Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Can Bloomberg Win?
Hello and welcome to the fight dirty politics podcast I'm Gayle and drew the Nevada caucuses are less than a week away. And Bernie Sanders has opened up a sizable lead over second place Joseph Biden according to Warren about a polling average. So is Sanders a locked in Nevada really dig into the dynamics of the race there. World's gonna talk about Michael Bloomberg said today Tuesday he qualified for the debate in Nevada leader of this week that'll be his first debate. He also officially overtook Biden for second place in our national polling average of auto of course just barely he's polling around 17% nationally. So is he real contender now for the nomination. Here we mean to you would dig into all of that our editor in chief and it's. Com well that's doing this. That's relatively slow day before things get really music than the experts also domestic departments article Harry M. I'm high pay and managing editor Micah Cohen. Who if you're watching this line. YouTube now has appeared so he's. Well now has a Fuller it appeared a bit quickly the beard suspiciously quickly grew. What's been what are we suspicious you're in here that plants. But longer I hear him play. Keep the bearded books. Three day weekend perfect ever beard implant. The day. The 56. Dollars a good thing but Phillips that they might get that fellas is the general finally got a bunch of subscribers letter of filler. I love you to. Oh. Seen idol artist it is literally. Anchored I've seen the cart that's like that. It's the defining characteristic of art like minister ram and reality TV's celebrity to everyone has apparently been seek. Amos has had a nose and some. I just encourage you to Google needs them. And he's clearly had to write a plastic in the next check it out I'm punitive. Are simple. Let's get accurate. We're going to use debt Q both Nevada and Bloomberg but let's kick things off with one of art Bieber questions. Good use of polling were backed use of poll so last week Ugoh of poll showed Sander is beating all of his democratic primary rivals. In a head to head match up. He be worn by two points but I didn't bite for and the rest of the field by double date it's the poll has been used to suggest that even if the more moderate parts of the party. Work to coalesce around a single candidate. Sanders would still likely win the nomination. So. Good use of polling or back use a poll. I'm up first I I have. Slightly ambivalent. Feelings about how this. Paul has been news. On the one hand as I wrote in the story that I could this morning we put this morning. There have been a lot of assertions that Bernie Sanders. Might have a ceiling when I think it's not necessarily. Clear. In the data. He has just about the best favorability ratings in the fielder off and tied with the other top candidates right. You know the notion of civilians in general if you look empirical he's a little bit dubious allies trump between sixteen. A CC I mean feelings exist I think gravity that is except that there. So on what had I think it's perfectly valid for people to be making this point that like. Actually Bernie could be just fine in a one on one match up and actually he's quite popular with the fairly broad array of Democrats with the exception people kind of over the age of sixty or thereabouts. The other hand it is one poll its a poll that kind of comes alike. The wants to I want America's and to grow further obviously it comes a time when Sanders polling pretty well all right some etc. you've beaten Joseph Biden Bayh. By two points or four points what does it head to head right and you're also beating Joseph Biden by. Eleven points this divided fields that would actually kind of suggest that. Actually Joseph Biden gains ground relative to you wince like it was sort accurate count so there are you know if you want to get into like. The day caveats in there are some caveats meal old old caveat is also like. It's only when poll there have been earlier today polls action. I'd Biden doing quite well as head to head matchups. But still I think it's like directional only right for word and her supporters that the going out of like hey this youngster might be it might be just. Fake. My curiosity about it is. I mean I think this primary season is going to be really interest him because. Just the nature of what states come and like that the idea that momentum could be really powerful to me this kind of says like. We could potentially say people have seen that seniors did really well the first couple of states. And as if we were called a lesson that we learn from 2016. Voters tend to elect a winner although sale like OC and it seems like he's doing well maybe I'll vote for him. But then there's so much stuff that's at peregrine have so many of these different inflection points in the next. It's like three weeks even right. You know we're seeing Michael Bloomberg in a debate tomorrow could that change things or will he completely full up you know like the as the head to head things with when to those that the New York Times pulling. That put Biden beating every you know all of his rivals and beating trump whatever that was that was back in a fall back in the fall. An hour in mid February. And it's you know a completely different Lansky so I'm I'm also and and we've got tons of contests vote actual voting happening. I'm again and again and again such an interesting pole but might in my eight gut instinct perhaps informed by 2016 is. Oh well maybe just the winner winner chicken dinners and. Yeah I mean and this is when thing that like just happens with all polling analysis in general. Which is that when a candy is doing well in the polls are doing poorly conversely right it's not hard to find lots of variants of the polls but children doing well in different subgroups in different states. And complementary measures like favorability ratings writing the questions like how. How durable. Is this now predictive as this and so you know to some extent like that's why I think we're kind of focus and toppling numbers but again like. You know this notion of Bernie having a ceiling it still seems like out there in the real world. Of non political. Expertly it's like people aren't quite woken up to the fact that like Sanders is a really good shot at winning the nomination. Well that to me is by ticket used the polling is. I don't think that that the poll was evidence. That Sanders is strong. Above and beyond the fact that Sanders leads in national primary polls with all the cabinet. So it doesn't like further strand to strand and Sanders in my view. But it is evidence that you should start from the place that. The person leading in national primary polls or the person leading a most polls is in the best position. And not and not do these psych mental gymnastics some of which were done in 2016. To be like well dispersants leading but this in this. And if you have one exception though which is I think the data plan between Sanders and Bloomberg. His interest income Philly Bloomberg does have very high name recognition now incentives by fifteen points in that matchup. Well but the question here though Mike of the reason people are kind of looking up this poll and saying that gives us different information than what the national polling tells us. Is because of the suggestion that Sanders is a factional candidate and if the more moderate parts of the party to coalesce around a single person. That that person in word you know likely be Sanders because while senators is leading he's only polling at 24% nationally. So do we think that this poll is enough to kind of you know Amy Klobuchar or people to judge we're the only candidate running against Sanders tomorrow they. So I guess my point is no I don't think that this poll proves that Sanders does not affect from a ten and then. But I don't think that's the right starting pulling the the rights are important should be. Assume no one's a factional candidate. And that you need a lot of evidence to prove that they are factional candidate right. So in other words to me this poll jibes with what we would expect of the person. Leaving national polls right now and having a really good moment as Claire said before the versions of these polls that we saw when Bachmann by Duma's. In front in national polls have Biden beating everybody right so it just kind of matches up with that and I I do think it it's evidence that. You should have to prove that someone is a fact file cabinet not partners not a department sent the starting assumption should be. Okay this that this person spot and is there. Unity. Indication. If we're looking for evidence summit try to prove Sanders is action can't there's no hard evidence there is ever I mean yeah closest. You know on the story this morning than you can act can actually find. 538 dot com also I don't dot com so here things that are in Akron for Sanders. Number one. In both Iowa New Hampshire he did not allow of the late deciding vote which might mean you can have your people and it turn out but you don't necessarily win undecideds. More real only for an Nevada seniors to not do very well in Iowa with people who have their second choice you know. Have mechanic viability usually 15%. In their precinct. He is bounces in national polls have not been enormous so we don't have it Tynan. New Hampshire post New Hampshire native and we're taping this on Tuesday morning so there are some signs like you know me what it's a spectrum like most things right. Do you I think that Sanders. Has an above average amount. I resistance. Probably. Does that necessarily matter. Well he's so he's far enough in his. Evidence position where maybe not it's probably not absolute resistance right and also like usually we have. A little bit of upward resistance you also have downward resistance which can be helpful means that if he eventually has a state where he under performs right. Like let's say that. I'm gonna happen Nevada and mullet let's say he loses Nevada to I don't know who can take your pick of any other candidates right. Toms to hire people to to treat me Klobuchar Joseph Biden or whomever Elizabeth Warren right. I think if people probably. Stick with them ran its it's weird state. And he's 11 half the first two states and its fine right as people we're very loyal like to Bernie when when he had a heart attack and win war and was searching. Like those are things that I think a lot of candidates would have indicted by an and is his. So high victims are a high floor on let's move on and talk about Nevada but. Archery categorized as you are ambivalent use of polling mica is good use of polling figures Claire. It's pretty is calling form informative testing. All right. That has been rated a good use of polling that you Uga so let's talk about the state of the race in Nevada but first today's podcast is brought to you by. But it. And. The Nevada caucuses are this coming Saturday and although we had basically known about a point for a while we do now have some new polls there. Our current average shares Sanders leading. At 26%. And Biden at 15%. Warren and booted judge 11% and inspire delivered and Klobuchar are not that far behind Morgan project. So clear according to Politico a number of campaigns have said that the competition is really for second place at this point Sanders has a lock on first and Nevada. Is that a fair characterization of the race in Nevada. I think it's still kind of remains to be seen. If you are a longtime listener this podcasts you'll know that we are. Skeptical about Nevada polling somewhat so I think. And were a little bit at our I want speak for the rest of the panelists. I informing them that country and I'm a little hazy about what exactly. Is up at what's down in Nevada I certainly think Sanders is a strong candidate and his campaign has been pouring a lot of resources into the Latino community. The big pick up is the culinary union which will quite a bit of power in Nevada because Nevada is a caucus state and because. Unlike islet know when in about it really knows that there's a caucus going on and so that the people that the culinary union turns out in an organized fashion to vote. On caucus day Kerr that's important that's important bloc of voters. The culinary union has been putting out material that's in there he. Am anti Medicare for all basically. Is basically like an anti dirty C Anderson without explicitly saying don't vote for Bernie Sanders. So I'm curious about how battled battled help things. Yeah I mean I think that's that's basically what I'd say it's it's like it's a really interesting. Kind of you know it's some it's an old school dynamic of the smoke filled rooms except. You know Boller in than casino you know. Where a very powerful. Political bloc wield a lot of power and an important state so I'm really interested to see how that shakes out. Yeah first of all. Were in general 538 skeptical of walks anywhere at any time right. And that's not really the best way to think about elections. But the idea that anybody is a lock. In Nevada which has callers has that polling historically. In a caucus in that primary is is simply. And article that. That framed it this way which was based entirely on what rival campaigns. Were telling the reporter trying to lower at. Exactly why are you kidding this is it this is actually happen. At sidebar and media criticism. This is I've had conversations with friends in the past week a couple of stories about amok in name any names explicitly but like. Stories com how were you to slight. You've just talked to like. Campaign operatives who obviously have. That's added motivation. You haven't let indicated anywhere that you know that that's the motivation. Like I know it's China that's. Some of political journalism by Jesus Christ like. Little digging here people. I'm on a more like Nevada that this thing the thing interesting about. Culinary unions in TC Anders into Medicare prop it is. Actions hugs at these two. Strings with in the support word you know the persona of Bernie Sanders. As he's actually equally he he's he's quite appealing to a unions or union woman he's appealing that union mentality. Front of the working man. Down of the billionaires that stuff. But on the other hand there's the stream in unions that is extremely establishment extremely. Democratic Party street narrow. I am. And so I can kind of see you know almost culturally. C Anders really appealing to union people because he has that kind of dynamic but on the other hand. Eat your tugging it will be rational for high and who also has that Akron. Or collaborative. I actually find kind of this. Really. Specific to see Enders interesting dilemma for people writes in her supporters. That's why adamantly curious about what and out come will be. When we saw that even 12016 general right that seem contrast where of course Hillary Clinton is running. In the on the democratic party's ticket and historically unions support Democrats. But culturally. Trump ended up being a good fit for. Any of union households in the upper midwest to hundreds. No I that's right and and sorry it's this is jumping Reinemund but just to complete that thought about Ike. Why Sanders is not a lock in Nevada be on the polls there be on the general. Difficulty appalling caucuses. Is you know the color the culinary union thing it's not incidental right you have that most powerful. Sort of political machine there. They haven't endorsed an embedded but there clearly working like. At cross purposes with Sanders right. Our model has Sanders I think that's at human victory with a two in three chance of winning. Nevada that seems about right to me you know that that he's he's a modest favorite but one at three times you know somebody else wins there well. Where is true losers no clear exactly number two at Munich think it is. Probably Biden. Like the polls are all over the place right. C at a popular from WP intelligence and sinners up 201525. To eighteen over Biden. You pull from data for progress. Which is a liberal organization but it could polling in Iowa and New Hampshire ahead Sanders a much larger 35. Percent. War Andrew detection Biden all about fifteen. You have people from something called point blank political it is not a permit heard of it's a tiny sample. It had town's fire first. Amy Klobuchar second and Sanders tied for fourth I don't know if I believe that poll. I think you have a Tom's dire internal poll that shows surprisingly Tom Steiner in a strong third with 18%. But in nineteen Bernie Sanders a 24 and you have also I think a telemundo pulled. A Latino voters it showed. They're big disputes over how dominant Bernie is among Hispanic voters and so it's kind of a big mess. Became more importantly. There is a debate. Taking place tomorrow. And be right back care products Wednesday night it. It's maybe gonna be overshadowed by the Bloomberg. Ads debut and innovate. But like a girl meet. But let's not forget by the way that's a joke about his time as mayor and park it. It's a Twitter account that he at. Big is your city I think he would speak in Spanish often and in Portland accent it's fat. In you know. Especially around centuries and reviewers trying to alert the community about emergencies and things like I think during hurricane Sandia became kind of a bit of a ballooned Ito is. Anywhere but. Like in New Hampshire we have a recent example the debate nattering and restating. Klobuchar improbably good as a salute to and Bernie in really hurting Biden and more and and you know me the question is like if Bernie is that 35%. Like Medina for progress poll. That's he's gonna we right. Probably. In all probability. If he's at forty articulate really strongly and any chronic couch. Like that woman picking conviction order if ticket yet to come Richard girl. Definitely not alone. That's my reaction the entire primary predicament. If you hit free 5% like in the WPA intelligence poll. 24% in the fire pole then something correction right and so that's that's the key is he like. So we. Mentioned a couple times that. Polling in Nevada is tricky. We haven't had exactly quietly pulling any caucus it's hard because of second choices and turn out as Los you're not always sure who's actually gonna turn out and in a primary and general. People are more. Bible to switch candidates because Carol Democrats anyways are easy to switch back and forth we've established that in the past why specifically is it difficult to poll about. It's hard to poll. Nevada. Nevada Nevada. We've actually gotten. Comments we villains that options. Although to be fair the state is named after that Sierra Nevada us. Which it's pronounce Nevada. You know people personal things that. You you know this city in. New Hampshire named pat spelled BER ally and I think it's. Per day stay at Borland has also like Wisconsin and apron to borrow right because it's not like it's not there to pronunciation to the local to decide how they went our guys find it matters Nevada you win him line developed in house into the next. That it. I you know that pull name mentioned in that that's currently it's from point blank political. Which like me I don't ever heard of before. The morning here there slogans. Point blank political among the top political consulting firm. If it. That it sounds pretty much it. When was incorporated among always incorporate it in January 20 money question in the question here why did we include those poll. In our averages if we don't you can tout that it's it's it's I think your marketers are resuming its users of its back. Presenting its ferret out but so too the original question might get. Well I doubt well I guess I just on the an asset write him five dollars. I'm working in today. And in incitement. I'm Oca. It is hard to poll the stage. Speak is there are our a lot of people who caucuses don't speak English com. Polling. Conducting polling and Spanish cost more money. A lot of these polling firms a lot of the music media outlets doing and it's transient city arts are strapped for cash. It's a very transient see people moving in and now within move in with in the state. It's I think it's a relatively young state. It's it's I'm the Hispanic population is relatively young but not overall I just actual purpose they're out they're median age. When it comes so that every country that group is hard to reach not only because that are. Many of them speak only Spanish but also because they're really young young people in general are are harder Paul. And you have. Early voting this year we first time which I think should be struck out alive and makes it kind of like. Almost like this primary grafted onto a caucus and in the caucus you. Real locations you can begin if you don't get 50% in your precinct and yet it is second choice. However. The early ballots also have ranked choice voting which is currently version of that process and actually not quite sure that'll. Like it's a grass onto another. You have also some precincts that are very large literally in. The basements or the ballrooms of casinos where you might have actual. Union. Pressure kind of I don't mean to accuse anyone and anything right the like but you know. It's maybe. It's not a private ballot and that's probably more relevant even in Nevada than it is in Iowa and so. So at the same time like look. Demographically. You would think that wireless lines are pretty well for Bernie Sanders he clearly. Has some strength among. Hispanic youths. This kind do. Working class. Demographic it's like. Kind of you know working working class not like kind of lower class like working class like in the white working class jobs and and I feels very good for Sanders. It's a big union state. He chemicals that are out west then. Out east it's a caucus just everything would seem like it lines are pretty well for for. For Sanders he write that if you like. Are just looking at the polls and able to agree and be able to meet margin a mere to the polls might not make the Mac night might not make you confident any outcome. But if you default and action you know cast some shade at this reporting. Which other camps while lower expectations and state where expectations are always weird right. But based on your Pryor's demographically you would think that Sanders leads nationally and this is an above average state for him and it's done obviously strong state for any other candidate. A random question about caucuses to anti democratic on some level because of the lack of the private pilot. For sure and are more anti democratic because of the way that day like exclude people who work at nine people were handicapped or can't make thank. You can also just happened two hours of time to and I just because the early voting part of the Nevada caucuses kind of an interesting like weird innovation her caucus system. I don't know exactly how works. I multi count what Asia is. They assign your early vote to a precinct right and it just add that to Vitale on caucus but you can actually move your vote if you'd right right. So. Just mean. Distracting question but geez these these caucuses like Oklahoma Mike Cassel faced this tube to a lesser degree should these exist. But that. But that's the point and it's hard to imagine that not getting stirred up the adding that early ballots. And they also just changed how they're telling all of this they switched to a Google spreadsheet instead of the apps that they used in Iowa. And there have been reports from people who've gotten training on this Google spreadsheet that there're precinct captains and it sorry that there are. People you know we're going to be telling us that presents who don't even faster and use any. Let's got a point right is there are our view we're just looking at this polling average and you know office. You would say Sanders is a modest. But but this is still. You know it nothing is locked up here right. Once you add in all that specific. Okay there try and all the stuff for the first time early voting today and it changed their process at the last minute after Iowa. Mess right now. Bears Nevada's hearts they fault of the gambit that and the idea that you know the political parties calling. Unit describing the race that's like. You know Sanders has first and up now it's just the race for second third. It's so weird instantly and it's it's nobody should be shocked. It would be a mild surprise if somebody else won Nevada besides others. It would be shocking buying slighted part of a shock we're trustees since there's no clear Sackett it would be right away how to consolidate the vote so around that and I think that's totally right. And and me correct me from under I'm not sure like apparently things actually behave this way but the way I look at it is. The fact that there's no clear sack and please Canada right now both makes it more likely. That Sanders will win because there's the chance nobody breaks out. They also makes it less likely in the sense that this of let's kind of what was going on in New Hampshire rate that we talked about on the podcast where. At all these candidates -- in warrant Klobuchar. Who are hanging around like load double digits right 101112%. And a lot of voters. Go in a primary caucus and say. I wanna waste my vote on someone who might not even qualify for delegates via let alone does have a chance to win so it's just these is why primaries are so fluid you could see all of these. You know you see warrant supporters at the last minute though. Screw this you know let's flocked to Sanders or ordered with the judge well. So so if we're talking about the lack of clarity in. Who's leading secondly on the block an effort to document the weight that the media is filling in the vacuum seat political article about it's a race for second place. Here are headlines on the New York Times politics section. Today I want about child we have Michael Bloomberg leans left with plan to rein in Wall Street on politics Bloomberg's candidate. Summit that the course months Michael Bloomberg surges in Poland qualifies for Democrat debates about ward in the spotlight lamb reality when. Bloomberg campaign opens first attack a Democrat rival Bernie Sanders amendment temple Bob. Like there's a lot of Bloomberg stuff in there and it's this it's all this up Bloomberg under the micro so well liked it's it's very much to meet there there is this when there's a lack of clarity that who's there it's like. At conflict. What's the next thing it's Michael Bloomberg. But this is why the lack of a clear at second place. Person might help standards because maybe the media is trying to say it's Bloomberg but Bloomberg on the ballot in the bottom right now. It's so it's all it's all light posts. It is about and keep it. In any case it's a real help to Sanders. In Nevada that the person getting the media bump right now isn't on the ballot in Nevada so it's up or south or South Carolina so it's like. You know you could imagine a alternate universe where. Klobuchar is really getting all this Bloomberg attention right and then she's you know she's not perfect fit and about a but like. She's at least on the ballot that's kind that yeah. I should like he is not he basically has. And he is like two weeks until he's actually on he is on Super Tuesday. Ballots so on March 3 people will be able to vote for Mike Bloomberg but. Does say it again. It's February teen knows it's gonna happen. It like Joseph Biden's weird collapse in public. Knicks really does make remembered currently look very precious or we're all just buying into the hype but the editor. Are possible. Are as I mentioned earlier Bloomberg will be on the democratic primary debate stage for the first time on Wednesday Yeltsin just barely overtook Biden for second place and our national polling average he's at sixteen point 5% and Biden is 64%. They are tied for all intents and services. We haven't had a big Bloomberg segment yet so let's talk of this is that there's is that. Nate where is Bloomberg's support coming. It's coming from people who are. Authentically quite moderate that's when group right it's coming from. People who. I think are looking for an alternative to that. Total left wing of the party and may be Wheeler. Where into Joseph Biden before an Aires in Bloomberg kind of as a way to park their vote instead. And I probably some that is truly just kind of naymick mission driven based on his unprecedented. And spending settings kind of a mix of like. Fairly sincere support. Of people who were excited by his rise in the polls and the people who were who were voting for him because of never commissioned a may or may not turn out to vote. I have to say I. Have been genuinely surprised by Bloomberg's. Polls aren't in Nazi that's coming. Isn't the result of a bunch of money being spent quickly what are you talking around. He is I mean it is like I think deaths heat on the art I think he's on I think we can't underestimate. How much she's on the airwaves in certain states. And like you know. I'll I watch the super collapse and the Super Bowl. The whole thing that good. He's not in them which is maybe. Ultimately you know I think I think this is like. Halfway to being met obviously it's nice to be running as many as an it is truly ubiquitous where you know was. After NB Elster game in Chicago this weekend and like taken a cab back and my techsters listen like it been a predominately black radio station is had with Bloomberg about like how. How he's been great for the after American community writing that's gonna going uncontested on that station but. The pattern of Bloomberg's rise in the polling does not fit a slow burn from. Advertising right he goes from kinda 4%. To 9% before Iowa and then after our Lagos from nine to seventeen wallets that is a sudden. Earned media driven surge. And as you play out Clair like. He is the dominant topic of conversation. In the political press right now even though you've had other candidates who had unum namely. Burning in routes which most prominently who have had very good results so far right. It's like he's replaced the peace replace Biden in front runners are. Obvious and you. Right probably well right and we should we should talk about that but. Let me just push back on me development name I totally agree that. He boot Bloomberg has seemed to benefit very clearly. From opposed Iowa surge in media coverage. No doubt in large part because of Biden's disappointing finish in Iowa New Hampshire which I think sort of set the narrative table. It first for an immediate focus on another quote moderate length and it. But Bloomberg even before then. I think had a pretty steady rise. From whatever vote you know 23. Eat before. I realize yet climbed into the high single digits so there's more steady rise but even more than that I think the money is important. T get the media. To pay attention right to get the media to take him I think that if it denies too much agency that fact that like. Again. Like people are completely forgotten about his territory have done better than Bloomberg right. And make I think he's I think OK here's what it is in mind he is spending. An insane amount of money we should stipulate that and it's not get it and give credit he's like yeah I'm looking at a political peace it's talking about how. The amount of money and the widespread. Existence of Bloomberg ads has completely changed like the marketplace some local TV stations for adds that's not be. But of course the national media largely based in New York City who like knows Mike Bloomberg. I'm you know as you know first I must all of us here at the stable. Who live in New York City. Yeah he's a former mayor he's this big figure he always kind of flirts with running for president he sticky you know every town. Third gun safety has become kind of the big democratic. I mean technically democratic but you know it's it's a gun control. Philanthropy that's become a pretty big. Media actor he spent a ton of money in the twenty team mid term I mean I think. There's a lot of public media being primed because Bloomberg always there in the background whereas you know somewhat like Tom star's habitable again. No offense time like a real little bit of Iran don't write. Who people find. Like inoffensive but Bloomberg has this sustained. I've got a lot of money pledged Imus bandit. And here hear it is all of a sudden. Any place ended. Both kind of classic media bias c.s which has won the kind of provincial wasn't around new York and two is like. Probably if you survey the average if you took a weighted average of the average person producing news. Their political views would come out very close to Bloomberg probably closer than any other candidate I endorsed. Him dumber are ABC news. Colleague I guess. Former Sam Donaldson former east so for all of. That are right you're saying that he pleased in two meaty the media's weakness and is horror. Predilections or whenever when you book in the cross tabs of these polls are looking out a Marist poll which has highly rated according to 530. And it -- Bloomberg coming at second the places where he's performing well for example performs well with rules orders of course he's leading with moderate voters specifically. Also performs pretty well with African American birders he's in third banner you know keep performs well with. Older voters with white non college graduates so this is not used for so we are easier farming oil people who authority. OK but I else think that is that what that it would seem to argue that all those advertisements. And some also think lord that the immediate I mean the fact it. The Biden vote. Is going to Bloomberg considered to be literature Klobuchar it's weird. It's actually not that weird because the entire neared its surrounding. Let's take the Egypt first the entire neared its stranding but he did it is. No black support right and that immediately now he is his chances off the cliff after New Hampshire so I think. People who consume media say okay this pattern and it's have a chance Klobuchar. Still has a name recognition. Frankly and might even though she you know I've heard this I think this is from an computers. Some in the speak and he said that someone on an MP action described. Klobuchar as before the New Hampshire primary as Brussels sprouts. And now she's Brussels sprouts with bacon. Which he can kind of an amazing description. Whoever's that a good job like you know people like where is Bloomberg is. He's also frankly getting a lot of attention for caught you know firm Patton. Eating trial right which people which Democrat voters. Loved it I mean did you like it if if if the entire democratic contest is essentially. This if you step act like this insane thing about like who do well with trump on the general election debate stage like who will do well on four nights of prime time TV. Like you know well who will mop the floor with trump. Bloomberg being like will we measured. We measure hike from the neck up where I come let people who burned so there is some of that kind of like. People pick up on the UK. Let indeed maybe Amy Klobuchar would maybe keep the aged and Mike. It. Yeah I mean I do I so I wanna combatants to write what I've described as somewhat. Bloomberg taking behind bars rule voters not college educated white voters. You know ranking third now behind Barton and Sanders with African American voters older voters. Is it really just TV or is there something about his policies his message at Sadr that is attracting a certain type of voter. There in the processor to do its right now kind of by his commercials is not done I think a lot of policy work percent in the campaign. And there has track record which is actually quite. Quite conservative right relative to democratic primary electorate. You know I mean I guess it's really gotten into this and it's kind of like me Mina the most for an issue right now uses this media and advertising driven surge but like. But you know he would be. Unusually centrist. For word. A nominee in either party. And people kind of into it. We might say there's evidence for this. To some degree that like if you're more moderate than you tend to do better in it and pulling U vs trump. He's just kind of like mine melded them people and taking notes I must resilient and strong and when county Cecil is so clear from. From the polling data I mean. He it is. Not someone who screams electability right he's not some twang he. You know. You're looking 52 year old center from a Democrat has won a state election rubbish you guys John Edwards and it's in the about comparison now. Ers Steve Bullock period Klobuchar who is kind of track record right. You know he. Is someone who. Might have trouble. Gaining support from African Americans and inspector general election I mean if you talk via Africans Americans and Hispanics in New York City be. We have very mixed impressions probably leaning a between the negative side effort. For Bloomberg nominee someone who like. You may even see. Like the probe Bernie people. On Twitter who OK let's be honest our art not Ebbers to like you know being pugnacious right even to the people saying. We're not bluffing this time. You're right that we against rejection by whatever else but Bloomberg is really average to our forests and I think there's some. Truth to that maybe I mean Elizabeth Warren supports two. Arms so they're kind of like self aware leasing like. We know that we lost credibility on this but just trusting that Bloomberg is like a yet. I think some of the reasons why it's heart to gauge house is on the plan are twofold one I think part of part of Bloomberg's appeal is kind of what was at the heart of Biden's appeal with. White voter white moderates with black voters was that he was he's appealing to. PC. Sent it right Michael bloom Michael Bloomberg has a long history. Of saying let's let's just take elect he tells like bawdy jokes right sexes Gypsy says he's he's accused of saying some progress that it things. People. Might be like cool this guy is like not years he's just like he's just talking like how people talk about the stuff like whatever we'll they'll give my Mulligan on some of the worst blah blah blah. I kind of had appealed to these people said well he'll he'll talk to trot voters. About race and meet to stuff in a way that like that isn't lecturing and it's kind of meeting where they are. The public Bloomberg is once you start talking about stop and frisk you could run into with black voters people being like yikes that was pretty bad wasn't it. And you you Michael Bloomberg were pretty recently still. Defending stop and frisk entered our effort right so it's like maybe he picks up. Black support you know by being like okay I am a kind of white candidate who like in the general election trump voters. Well actually like kind of be tricky acting and remember this guys put down their for making me quote unquote electable. Or people will be like hell now stop and frisk is really damaging an and I can't let actually can't Howell. Which way it's gonna pan out once people actually it's now he has been in a debate stage yet you'll be and a debate stage my night. He is not actually lake. Isn't talked that much in his commercial mean he does that's not an Alec I'm not sure how much people actually. Know Mike Bloomberg. No I'm not sure they do at all. I mean to to not to put too fine a plan by. This entire Bloomberg so her urge is media created. Earned media paid media whenever right there hasn't actually been. This is like the one redeeming quality. Iowa and after Wright is like the retail politics part. Not only had Bloomberg not done that hasn't been debate. That's clips that even as commercials he they don't actually feature him all that much it's sort of like. Look I think we learned in 2016. We further learned that. In modern a lot fans. It's the packaging that matters it doesn't matter so much what's. Inside the packed right trumpet flip this way and I and every single issue tournament with it was about the package. How far implement the Bloomberg campaign get on I'm really dude well paid for packaging. You know I'm there's a chance pretty far I think for what it's worth also there's also a chance that. We look back at this as. You know spike and vote what is it called well so bust cycle so I could happen to. Yes let's talk. About like from. From a kind of model almost point of view we had model talk right but think about like word of things that makes Bloomberg. A new Jules. And I guess the most obvious one is the money but be second when he is like starting late and not competing in these first four states and often not competing is a euphemism for work. I'm gonna lose these states so their forward. They're from a pretend they were important and bloomers case it was a bit more ambivalent he was like not literally on the ballot. Between the first four Iowa has developers say sex or briefly few Bloomberg voters' right. But kind of at the idiots like these the way these two things intersect. Ordinarily. You have to compete. In the first four states McCain is that as a way that you get media attention and become viable in matters states right he clearly like. Seems not to have needed that you know the same time. One wonders if things have been slightly. Different where if let's say that Nevada had declared key bridge which the winner. I'm Iowa had declared to be just the winner on election night right and then that small additional boost he gets makes him win. New Hampshire right and the story Mac BA's booed each it's displacing Biden. As the moderate alternative and then I had an out right. Bloomberg right I'd get as much coverage has also been kind of a nice coincidence of events but but I don't know I mean look. I don't have like I don't want to like. Put too much weight on the skeptical berm Bloomberg sigh we are to put a lot of that lately speak personally kind of early in the race and clearly like. He has found a way to become a serious contender. For the nomination. On the other hand there is something about like the fact that he has not actually when. Any votes yet except for a few brightens in New Hampshire and a small temple and Iowa. And like. We don't know right there a lot of people who say Bloomberg's my top choice but actually haven't decided yet where is like Sanders support for example is more. Is more solid and so I get figures like it could be ephemeral. And but like I think the comparison it is right we often see when candidates first enter the race. There is a infect more often than not right there is a surge of media attention. And they climb in the polls and and they fall right. Or maybe when the first kind of new and it's weird like you know I think actually. Up until spring discreet partly Monica right up until like. Pre Iowa I think it was kind of a case for mild skepticism about Bloomberg. About like okay you climb from 4% to 9%. You get to 9% now you can have a month's worth of coverage devoted to like if the forecast contractually four seats that actually have. If there Oden and clear yet and advocates to hire private waste tires and doing all that well we'll see how well it doesn't matter of South Carolina right so as far as its debate. It totally program capsules that are the result and it's people are very smarmy you know people like OK we'll cut people are. Compass good instincts he understands and your media I tell you what the Bloomberg people really do you understand. Really do you understand Linear media there are part of it right in the kind of speaking to like their peers and they are very and every get there and they deserve. A lot of credit for getting it if he. This terribly tomorrow to me now claims out number people he can quote in this deserving lot of credit for kind of seeing this path and getting this far so. That's kind of describing maybe where. He over performed where re kind of under rated his chances looking. In the past just kind of wrapping things up. With Bloomberg. Right now the model gives him an 8% chance of winning that stole the winning now and in the dark arts art these days are pretty different years. Right now the model gives Robert an 8% chance of winning the majority of delegates. In the democratic primary in at 16% gently giving sentence morality seventeen actually. There's a big gap and has raised in the majority the plurality so that's still a smaller chance than Biden according to model of winning a majority. Do you think that in this moment the model is still under rating it's chances or has caught up to. You know where it should be. I don't. Think there's any particular reason to think that now that the models moderating his chances. If you were to account for more subjective factors in you might say okay. What happens and actually get scrutiny now. From the press these debates could be a liability form of dollars and a California them by the way the model actually does give Bloomberg some credit for number one. The fact that he has this money. And number two the fact he's got a lot of endorsements right so it takes us prior and he has not much affect frankly about like and actually thinks of him as being like. Maybe the strongest kind of an out of its of the fundamentals so called right now stronger than Sanders so so he's third right now endorsement. By an end warrants thirdly if you look it's of the mile uses another way that the money time and time weighted endorsements writes it looks like who've gotten endorsements from recently that metric Biden has almost. Fallen tune into a tie with whom are based on recent endorsements so so not you know there are some of symbolic center recently era for Bloomberg but like. But let. The reason why Biden is priced little bit higher in the model is there is still a chance. Be real chance politics and get happenstance. That Biden wins. South Carolina that South Carolina gets a mean media boost heading into Super Tuesday. People have sold so short on bite them like even like a four point when it's a lot of might might. You portrayed as being Bea come back right he's also second on average in an apple sleaze like actually not. When he's still. Tied for second now at Bloomberg in national polls like Biden has held up a relative relatively well given how poorly he did an island New Hampshire. Tonight there are some breaking news yet. ABC news has learned that president trump is expected to commute this. This sentence of former Illinois governor Rod Blagojevich. Him apple senior level source. I president bigger breaking news Monica at that would stimulate. The alliances. Enable. The senate seat line via. And I think given all away and this is via as Michael and tickets aren't. To wrap things up on Bloomberg and and that's podcast. And. Clara and mica do you. Agree disagree that's 8% seem like. Where you expect Bloomberg's chances of winning a majority of delegates to. And have a right to me yeah I don't I was just when the endorsement thing with went sat and going back booking it. The endorsements that have been made I mean. It's astounding number of the durst considered picked up lately some former collects some Congressional Black Caucus former Connolly Harris endorsing people in. Like Bobby Rush you know. Like it's not it's not nothing to me he's kind of like taking the it's. Embarrassment. Them. On again on a little. He has days according to the model 70% chance of winning the most delegates winning a plurality so like. The models actually relatively high on them. I think I would. You know if if like I think Bloomberg could pull this thing off where he has. Sold to voters. As. As. You know for all customs purposes by him like. And a safe moderate electable. Alternative. Is Bloomberg actually act. Can it be like in substance. I don't really think so like you know this is someone who tried to ban peaks students. I think. The country overall would have a problem with Canada like that. He could upset like different. Factions of people in different ways it would also leaves them in different ways to its. It would be into some of my point is maybe none of that matters now is just like. Do you run a campaign that has clear messaging and and that messaging doesn't have to connect to read it's it's like America it's like America's birthday. And they've gone to Baskin Robbins and trying all the flavors. It's just one yet knows exactly. Things like actually if I had a bat right now. I think I'd bet on a boom and bust cycle for Bloomberg wary ghettos attention and get the campaigns are signaling that date they're like gonna go after him yeah let's do it people if yet what well be bats and what we've back here tomorrow night. And will be able to assess his performance at that point. That I don't think he's gonna do well in the debate. RA my step up five dollars. Money but hopefully you're just saying that's that you could use that word and if he does well craft more wells. Nobody hold me accountable. And that's sneak Larranaga you know it's like what they think matters I Condace on Eric. Let's leave it there thank you name. Thank you game they declared I've got this thing and it's golden I'm not just giving it up for. The grade credit what credit. Rod Blagojevich in reference to Barack Obama's senate's. All right and thank you Micah. My name is Gail injury Tony Trout is in the control room you can get in touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com you can also of course treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show leaders are reading a review in the apple podcasts to work or tell someone about a thanks for listening and her. Or.
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