Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Politics chat
So good night for trump in New York very simply has to get over 50% statewide if it falls below that I put characterize it as falling below expectations. We have them generally getting you know in the mid eighties in terms the delicate count not getting over 50% number districting eyes and how many. Eighties out of 95 I'm sorry I think that everybody has been following New Yorkers watching this but maybe not maybe we have new there's some view a live normal lives. Excuse me. I'm very abnormal lives right if there be pretty darn abnormal to know exactly how many delegates. New York as well we're pretty damn it Carl normal crew 1%. We we're on percent to the 1%. Outside any event the point being that trump basically wants to when the vast majority of delegates not but even if he does that. He still will not be on the pace to get the 1237. Delegates. At least with pledged delegates he'd Needham pledge but it's a necessity nor have any real shot down the line to get you have a good night New York. We'll have a Clinton's polling. Right now pretty pretty well above Bernie Sanders I think just getting you know hitting the marks were she isn't in the polls right now on sort of keeping the momentum going and saying I hate you know not to use the Nazis VMware and and and present come out. But just it just sort of sniffing in the bud all this talk of Bernie's closing the gap converting when New York he spent a lot of money here so she's just passed a sort of you know prove her strength and. New York and I think that Clinton's winning the delegate math war but as had a real problem the PR war and being able to win by say. Double digits would certainly help her and the PR for. And the flip side is. We've had a lot of recent contests where it seem like in the polls are gonna hit on the mark or they'll. Be a little bit more Sanders in the actual voting right here you can see it going either way because of how hard it is to vote. In New York if you haven't been mentioned as a Democrat for a long time. There rules favored people who are more terrorist party regulars or maybe older people people who have been in this furlong time of Celek in a stake in the game which tend to be more. Clinton voters right the strong Democrats Kennedy Clinton voters. I Clinton and trump romped to victory come other regaining momentum in critical contests. We loving the Ralph lately the Robin headline. Routes they route route. Yes I think it'll be rapture romp. Something along those lines I don't do it New York Times headlines. I'm fairly sure the daily news book called New York Republicans clowns as a clown winds protect clown car clown make up. And up probably mentioned Clinton at some point but they want is work hometown boy and girl makes good. That sounds more like maybe a post it. I'd say Bernie Sanders has more riding just because if he does. If the polls are really wrong ala Michigan and he's he actually looked polls. Had a really close to Hillary Clinton that's like that's a big that's a big deal whereas Cruz I think is playing more of flight said he small ball picking off. Delegates and that's kind of his game out in this. Let me flip that a little bit. If Bernie Sanders has a bad night. Then the race. It's probably over I mean I think there races arguably over Jose end but. Well you would think. But if he loses by. By seventeen points or something then it goes from. We need the best case scenario took a pipe dream to like a shade beyond a pipe dream especially because. I week from today five states vote their old demographically similar. And so seniors loses new work by seventeen points he knowing he's coming and least Pennsylvania the Acela corridor and so forth also had come. So these next eight days. Could effectively end. The democratic contest.
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