Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Biden responds to sexual assault allegations
Hello and welcome to the fire pretty politics podcast I'm Gayle and we're on Friday its former rice president Joseph Biden for the first time publicly personally denied allegations of sexual assault. From his former senate staffer Tara Reid. His campaign had previously denied the allegations terrorists are experts. Power high profile elected Democrats and voters reacting to the allegations and Biden's response. Also another competitor is likely joining the race between Biden and president trop. Michigan congressman Justin Hamas announced his exploratory committee for president last week. A former Republican and member of the freedom caucus he was an independent until Friday when he officially became a libertarian. So why is he planning a run at how could it affect the race. Reacting to all of that today related you that our editor in chief Nate Silver Haney. AT and all of us in politics right or climbed one declare hiking. And managing editor America card America glued Dylan Clark are on. I also want to mention before we get started that 538 is launching a new podcast. Asked focused on the corona virus pandemic. Called pod cast nineteen. There's still a lot unknown about the virus and our colleague and Ross child and our former politics podcast intern Jake Arlo are going to be tracking what the scientific community is learning in real time as well as some of the economic and political fallout from the parent. The also be answering a lot of your questions Anchorage want to go check it out to find the pod cast search 538. Corona virus or on that note. And before we get to Biden and Hamas. Let's check in on where we are in the arts crisis as we've been gearing checking in on the data so as of Monday morning. The reported deaths from corporate nineteen in the US are nearing seventy and and we watched a tracker net aggregate several different forecasts of adapt hole from Harvard. So. Me looking at back. Looking at those projections what we know right now about we're we are. Robbie in the course of this pandemic in the United States and where we're had. I don't think we know that much about where we are or were headed I am. So. Guests are act. Some type of plateau and media plateau with a gentle slope downward. Clearly in some of the most hardest hit regions so. New York. New Orleans numbers of lines and machine gun under. The promise to kind of subtracting out those bridges that were relatively early. And now on the down slide in us now it's not clear that country's much progress and numbers. Lap and some metrics you look at. Things like we're going back now and capturing yes that anchor eighty you know that we never. Were. Cool calm. A look at how many cases there are cases we emphasize. Or subject to testing there have been more tests. Conducted. On in the US that scripts that get more task to find more cases. We're not simply like this we're not seeing. The big all her time cartoon. Com. Net. Or the. People are models are assumptions Idaho where we are policy that places like New York which is what. Next thing we're certainly not seen that. Sounds are wide outs have plateaued. Wow com. Because you know our social distancing has not been that engine. Number one and number two the only two we've been used haven't really been doing testing a little bit under. Most ease him into contact tracing. No mask wearing his that in some places and others on. You know social this was not supposed to the only tool. Act in park has its I'm. Costly. In part because kind of the American version of it where there is still this whole new carve out where wherever third where are. Essential services and I'll. People who are not able to. Read under. The benefits it's. And so yeah. One answer that on is that Americans also thing is enough to do. In the urban your original sense that. Maybe not candid camera that much. And in places like me your. You might see super declined because number one people are a little bit more strict about distancing winner in areas have been harder on the number two frankly in New York. Enough people have. It's a seat says when he pursue people in your city had balance for corona virus. 20% of people have antibodies that can actually have some effect. Partial herd immunity mom you're Ottawa. There's the Eritrea according to people get it right do you happen to make that point or when your art percent. Gain. And the number seem to come down a little bit lower on the other thing. I think Ricky Martin's that there was a lot of it is sweet on Bob. Mobility. Apple and other companies. Literally how much people are moving around in walking on the prince's. On people we're moving around. A lot more this weekend they had in the past. It's especially true in. East weird you have big shifts in weather people are excited to get outside. Tom it's live at work you're actually in red states and Blue States. A little bit more true place where there are fewer cases and deaths I'm. It's everywhere all kind of anecdotal accounts but I assume people are icy ball. Driving around right now it's validated by day and so I think we're com. You have any more fierce a about reopening works anarchists and protesters. Capital somewhere. It's people kind of losing tolerance for your time when in. It's not clearer. How much did it how much better situation is getting. I will say. You know were in well I'm in New York I think Galen their New York to near city that you're not in your right. I ended not with sister. Brett. We had like the first really nice weekend I think of the spring here probably. Both days senators and we're really nice and not only Marmol more people out I am. Six weeks had happened where mask after I think it took a little bit for it for those masks. To be adopted. I've really noticed a stark decline in the in the number of people wearing masks that what's it would just I'd say that just the kind of backed up. I am. What Nate was saying in net and knitting as an am I'm Mike reacting to this in real time that the New York Times has published this. Candidate got a hold of that internal. Am CDC report. That. Has the number. Positive cases in the number of deaths Tenet increasing over Mike Dee at the daily death count. Increasing to about 3000 by early June I say that not to say that light that projection has gospel and I am. But just to say that it does feel like where we're in kind of really important moment as states begin welcome back. Am. Where. Things could get worse pretty quickly. Based on some protections if if you know the wrong conditions or place. And what can I mean Italy actually his critically for city dollars for New Yorkers has sort of been. A Mark Kirk what are the numbers like there for kind of like the reopening have has there been a back slide. As far as you know. It's an uptick in cases. In Italy using to happenings in New York where so many people got it at that desolate town. On people don't wanna hear so much. Any acts from her immunity canoes. They OK well hanging. On the court often go for herd immunity right a lot of artists would not think it's a good idea however it is the case that you know in Bergamo Italy. Here to answer a lot to survey showing that 60% or something of that city media works to place in the world. On. You have 6% already had and you could have maybe actually. True her immunity. In particular look now I'm. So that does government backed him when he CE numbers. Coming down fairly seek re. Bob. You know your New Yorkers saying. Com arts and that's because like some out of that like. And have been partners. So some ways you kind of read. In the worst period and the worst my theory is gonna have face lying. And lots of reasons. And the average years robbed. Oh yeah if you don't remember where New York rarely experienced then. The backside of that you might have steeper declines. I don't think they'll agree wants experience that. Be just because we do tend to focus on the political consequences here. You don't. Our -- come come to fruition and and there is an increase in. The daily death. Cole. In the daily case count. Now and I think we're talking about like a whole another level of political repercussions in terms of trump then we are now I mean that would be fairly devastating. In actual terms but also in in political and I think. I think region. Obviously states are kind of beginning to program now it's something like. Half of the states in the country or more parents on phase. Reopening and as we've mentioned it really takes you to three weeks. To see we. What happens in this Brad Adams restrictions are after so will definitely talk a lot more on this podcast about the repercussions of those measures as we see as I mentioned at the top Biden denied a sexual assault accusation from his former senate staffer terror read publicly on. Account is Becky and her against a wall and reached up her skirt and a building in the capital area in 1990s. The Washington Post and the New York Times published investigative reports looking into those. He spoke with a friend who anonymously corroborated story and numerous former staffers who did not call the story or any other assault allegation. Business insiders spoke with Reid's neighbor from the mid ninety's robbery. It reads account. And various outlets have also found inconsistencies. Account. So I just I want to ask as robbing out I didn't has kind of in this tapped to publicly talk about it and diet. Does that denial suffice. Toward Democrats to move forward with nominating and supporting Joseph Biden. And it read about this a little on Friday. How little Monica therapies. And this is pink setting aside. There is a real and ballot conversation about. Veracity of the claims are you prove the grassy sexual assault and all that stuff let's table for second. And I think woo her confining this at least for right now to sort of the political. Ramifications of this which. You know might my ten crass tube but also politics is kind of crafts. And you know kind of what I try to detect tackle was basically the realpolitik concerns of Democrats right witches. This is a party that has embraced the meat to ethos the believed women ethos of me to. In no small part because. Especially you know in the past for years has been a huge you know. Am movement of women to the Democratic Party and it's consistently you know women's entry scripts have been. A real. Strong and important part of of democratic you know coalitions. Biden was getting critique from a lot of groups is in the party year interest groups in the party for having. In two silent on this. Maybe it's because terror reads claims were seen by them at first as being let's not give oxygen to the standard and others too many weird things going on this story. Am but I think you've ultimately seen in the past week. And oh. A lot of women elected officials officials in the party have come out and vote. Police said yes I believe women but also I believe Joseph Biden here. And that is been a really important. Thing for Biden and I think it probably frankly. Helps him this is sort of weird way to put it but the fact that the president has. At least seventeen. Allegations of sexual assault against him including rape. That Meeks. You know well which is worse let's assuming everything is true for both these guys. Which would viewers to have an office okay Biden has may be the lesser of two evils so I'll cotton support him so it's kind of a weird. Odd dark. Political storyline here. That we are gonna go into the twenty twin election was too. Sexual assault stories swirling around the nominees. Yeah it's been com. It's been super interesting to watch. This dynamic Clare Clare write about and and just talked about where. And and it it's I'd describe this in correctly people jump in but it feels like. At least among Democratic Party a leads. I'm including elected officials and interest groups that line has gone from. Two. Every woman deserves to be heard. And all allegations should be investigated. Currently com. Which are two different things right. And and substance aside I mean maybe maybe. Maybe that latter position as this is to position. You personally actually think we should. We should and got that right am. It's certainly not a coincidence that you've seen this shift to this new position. As the Democratic Party the Democratic Party nominee. Is facing these allegations right. Yet no it's it's a totally. It's a totally interesting point and and I think. You saw I think the Al Franken situation. Is have is a treaty good they did. Precedents for what Biden is going through an intimate to look at. Am in a Franken was accused of forcibly kissing people on potentially groping people. And you saw a lot of actually in the Q would he among democratic voters about whether or not he should step down at the time you know lot of people in polls. Acting 2017 in his outlining allegations against him happens 2018. Recently Tony Teaneck and scandal -- years. People are saying let's wait for the results of an ethics investigation you know there what there weren't as many people Democrat's. Outright saying Franken should resign. But there was then this movement by his senate colleagues to say no. You need to step down RBC sort of themes that electrocution Gillibrand and then I think that had sort of Summers not resounding effects on her career potentially when she ran for president. But there was a more. You know protected fueling by democratic voters that you know as far as absolute and goes within the believe women meet to movement when it came to someone who was frankly a star with in the Democratic Party. And I see what's what you're running into here for Democrats specifically. Are. That the movement to believe women is I think a really. Effective. Lined that activists and and advocates for women talk in order to. I seat change the culture and conversation around the when we discussed sexual assault right which had which had lumps of overwhelmingly. Tips to men. I think the legal considerations are sort of very different right but in a court of law. It's still you know innocent until. Proven guilty right the court of public opinion though is very different and so what we're seeing right now is setting his sights heard of the court of law and whether or not. You know sexual assault cases are very difficult. To prove and to try and they're obviously relieved. Nazis out all that stuff. But in the quarter public opinion what the Democrats are doing right now answered trying to make. Com O. Is being managed by the Democrats. Yes it's worth saying here that you know we're not going to be able to determine during the course of this segment whether or not you know. These claims are true and we may or may not house I'm kind of definitive conclusion between now and Election Day. We are as he sat are talking about politics and so when it Donna's home. You. The voters item that sat in the Al Franken case they were more skeptical. Out the idea of it he should step down. Before any kind of ethics investigation. Whereas the party elites were more forceful and now we seen this time around party elites are you know. Still acting Biden still supporting him when are the voters. Yeah I mean it's it's it's early to say get them right has because I think. The mainstream news media was would slow to cover this item. And I would expect to see and we've already seen jumping coverage now that now that Biden has actually. Commented personally on right time. But you got had a poll. For example where. You know they asked how much have you heard about this story and only 16% of people hurt a lot re not half of people 49%. At her to let all. About thirty people have heard. Nothing at all so I I would say where in the very early. Early going here right. But that you got poll also asked people. GT find allegation against Joseph Biden. Credible or not credible. Overall about one in four people 26%. Said credible. M. 15%. Said not credible and almost half 45%. That they haven't heard enough time if you lump in not sure with that in Europe to 60% majority of people. Basically don't know yet right. If you look at that partisan cross that party ID. Democrats were the least likely to say the allegations. Are credible right 17%. Verse 22% independent and 43%. For Republicans. Again though most people are in the kind of like I don't know enough about this yet. But if you had any illusion sound like voters. Wounded. Would not view this stuff there were partisan lands then you're kidding yourself right I think. Everyone. Views everything through partisan lines and in a lot of ways how elected officials reacted to Frankie and was the outline there. I am in that you had members of his own party pushing for for his ouster right com. All this other stuff is very much to more. Yeah did you wanna just add to what you say I'd Mike it if we get to the point where a lot more people hear about it. And this is verified one way or another they also ask you know if these allegations are true that your poll. You know do you think this disqualifies him from the presidency. And but the overall number was 29%. Thought it disqualified him and that is 23% Democrats thirty Republicans are you don't have. You don't even if people believe this were true lot about it in the press or in. Political advertising. The degree to which people feel like it would disqualified Biden from the presidency. Is still. Somewhat limit. I mean this is the whole thing it's like I think it's one reason why. Did media I think we talked about this before but it's one reason why the media was slow to cover this is. Trumps the allegations against trump. I'm. And and there are many of that Matt and then there's also video of him bragging about sexual assault. Even imply it starts with the horse race premise. How will this affect the election. I am. Did that the likely answer as a probably won't have a big effect on the election either way angrily and I might that would be that that would be true. Even if some definitive proof came out. Maybe maybe you know might now be my dad at least I'm in I would be shocked that the bike. So if that's the case then then I think for a lot of the media. You know date they are they're not sure which angle to covered from. Because the other obvious angle is is this true or not and as Claire were saying at the start. These kind of cases you're almost never gonna get you know. A definitive answer one way or the other right. It's also I mean it's the it's the what about is them that has crept into. American political life right I mean trump. I guess can't only. Did the what about moves in 2016. When he was you know accused of Ole all of these sexual assaults. And then he said well Hillary Clinton. Turned a blind I to her husband's. Kahn sexual abuse. How terrible right so key so he turned Saddam hurt and I think we're seeing you know. I said before Nancy twenty twin election that centers around the has story lines of sexual assault from both candidates we know it. We had gotten 2016 to a certain degree so it is this this kind of I mean maybe he did this thing but this person in the southern thing so who what about that and I think it's this this. It's kind of distant pervasive. Phenomenon in our political culture. So we've talked about where we are in this political moment but there's about. Almost exactly six months between today and election. End up playing our. Going war bulls in how to press covers this how this has added along. You know there's a lot of time for this story to potentially. Oh ball. Where it received things heading for air. Mile. I think that. There are no big revelations and other side. The revelers. The revelation might be partners and contemporaneous documentation. Robbed. A bigger enlistment yet there Unger. On the side. There's revelation that. Really commander. Credibility above and beyond. Ordinary ways arts has always attack the credibility or sheet since you know whenever it's none of those kind of out liar outcomes happen various buyers like and I think it probably would me some way. The public's memory by. Election he actually already half. And people saying. Democrats saying this so bad that like you defeated Houston we saw how the vote. I. And might be easier that win on man. The other heart you. Crop has been its use of multiple. Incidents of sexual. A salt and adjacent things that right arm. And so I don't know right om I don't think the question about light. How the press should have been covering it is. Hugely straight oh. Om. And it's a difficult. Pace right. Om and I think they probably are doing a lot of reporting. On background net of taxes that they me. Also be affected by all. But. You know to clarify you're talking here about like the accusation and largely from the right but also there's just been some on during media criticism about the mainstream prost not giving enough. Kind of air time to. It has a lasting. And so I mean. Do you find that criticism of the way the process handled us to be legitimate. I think it probably is. I'm not some of the goes around saying the media and. Com. That act the average he's needs. Liberal com. OpenId standard properly. Lights. Ways it's like this yo Nam. You know the media reportedly operated accusations and like reported on. Lots of kind of stuff. Analysts look how many do you do clintons a thing where people were on more circumspect and how they talked about it. Saying that like. Oh this is not. Right. On yeah oh. On the spectrum between. If you can't prove it. Hey this seems totally out of left field and totally. Obviously. Created you know. Neither of those ride somewhere in the big mushy middle between. I'm oh. Being very credible Andy not very credible and there's a hole lead in between space there. What's wrong with that beat you know that the left leaning media was reporting Essen hosts criticisms coming from the far left of the Democratic Party or the right. But when it comes down to it reporting sexual assault allegations is the sweetie and complicated thing. I think he read it stories from the news the major newspapers about her. What is I think troubling to. Activists are sexual assault advocates horror you know victims of rape or sexual assault is that often Americans interact. With. This dialogue. Via politics right thigh partisan lands on something so we obviously saw the Kavanagh here straight and Resop. And a huge gender split in polling between a wave men and women view between the way. Republicans and Democrats unit and Christine classy Ford was. A quote unquote ideal victim right someone to. Appeared to be very earnest appearances you know maybe not be in at Freddie personal gain appear Ito. Credible all this stuff right there was a lot of talk about that what agree. Witness. Tara Reid I think. Hasn't had a more complicated background. And I think we also have to talk about that which is that the public. The public just judged you know. Does make these implicit judgments about. People and whether or not they're credible and then you layer on the idea politics. And you've got to super soupy story. That I do think is very different from the majority of sexual assault cases in the country which. Are not. Politicized dinner. I mean. Ordinary is a terrible word for it but that's what it is it's an ordinary phenomenon in America sexual violence so. That's what I think it also makes it so difficult and journalistically. Ex take assault allegations. Carefully and Parse through them. I'm. There is Obama. Political. Exodus is well in terms lose woman's. Police and so you know it's it's a complicated case up and I'm. You know I do you think. Appointment seems. Inevitable and out to me right it does make it clear and liberals. Notion locate well always believed. Women. Leave him in. On me now it's complicated clearly. Something. Robbed. C or. To be a little to debate just have to modify that position going forward like does this act as some kind of turning point in how little laughed. Resents the meat you movement meant movement and it talks about it in public. I mean look if you have be democratic. Nominee. Or president. Use of this. Eight here are accused of sexual assault. You want a prominent liberals saying. Well I'll vote for him anyway here I don't believe. You know whether it's a turning point to Haiti well to place I don't know like it seems like you would be. I would have to like it mower. And more complicated and nuanced discussion. About about. How meat he proceeds it. Right yeah I mean you know actually there's also like. Side whether people in the meeting room and you're like I'm really matter to us accusation. Because it isn't messy. Accusation. We're all types. Bob political back story tied up in it and act and an excellent her to deal with it and so I don't know I mean but I mean it's it's. It's not on. In some ways. The future the need to movement I think is it mower. Risk in some ways them. In your mind. Well I think Galen was Smart to drop in some stuff in our when Leno and are no preparation channel. That talked about the weighty women's groups were responding to that a censored of the report that the time's up group inserted. Declines to. Help terror read in her case so there is an indication from within. That movement itself that there is trepidation. About getting involved. With something like this because obviously. You know gators. There's discussion among people those groups about what could this be risky could to risk our credibility with you know the the broader movement woody can get mired in. You know she deepened in the messy world the politics so it is. Am. Yeah. Message. Let me just turn a few things. One is if there is a sort of like. Okay what is your default position. When an allegation surfaces and that deep opposition. Or to meet two movement or democratic elected officials ships from. The leads women to. Everyone gets. Everyone should get a chance to be heard and all claims should be seriously investigated. It's important to realize is liked that if that shift happens. It will be a shift happening to do with. Light. Allegations surfacing in the context of politics. I'm and the reason that's important news. There are reasons why allegations. Might surface and politics that don't exist in every day for life right. False allegations and everyday life are exceedingly rare I'm. Rare to the point where it's like. You know. It's not really worth talking about really. In the context of politics that's a little different. And so it's somewhat unique circumstances. In that thing is. Saying. I'm still gonna vote for by then. Isn't inherently. A contradiction. The belief women passes right. Assistant. Did political gab fest and Emily got Saddam Hussein might. Ways second. You know as if as a feminist and has a one man I get. I get that the kind of realpolitik to write like it might just because I'm a feminist doesn't me and I don't get to like. Make hard edged political decisions and if that decision is. Only dominant vote for the guy with kind of one. Complicated allegation over the guy we're at 2000 allegations. That's not that's not a reputation right. Believed women message. Certainly the gum gum back to that the start of this I do think like. There are a lot of people on the left right now saying things that people on the right were saying. During the Kavanagh hearings and getting chip and there's people on the right we're getting shouted down. And now people on the left many from the during the shouting down. Where are are saying the same things. That doesn't mean that the people on the right during cap and all are operating in good faith I think most of them weren't right. And it does mean people are operating gets it now I think. Mostly nobody operates in good faith. And it just you accuse clocks an extremely path and votes. Any final plot wrapping up there. I think the I think the artists. Consideration that most democratic voters will make probably the privacy of their own home with the people at their closest to you when they're talking about this is. Let's set aside whether or not. Ignited the milk bill could they're consideration will be. To see mauled its true. Which is worse trump her bright. Auto Democrats will probably still vote for Biden. Because keep Ito and the night and I think that there is. There's a sad and very vocal active people. Online for very long time. Disenchanted by politics and politicians in particular. So a lot of people are kind of like an. Or else -- like I'll just vote for the one I think is less company which it again was the dining income between sixteen election to if you looked at. You know historically disliked candidates oh. I think twenty succeeding also com. Acts that way Japanese media handles it kinda affects. Discourse that. Liberals with the news media. You'll see a lot of the case. I don't who and others who worry election where these are cast and shadows and doubts and uncertainties. Who were any different right. With Hillary Clinton and emails you have something which is kind of Rubin's. By I'm relatively minor. I think you know something that. True would be very serious but is unproven and may be hard to ever group either way. Still don't know to like in the lingering doubts in that kind of trees analogy is something that. Democrats there are wary out of her way to covers it so there might be kind of like. Sort of push back. Against the need is researching OK now it's going to be please see all over again right. And that's it and it to that it is and in. Were you. Yeah all right well we will see how this call is out but for now let's move on and talk about Johnston hamas' bid for the White House Michigan congressman Joseph Austin a mosque announced his exploratory committee for president last Tuesday. And officially changed his party registration from independent libertarian on right now the libertarian nominating convention is currently scheduled for Memorial Day week. So there are. Dvd writer got the nomination but it seems like he plans on running ads about means a mosque to be on the ballot in November alongside aidid and and I just let's begin we had that basics here it is rationale. Claire why is Dawson a mosh adding a third party campaign for president. 'cause it's fun and indifferent. A quick sidebar. Will have our I want to the libertarian. Nominating convention. For years ago in 2016. Over Memorial Day he was in Orlando Florida. It was in a hotel convention center that was hosting the libertarian convention. And ate couple Blakey cartoon cost play convention. So all of that costly people were mixing with the libertarians and honestly sometimes there is. And difficult some libertarians came costumed as well. And then also opt aside there is an Irish step dancing competition so it was a real like mention option of things. She libertarian foreign. Just in the mosh. That is like. That is like the perfect kind of that yet of America. It was a very. It was fun but also really interesting liked lit libertarians. An interesting grip it you know there's a lot we can on the whole conversation about. About libertarian but it it was it was a fun weekend. Anyway. Just a mosh. I think. Does have this is relevant and sense of why is just now mosh Ryan saying if he's been so tissue disillusioned by trump if he doesn't want trump to be the president shouldn't he. From a gun back to our previous segment from a realpolitik poignant view shouldn't he say it like others never choppers. You know what I'm in a boat for Biden he's he's a traditional politician. I think he's got some you know more middle of the road views great this is extenuating circumstances I'll hook for an. I guess the reason why a mosh is brushing is the reason why. Previous third party candidates have Brenda for witches. It's a certain personality type that is more about ideal operate his his presence as a member of the freedom caucus tells you something about Justin a mosh rate. Which is that he has am. A certain. Idealistic. Media and realistic theory being less charitable to him in view of what is. Possible within the current system of American politics also promote it for if for giving him credit for being a politician and being a realpolitik. Practitioner which I think he probably is on some level. What great great way to raise your profile right. You know is is run for president we talked about this before. So I think it's. It what we also from. Another. Re Al policy perspective. He might out of won reelection as an independent and has Republican congressional district written yet. Yeah. So it's so it is. It's it's kind of like why not move and what I think what we'll get into here is. He's a Michigan hander and those standards have a lot of wasted can use the twenty funny election. Michigan. People from Michigan scientists. And that's what they're. From just getting a look I'm getting a look across the area that comment we. Had surprisingly few presidents at the Gerald lowers him emission standard and I'm surprised you had any mean. Of Micah. Grammy and an app where content nor how the code is Michigan the worst thing what's Pennsylvania products like. He's accused Buchanan Pennsylvania. Us in the coming up are you plans Jersey or Pennsylvania. I'm from Pennsylvania bank high school and terraces. But I would say. You know based on the latest data I've seen. After north the code Michigan is. Probably the worst state in the yeah. The only president ordered Pennsylvania. Jeans and the worst president. Are. That's at her record late you're you're running on Gerald Ford action like Gerald Ford I'm okay. Your words just I'm. It I didn't gateway and that's our that's went to Michigan and Michigan where there like they made me go do it late can call them each. I'm. In the business getting out the business gonna get off routes pass. OK at its regular. Pennsylvania. You're all but. We consider the Jersey Shore has really just part of pence and he's eluded an exterior. Are we at the Delaware River. Or Erie Pennsylvania Catholic. We have a lake and like I said we consider the Jersey Shore basically part of Pennsylvania. OK much so. I think that LeClair said the fact that by the and one. Orders the presumptive democratic nominee. Makes him mosque Tennessee at it weird if Bernie had wine then you'd be like okay this makes a fair amount to cents time. Just ideologically right but what you would think at least on paper Hamas would be more okay with a Biden presidency. Down. Then Bernie presence he certainly a. Given that he voted to impeach. Com. The other thing just to lay out their elective a few things. If history holds. I am a mosque vote yet. Very few votes time. Most likely to support what kind of Peter out as Election Day approaches. I am. And I think it's tough to say who hill pulled more support from you know when he announced this I think you saw a lot of Biden supporters say hey what. Man like your gun. Sort of split that anti trump right am. Like you could equally say OK maybe I'll split. The conservative. Right so I don't I don't think it's obvious really I think where where Clara and that what she was saying his. Is maybe the most meaningful part of this which is Michigan. M Masha some state. Likely to be a very close election although than those given this current fires. And I am. And so could he play spoiler you know a lot of people. Accuse Jill Stein and Gary Johnson playing spoiler in the states and 26 team. But the margins are so close and if they are gimmick anything could place spoilers I don't know Adam. Nate you have an opinion about who helped poll. More firm. I think there's justice. I am. Among Democrats in general. And there trumpets and any possible piece of news. Must be bad. Com. First consummation probably won't get many votes I think because people seem too much is being hugely consequential. Their muscle to look for a third party. And you know libertarian is and is not a hugely the popular set of beliefs soon. In the US on animosity some ways is more about it. Sure kind of constitutional us libertarian and light. Gary Johnson and libertarian means that organist Rica but there are. So you know what you must popular right. Look at me as a very naive prior he is. A conservative. And the Z. Had him anymore conservatives are right loser to see whether it's not a great here without much examination records. Very different concern on the opposite ways that person. Servers. I am I you know your first oxidation to have me on. Your current Annie on their right. I think is probably not great news item right on course is like. Never trust Republicans have voted order. In the obviously give them an off ramp. I'm rewarding trunk or an off ramp routing order. I did and I'm not sure. And there isn't a lot of polling. One on tech in terms of the never choppers I think and and Perry. They can junior. Parts writers has appease Communist. That ET lot of never trappers come become more mart matched in the Democratic Party. Am. And so if you're never trump or year. You've been a member of the Republican Party probably your whole life and then you see trump has. Such a a threat to the democratic no harm. That he use. And in the party some people leave the party before supporting Biden and or at least trying to affect the democratic primary. And I have a hard time believing a lot of those people will turn around and Eli. Oh economic action in a vote for someone with no chance of and then the contestants are out there is. I find deliberate Terry in. Part of this story sleepers trusting and libertarian as a missile is like a fascinating story. Art super popular. M. And a lot of times you'll see like libertarian groups and up press releases where they take flight. Their most popular position and their like you know actually 80% of people libertarians. Am. But an a lot of those lot of their ideas are really popular the Libertarian Party. Am. Or being a capital L libertarian. Is not popular at all. Am and so. You know. There's a version of this I think that could work. I'd adds a third. Party Tennessee. Or as you know I'm running as one of the major parties but not the like. Hard core across the board member Terry birch. Yeah Perry to not point. You know words saying that as we speak Hamas as polling at a 2% nationally. On. But when you do look at some of the very nimble polling that has been done looking at a mosque what poll more support for on. I'm looking at some reporting from David pilot in the Washington Post. A 2019 Michigan polls showed that. And Hamas was included Ian in Michigan poll and then nationally a democratic firm. Found that Hamas was pulling more support from Democrats and democratic leaning independents than from Republicans and Republican meaning. Independence 7% to four or media not. All of that data anywhere. That gets me to this cross which is. Who is adjusted a mosque voter record these people that you know repeating a verdict provided in. And Nan went monsters are props and that's it is it has never trump Republicans what's the lake if you had to describe Hamas Carter who has. Com. Yeah it's never for Republicans right that's produced authority but it just think he's probably like. Probably he would candidate it. We're them you know but like what he never come Republicans do in the end I guess they I knew they would provide new departments and the like. Much for and is not great news. Kind of like I'm. Oh never Republicans kind of like in just a question begs the question a little bit. They're subset. Re like a subset of the theater like. Do have a problem with voting for or. A Democrat or somebody's. Ports. Me. You know who. Pro choice position whatever it might be and then they're his other set of people there like I'm never trump. For reasons of pure political expediency witches. I wanna vote for the person who's gonna win who will kick up out of office. If Ford I have to vote Joseph Biden even if I admired Justin mosh went up there. I think those are more overwhelming. Proportion of never tempers could that's kind of the we approach that a lot of the mayor. Too partisan politics. It's in the name really might be my best guess is that. A mosh world. Draw from a portion. Of Gary Johnson's voters in 2016. And Gary Johnson didn't get a lot of it's so if hamas'. Getting up portion of that then you can't seeing him gone very far but again. Allowing states may be are going to be super close you know if if if Hamas does end up drunk disproportionately. From one candidate. And we don't know that he will. But if he does then he could have a real effect on the. Was that you marker arguments in abortion message in order right on your cell and then like. Oh I really don't like from mine. Pro life voter and their tour record here is appropriate pre. Our choice. Pro abortion and they didn't. See aero but not record deal. And people that I'm. Taken from her yeah her her. Abortion really is a weird the weird issue for libertarians. Right to a tiered if you're trying to win the nomination at the libertarian convention. Probably gonna make some concessions appear pro who. Life former Republican. Yeah as we're talking about those dimensions are little unconventional. So it's. You know. And I for one other thing in here witches I am. We had a article on this sad about this from. Jeff Skelly and Julius. Yet looking at history and political science research on this town. Third party candidacies and do better. Win and the major parties. Are in a state of transition. So Ross Perot. Did really well. And united Democrats were debating whether. You know the kind of news Latino like oh what's that Clinton group called new Democrat new Democrat right am. And and kind of pact as a senator you know com. Republicans were deciding whether to kind of stick with like the George H. W. Bush. Old guard or the app you can and kind of cultural conservatism. Time. And now partly explains I think why in 2016. While you had some conditions that wooden. Make you think oh a third party candidate assistant year you know if June 2 major party nominees or just. Historically disliked as Claire mentioned earlier I am. And yet we didn't see it they third party I think because the parties are sort of very very very defined. Com. And they're very very defined again and twenty on so although. She meets your point Michael we did see in some of the district's areas of the country does model law from like Romney and Clinton Clinton war from Obama to its prompt. There was actually. Larger numbers. Kind of Johnson horror left blank voting and then you've seen in previous years. The parts of the country that actually worried transistor you do it see more of that rejecting both candidates kind of behavior at least from the reporting that I did what he pulls out for example. Oh like west Houston that went far from Reno routed Clinton. To have a lot of people. That. Are. In. More ten new lists. You know camps within each party re so in the Democratic Party. Am that's moderates right kind of like culturally conservative moderates. Am. And and I've hinted that more news hats I should say the parts of the party. That feel like the rest of the party is moving away from them as actually moderates over the top power with the party as is evidenced by buy in winning. M but like culturally conservative moderates in the Democratic Party and there's still a lot of them. Am. Or socially liberal. Com. Moderates in the Republican Party you'd like suburban and edge more educated. Socially liberal voters in the GOP. Yet those are the groups I think given your right that you expected maybe be more open to. To a third party. Ryan but even if he saw more of that in those places. You still haven't seen much of it right so I don't know. Could've mosh make some crazy run in 20/20 sure I think we evolved in China and anything can happen. But it would be very very surprising based on the historical precedent. All right well where is Mike is very clear prediction quarter mom and pop segments. Don't leave it thank you may. Dealing. Thanks. And they might thank you. Barrett my name is Dillinger attorney chow is in the virtual control room you can get in touch right emailing us at podcast. Access flat thirty dot com you can also of course greeted us with questions or comments if your fan of the show leaders of rating or review in the apple podcast or port wholesome and about us thanks for listening and. And I.
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