FiveThirtyEight: Does Oregon or South Carolina have a chance against the favorites?

Neil Paine highlights key factors to each matchup of the NCAA men's semifinals that could contribute to victories for the underdogs and more drama in Phoenix.
2:32 | 06/09/18

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Does Oregon or South Carolina have a chance against the favorites?
Presented by. Precision crafted perform. The final four is finally sat with North Carolina exactly organs and South Carolina. And the way the bracket shook out have given us two very different NASA for sat one is pretty close to a 5050 point that would be between UNC or. On paper at least these are two relatively evenly matched teams easing rates among the top Forney on both offense and defense according to Ken Pomeroy efficiency. And even in the particulars of how he plays organ had some interesting ways to match up with North Carolina. For instance Carolina is great at pushing the ball in transition. Oregon also has one of the best transition defense isn't. And while the Tar Heels thrive off spot up shooting organ also is among the best that the thing what area where this game might be decided is on the glass where organs undermanned front court doesn't really have a great answer for North Carolina as we've now onto the more lopsided matchup between in Baghdad and South Carolina both teams are making their first appearance in the final four but as well Logan's Agha is no stranger to pretty deep turn runs even though this is the furthest they've gone South Carolina and the other hand hasn't been anywhere close to here a long time and may even surprise that's going into this turn. How are they able to knock out so many higher seeded teams. In a word. Defense they held Marquette duke Baylor and Florida all well below their regular season average for offensive efficiency when they played them in the term it. And that's a big reason why they have the second best defense in the country again according a Pomeroy. But there's one slight problem that the number one defense belongs to south Carolina's opponent. In Zack and on the opposite side of the ball it's no contest does that rank fourteenth nationally in offensive efficiency in South Carolina is all the way back in a 105 place. Now we shouldn't count South Carolina out there had already the most improved team in the bracket by far. But even so. The give and snag about a 70% chance of winning and moving onto the national fund. Because they have such high that's also why did Zagat is pretty heavy favorites to win the turner. But the 42% chance it's almost double the probability of anyone else in the field. But if we learned one thing for me instantly turn me it's that anything can happen so don't be surprised if we see you in seeing exactly South Carolina and Oregon or anything in between. Either way you can follow us all week from more final or content at 538 dot.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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