed by RL is a kind of voter right there's. I gotta be said for those I gotta be honest I don't think any Iowa voter really cares at Cornell west thinks Tom Foreman hosts at least you know when I was talking to and tells her she told me about to win in 2004 when she. When she got us about the general election wrong she said were other reasons why. Terry brands that actually came up and told us he said you know other big rally I'm Sioux City. The bush team had like the day before the election and whether or not this is you know this is true but whether or not you can counties you think that this this hold any weight he said there's a huge turnout factor after that rally. And there was no way that your poll could've caught that resolve some things like that maybe have happened and maybe some people over the weekend are really like Dominic get out there I'm and I'm in a caucus for Bernie your chopper whoever it is a week. That you know that if this sort of on the margins. So. Trump vs Cruz would you take crews that could what adds yeah I think it is to not I don't I think Donald Trump as a favorite heading into tonight but again. It's not overwhelming if you look at our polls plus forecast for example Donald Trump is under 50% chance to win. Cruz is a little bit over for right around 40% to win so it's a close race trump his favorite but. I think one of the things you should point out as there were a few polls I came in very late over the weekend. I pollsters who we don't rape particularly highly but remember caucuses can change rapidly you might want a worst pollster who polls later and knows how to rubio search going so what have to wait and say. What do you think I mean do you think would you take crews at at 21. I agree with Terry that I would I think that Chris I think it'll be I think the most interesting BB storyline to see come out of the Republicans had the race is if rubio has this the sort of like. Pulling away. Buchanan and finishes may be especially strong third or there's so much hype. Over rubio though you wonder if it's like it 'cause I think we want a new element rates then I think it's been trump cruise for so long. And it's. Some way through get things overdue we wonder why there hadn't been more reputation toward when his candidates for its kind of very volatile situation where. On the one hand there can be in bandwagon effect and he has gained a polls it's not. It's not total BS is up from 12% to sixteen or 17% so there have been some games. But the expectations are higher now what do forget finishes with. Thirteen or fourteen he's Nestle so much of the ground game. No I if he finishes that low I think it's a real time to potentially reevaluate maybe where this race is. You know we've been saying hey wait a minute let's wait for this you know establishment lane and now we hate using that term status from but you know that sort of mainstream Republican lane. This is sort of winnow out and you get one guy but if rubio finishes in the low teens and then you go to New Hampshire will like four or five guys who were on the low teens themselves. I can be a complete mess and trumpet rolled Arum before you know or trust when Tuesday. So we think overall we're probably. Saying as a group and are models say that trump is the favorite but would probably say. Not quite as much of a favorite as the commission was months I think that's right. Recovering RS no different that the directions and beauty of.
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