FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Can economic data predict elections?

After the release of historically bad GDP data, the crew discusses how well economic data can predict the outcome of an election.
53:12 | 08/03/20

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Can economic data predict elections?
Hello and welcome to the fire authority politics podcast I'm dealing. New economic data last week showed the largest ever quarterly contraction of the American economy. In the second quarter the economy shrunk by an annualized thirty reports are. Now we've all heard the whereas on that when it comes to elections quote it's the economy stupid. And there are forecast models that try to predict elections these two largely or solely on the economy. But in an environment like the one were in how much concurrent GDP Dieter really tell us. Also as we discussed last week with congressman will hurt president trump has suggested delaying the election because of it and act while he can't meet practice. It for there's a theme of the president trying to cast doubt on the results of the election. For months he's based loosely talked about massive fraud related to mail voting and said that this will be quote the most corrupt election after. So what are the consequences of the president's behavior and how and client are Americans to believe that. He repeated discuss our editor in chief Nate Silver Haney has gone. Hank Aaron how's it going with you. And while I'm house up model coming along. I mean it's pretty much done. So I have the knowledge of what it says I'm Tony radio. Rude. The suspense also here in us. Easier politics record do you need parent it's you. You terror and politics editors are frost and sent his Sarah EU. And Claire is out. Let's talk about the economy and ask a variation. On our favorite question so good use of modeling or at use of mark. There's a segment of the election forecasting world that puts most of its emphasis on the so called fundamentals which is to say the economy and other fundamental metrics of American life. As opposed to the polls those models got some attention last cycle for predicting a close election between Clinton and the and so would this new economic data that we let's talk about how much the economy alone can tell us who will be. So knee. I know that you cop writes about this type of modeling but I just want to ask you up front if you plugged negative 33% annual GDP growth in to a fundamentals model. What would it tell you about how this fall's election would tar. Well. Here as a product that's a much Molly you're talking about right if you use the Alan Abramowitz. Com time for change model I think it is right. Which he's a second quarter GDP but just a number we got post approval ratings in a term for incumbency. It predicts trump. To lose the popular better. By around 35 points. And because the models very competent. It says the ranch and heavy almost for sure some cream like you know forty and 33 right there's no chance they'll only lose popular by ten points. For example literally impossible accordance model. You know when you have a ballot system like that that's a sign of models that would decide. But let's seek have a different while some models for example use third quarter GD piece of faulty you know the post election. That's expected to rebound in May be. Plus seven or plus 8%. Bomb that would predicted trump big win right some models use. Disposable income because of the cares bill actually Americans for the time being have more money in their pocket that he used. Second courted social and can you predict a trump landslide victory so part of the problem is that. There are a lot of ways to make an economy we don't have a very large sample a previous elections. And so. The models violently disagree with one another about what they actually. Now. People who make those models will go in and change those models which can and it's the question like is this even like. Even pretending to be objective science at this point forces can reflecting people's subjective writers write these models are basically. They're basically all right. This club fairness they've bet you're judgment is bad use of modeling. But and I asked before removed product aggregate economy more broadly. From the perspective. Of people who act this kind of modeling. Why do it what's the point in focusing more on the fundamentals then actual election. Because they want to stand strong tickled they want to pretend like there is some from their person I've heard enough from your respect. Because they are board and mr. the American elections. And you'd like to be Caracol right in the fact that we only have like twelve elections with reliable polling data. You know sixteen elections reliable economic data just keep Italy around what progression says the agency finds you think. Is persuasive I mean it's like at science I'm not being. Empathetic here because like I've been railing against these models. For years and years is actually a moment for me where like. Back in 2011 and twelve a lot of it about economy and a mediocre what's it mean for president Obama's. Re election chances against Romney rights to spent like months and months looking at these things. And it was a real eye opening moment for me that how badly he's models that based on past that claim to be incredibly precise predictive. How they completely failed in many cases when applied to new data that wasn't known. To them bottler at the time. And in fact these models literally get worse. On real data. A real unknown election's actual prediction. Cute just predicting 5050. So you know. There is a term called over tuning which means that when you have a lot of different ways to look at passed in you can. Look at hundred different hypotheses. Right he could pick whichever one as the party's does the best. You gonna kind of wind up with a model that by chance alone happened to work on costing about one actually applied very well. Going forward. Keep acting as a related term apparently not it too technical here. But like it literally. It literally is bad science. It literally is bad science right and the performed a record for reform and it's used them to orbit to welfare rate the performance records models on real data. Is not very good. Now what I think there are better ways and economic models like the notion that like he can somehow. Pinpoint. How voters feel about this economy endowment. And therefore be extremely confident about the result based on the economy alone I mean it doesn't really add up. In part because like also. I I'm I'm I'm spewing out all the arguments here you what you should you know. Let other analysts weigh in ominously of a pullback. Like yeah. RA so Perry and Sarah. When it comes to the as I imagine ninety's sort of wisdom of presidential politics and that it's all about the economy. Who won its business kind of extrapolating from this modeling question to what extent should we bite into how much do you. Does the economy actually eats right wins the auction. One penis. Me in recent action slicks and many other things the economy is increasingly popular. Political science now chilling scenes like. Consumer sentiment which used to mean people with the economy. Isn't good indicator. Precedents no longer seems business. And something that Michael Kessler wrote press recently this released it to me lives. You know here we are in the middle of a recession. Worse than 2000 knee yeah if you looked at polls in Sydney both Democrats and Republicans. And in fact McCain. He got me attacked for saying you know the fundamentals of our economy are strong people note we're in recession. Where is now if you look at the polls in this humorous with Lee gene. Between Democrats and Republicans on how economies. Is the widest it's hurt Republicans think it. Democrats think it's back. With soccer center. It's gotten worse under so it makes me question to some extent if your partisan islands is strong girl. I don't know how much the economy really in you box. Can act hostile question back unique and I am curious like wind you know whatever Clinton advisor in ninety cities the economy stupid. Where they write even the end it was the economy more a factor in the eighties and NYNEX originally don't know. No look okay what. What I learned to teams like the precision. With which these models claim. To be of a predict elections right. If you have to choose between. I thought this number one economy completely determines elections right never applicant poll in about December 2. That economy has to do with it right. Number two was actually closer to correct. Statistically. If you model is properly. You know in our estimate economy explains from our model is avoids most of these problems at all. We think economies was about 30% of periods incumbent performance right thumb suffered a percent as a lot right if you can explain 30%. How well the incumbent party is placed an economy can tell you. Quite a bit. But it's also a long way from a 100% in at least plenty of room for candidates and campaigns and and worse and academics and things like that matter now they're separate question of like. Com. Oh. Couples are questions question number wine as like. In which period as a relatively more. Or less predictive right I mean has been true that like in kind of audit. 70s8090s. Right in that period. The economy was fairly predicted earnings models one recent quite skeptical these models because. Doesn't territories it used in the analysis where. You had a really small sample size right then. You want to experiments indicate let's just become like in 190 forward secret compartment and then we critics are now expected. 1880 more than doubled sample size but the other. Other questions like. Can a normal economic. Indicator. Be applied in a pandemic like this one right. I'm like you matching Galen we have the worst quarterly GDP numbers. In history. But the United States I believe. However if you look at. How voters feel about president trumps Hanley an economy in polls. He actually is even money. Look opponents average of his economic job ratings 48%. Approved. 48 point 0% disapproved is actually technically in positive territory. On the economy. Which suggest that somehow that GDP figure out and it captured. How the public into the economy in another reception. What reason why is that the government. Until recently a lot of money people's pockets. We talked about domestic income before. Received a disposable income. You know there hasn't been an inflation which happens and some economic crises. The stock market has been pretty steady. Housing prices that's actually a little bit unclear right but like you know Tom. People I think also understand that life. Okay currently have done everything wrong. In the pandemic it's very importantly for its response. Of Coke and that's one reason why he's favorite salutes. However. I don't know necessarily blame the economy. On truck particularly when the economy on coping. So it's like. I don't know the fact that like the fact that you have to act it. If you take some of these formulas like the Roberts formula. And applied to the real data comes up with ridiculous answers. It's kinda proves how ridiculous. I mean this exercise it is in the in the first place. So let's move on from those fundamentals based forecast models because you have disposed of them thoroughly. But you know when it comes to how Americans are thinking about. Whether they wanted give trump a second term or not. Is the economy. Eight the key factor for voters or does the pandemic top absolutely everything I mean we've already seen that voters have sat they would rather use restrictions. To help you know tamp down on the spread of coal bed. If even if it will damage the economy so like is this an election where the economy is just gonna take a backseat curious. Well similar response icann's. The American national elections obviously they ask voters each election what the most important she is facing. Rape and the economy since Italy has. Green and it it was more important to more voters. Eight that it wasn't 2016. And what we've seen in. Holes that are being conducted now we Iranians of course is only in the lead to the election. Is that more Americans are saying I am concerned about health care which is related to this pandemic they ask the current or specifically. For a few weeks ago was the protests right at top of mind. For a lot of voters I do think that the economy. Cookie and sneak listening earlier to greatly people are leaning trunks for the economy they're blaming cover so that the ballot box that could be hearing more corona virus in the national economy even further to either you know. So I was saying the economy matters in two ways and cut exit this election. The first is that strong for most of his last three years has been saying. Look whatever you think of the economy is booming under my leadership a lot of Republican voters say they that's what they're voting for want a Republican legislators and members of congress say that's I think. When you look at like. You know like trump got 46% of the vote in 2016 east pulling in like 4042. Tonight that I do think some of that drop off is probably explain about the fact that. The one thing that people say I'm voting for trump because the one thing trump has been effective at I would argue. Is now been undermines that's one fact at a gets beat program. The second is I think media coverage matters it helped people received trump in public more broadly. And I do think. Trump would be covered differently and I would say more positively if unemployment was a 4% as opposed to being in double digits I think the media. A covers of talk has been very critically last few months. They're there was the pandemic there relates to the protest and poker hustlers of the fact that the one thing that everybody cares about the economy. That truck was good yet he no longer looks good at. And I think Trump's reaction that has been at thirty she was is that. I actually think trumped in some ways has over interpreted 2016. He seems to think he won the election because he sort of did this one an eighty politics stuff. And I thought that he wanted to depart the regular Republican and Republicans both Republicans. And I sort of thing if you sort of dialed. I think think he has decided the economy's bad when you lead into the editing stuff and I think if you decided the economy's bad. Libby picks that pandemic. Many say I don't want to raise taxes I don't think he's. And shifted from the economy to the sort of race stuff and I think he's ago for options seat. I think that's right community. Crimes trumped. In this traditional strategy for an incumbent mourning in America strategy prior to kind of modified car embers about it where arm. You know you response here from. The voters. Rethink don't like the tweeting in the president's. Says right economy is adding bottle law all right and I can't say that ninety camp like. I am. Now you can't. I know maybe the count is going rate for. Curfew people right if you don't like liquor delivered us this or something right but for most people. You cannot be happy with. With economists in the country I'm just saying oh that like. Even talking about what kind of Kobe. Is a predicate. All this right and there is no Kynan. Consideration of the economy. Independent of Colvin I guess and to the extent there is it seems like. Mildly positive for trouble people are forgetting. Based on that whatever three years of growth we had. But for comment. Sylvia. Before we move on we've seen a little bit. Tiny bit of an uptick in terms of Trump's approval recently and even in some battleground states. Does it look like he's hit bottom a couple weeks ago and things are. Going better for him now or is that an over interpretation of a small amount of recent data. I think it's an over interpretation of this moment recently. I don't think things have mute. That much. What that's you know here's down nine points before half hour ever write like him that's a big. That's a big margin. And you might expect things to tighten right I mean you know one way to when we can look at this is just gonna say okay well we. Done order prior should be about. The economy rate which is kind of throw our hands up. And say we assume. It is Pryor's it's 5050 defaults where competitive election polarized electorate right. I mean that's not a crazy approached today Tom at a maybe expect some tightening potentially. I don't think there's good evidence like you know I mean I don't wanna we are. In a technical debate already suffered I was portrait of the debt write but I think like. You know some polling averages like repair politics don't account for how suspects in an exit pollsters they have. Consumed artificial swings. Our polling average totally avoids that and shows less of that especially look at credit state polls aren't just. National polls common in the staples have been. You know roughly speaking it's bad for compass and I don't think any point in the campaign so. I don't know that I buy there's been much tightening. And particles up on the economy subject I wouldn't say if voters are no longer determining who to vote for a based on economic growth. Great the president has very little control over these things has always been a dumb part of politics averages of George Bush didn't hurt the economy in 92 he lost. And at least he had no control or like. The president say it helps that tax policy that changes the economy a little bit in this case the president held account in of the pandemic badly. Death affected the economy. Be much more logical don't vote based on what you want role or pro choice or pro life judges in if you think Barack Obama Donald Trump or John McCain can fix the economy which they have no actual expertise. For sure yet. Home. Yes so in some ways. May be becoming more partisan. And on morning year preference for president based on the economy it is. Positive a fact of an increasingly partisan. The. Silver linings and erase. Let's move on and talk about the president's attempt to cast doubt on the results of the election. Last week president trump suggested delaying this fall's election quo until people can properly security and safe we. He doesn't have the power to do act congress starts and according to reporting last week lawmakers of all political stripes aren't on pork. But his suggestion as part of its for years the president has cast doubt on the results of elections. He claims obviously baseless week that millions of people voted illegally in person and into doubt sixteenth. Now he based loosely says mail voting will be to quote massive fraud. There what are the potential consequences for American democracy of president trump working to delegitimize the results of the auction. I mean its independence in the president's route says things all the time that are problematic in misleading and outright fall also. I think the questions and he becomes not sure what's wrong says does matter but whether. People follow them particularly. Do Republican elected officials in states who determine what it is and decide. Because trump says mail in ballots are invalid or fraud that they're gonna stop counting them after like you know they come into late. Right because I think they're gonna I think the one thing the trouble really as an attack over his in the here's the person slump is put in charge of the US mail system. Is making some changes to it in terms of slowing the L mail delivery it might affect the election itself. And that the effect it depends on if voters typically Republican voters come to believe that all mail in votes are chronicle forever reason. That creates a issue of like if a state that's slow counting. Are there is the Republican base in this state pressuring them stopped count that matters to I think is important not isolate trump says all kinds of misleading crazy things all the time the key question is do voters believe those things and you Republican elected officials. Act on those things. Sat what do we know about the extent to which borders believe these things are trying to believe them. Great so. A study released earlier this umpire 8538 contributors the two men with the voter steady grip. This question and authoritarian and sun where Republicans and Democrats song question. And working they found this particularly striking was both Republicans and Democrats were open to their preferred presidential candidate. Rejecting the legitimacy. At the election if they. It claimed credible evidence heavily polluting. Are foreigners fear and touches back to vehicles from the Washington Post that Tina 2017. The Republicans roughly. Believed trump won the popular. And they would support postponing the 20/20 acts. Again this 117. It's been a few years now. But the fact that voters Citigroup came out this summer and after that finding that was particularly chilling and it cuts both ways for both Democrats and Republicans. And so I mean is it fair to say then that dais it is. A significant threat if the president were to kind of follow through on I guess the extension of this which has doubting the actual results of the election and you ago. Maybe making some statement asks his win before the ballots have been counted. Eased that a genuine threat to. You know American democracy. Or is that. It. Is she also Harmon's great act that track. This is also familiar territory in the sense. How did you opens the second key did this and 2016. People had gone in person voted legally. And Gallup recently had Apple's increased this was from 2019 that should doing that now. Only 40% of Americans were confident the election again majority was not hands in theory that probably won't be new heart. It this fall. To what hearings. Earlier a lot of this will come down to. How to other elected officials are spot how Republicans handle this if it continues to escalate in what we sauces are greatest that. Most of us that the president and his pushed us. What are the incentives there in terms. How Republicans respond to press there are some situations in which Republicans push property forcibly. On certain things the president does or says point trips Syria is one example this is another example so. When can we towel. What are the patterns in terms of when his fellow Republican lawmakers are rejecting. I mean trump has not gotten too much support. On these sentiments from other Republicans I don't think you can certainly argue that in not and enough. Q Chris Packard announced them right. I think state level officials like governors. Secretaries of state. Probably feel number one. People generally like to make it easier to vote. And they want the option to be able to vote by mail during a pandemic right number two. There's a fine line between. Trump trying to do whatever. Prepare the ground for her tax and democracy and things to skirts turnout from his own base. Which would hurt Republicans up and down the ballot right if you privilege that hey this thing is rated. Mean people don't vote at all if you say hey. Mail ballots or create maybe people. You know Cunningham turnout Election Day but it's come up on Election Day. So truck has not recently got that much support from. Other elected officials. It is kind of a always dangerous has withdrawn it has the makings of a coherent plan right. A coherent plan where. We dared you create which is gonna happen now I'd be partisan split who goes by mail and he doesn't. And and there are things you do you gotta nickel actor deliberately need to make it harder for adults we're people are look at mail ballots problem. Back to their states. And or are you know you the very least Chris situation in which. Broke counting his slow mean you have a lead. 1 AM on election night because not all male adults and counted right and and you kind of cast doubt on how calm. The casting doubt on the up my mail not lead to you. From losing her turf when he or constitutional crisis or even act right and it is like you know. They could delegitimize the next president and as Joseph Biden. It cool eight. You know trigger lawsuits the stuff like that things are so slow we're seeing. When it is at trump stalls like these primaries in New York where still there a couple of race there are declared taking months to count ballots right. Can match if that happens in a swing state Arizona are starts or whatnot how that might affect things. So they're scenarios where it gets Massey says like kind of the question earlier about like is it time to panic. I think ores and orchestrate its lessons were like. The more alarmed people are now hum. Manned. Maybe the last listeners to deal armed you know I mean it's almost like Covert or something right. The repentant to you are. The less they eased out of hand right analysts prisoners at. I think it's different groups here right. Number one voters he prepared for. For eager Hilton about making sure they get their ballots in the nation host mark Amundson right. Q the media. It's been more prepared for where the fact that we mean a neat and I'd election night that it probably won't although the election is. As much a blow out. As polls she orders currently it will be resolved. But odds are it's going to be long election week or longer com and number three kind of state and local officials and congress also I don't know it. Leverage Nancy Pelosi has refused lot of leverage because like. You really a puppet sort of stimulus package accompany her crown. Com edition of lot of leverage nation there is enough funding to order. Counting ballot returns and funding for the post office right on sometimes I think frankly unless he hasn't used leverage that way is effectively is like. Mitch McConnell might or something. But the fact people are alert to this technique used. This is let's restoring but there is like. There is a real plan which term could cause. Or at least real confusion. I was I am alarmed I would say two things. The first thing is the president of the United States hinting six yes being implying. We should change the election date is bad even if no one else follows is this a bad thing it's alarming in this incident no other president Ackerman do you gotta be an apartment. So the second part I think it's really problematic is. It looks like our election systems are already not very good pre Celtic like me he had. You know we had these very long lines Blue States red states urban areas are growing between urban areas. Long lines were terribly counting mail in ballots and to slow even before this. We have a lot to get their mail in ballots rejected if they forgot to sign that bird's signature requirement in which we were not very clear about so. When you had on these existing systems happened. Red states Blue States everywhere. And YouTube in theory with in the middle candidate need a president who's saying we need to work out of the likes it starts me to like spend money to improve our entire structure. As it's already bad up handed it makes it worse. Instead we have a president who was very much not doing this to you had a situation right paying my real worry is. There's going to be some state with a number of reads mail in ballots that are rejected or turned in late. Is higher than the than the margin of victory when the candidates and that is really worrisome and I was in that he gives Joseph Biden when the state or truck when the state he shouldn't have more rejected. The boats then there aren't in the margin of victory. How is this different from. And I asked that's intellectually. Governor is moving quickly to postpone primary elections earlier in the year. In many cases were perceived as the responsible thing today. Well. Constitutionally the date on the primary elections are not mandated. But now I I don't know that it was a good idea forgotten for for governors to do that. And I thought they were too many liberals who were not even thinking long term and saying of course you have to be moot right under Wisconsin vote. And vote and it's this pandemic right where it's like again constitutional term as new authority to viewed. And his that allegation of these from Newt. Com and way to contravene the constitutional. The precedent wise yeah I thought it was a bad press and the fact that people can't. Like actually I mean political commentators. Don't seem to give. One iota of concern about like actually being intellectually consistent. But no I think that was not great. Yeah I would not I think there was there was criticism from the left on the album everybody let's have as a criticism on from the people who did say. Moving the date is bad. Straw might take advantage of this don't do visiting there was some contender which stated I was Ohio particularly when people like what are you are confident I think bulk of what what are you doing here. I mean I would say if it's on. And I wanted to be honest here is on November. First see thousands. Seats team Mitt Romney was president and you it's a I think if people have to vote on this day there's some hands and make this dangerous and it might still lots of people. I would have hearted differently than Donald trouble like efforts and I think you know I don't like it likely wielded a different moral John McCain Mitt Rodney George Bush Barack Obama Bill Clinton John Kerry saying it. Use different as somebody who. Violates democratic norms all the time and I don't think it's a bit I think it's. Worth noting Donald Trump is different and like all you know people should be more skeptical about things he says in this regard. You brought up history there and sometimes referred to past presidents and I want I did a little bit more in to whether we can rely on history at all. As a guide for this moment. I know that we have pat top reversals in the past in the United States probably the most recent one being at the 2000 election on the role that the Supreme Court made. But in this. Particular case how much can we rely on history as a guide for what happens when the legitimacy of election is called into question. And how much is this simply very different from something that we've experience at the country for. Sarah. Still hanging there as president in the sense that we had an election Drew Neitzel who are like one of the in. Hallmarks of American democracy seriously the peaceful succession of presidents and 1876. Is huge task one. Tilton director B Hayes and essentially in order for Hayes to win reconstruction. Rate in the south increased told. So we've had contentious elections what makes this. Different I think again goes back to what hear you saying. Ops. You could imagine if president Romney was saying President Clinton we half you know this. Life threatening and which take precautions that means postponing the election. That would be a different message right but it has changed and he's arguing lets us on the election. He seeing that's reopen schools there's a lack of consistency. Goes back to eat listening about. It doesn't actually follow and the presidents bill house to make this needs congress. They are to be the courts involved in so it's just the way in which she chooses to go about trying to push something. On one hand. Chris has good instincts lower life threatening. Doesn't actually practice. Achieves that Steve. Seconds to you know we in this election in 2000 that was very contested. I think afterward in 2001 has into there was talk people won't believe in the system anymore they won't trust Supreme Court. I don't think that was borne out I think in 2004 we had a traditional election. George Bush won I don't think people were going around people hated George Bush who were Democrats I don't think he believed he diligently wanted four. Even two dozen sixteen. There's been a Russian investigation but I'm not sure that Democrats Dee out that more people in. Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump. And voted for Hillary Clinton I don't think that's I think legitimate he's the investigation itself the Russian help trump is bay as a investigation I don't think people are questioning the actual results of the election debt much so I don't so historically I think we have in hand. Least recently we haven't had real questions about the legitimacy of the election results. I guess mine worry about this one is. I do you think sort of hard to sort of partisan slash cultural divides in the electric deeper than ever meaning sort of light. The white Christian party verses people who are not white Christian is kind of gotten much much much more. Than ever site do you think. The two sides really don't want to see the other we and I think the Democrats like the second term. Donald Trump is the end of America until morning Joseph Biden's and implied this. At times it trump has been using very apocalyptic language as well your way of life in in the suburbs so I do think in that since the stakes you'll. Really high for people maybe the stakes are really high and higher than previous race announcer I would commit that compares missile so. I do think the State's election you'll hired people than 2000. And therefore I think the conduct fighting over like the results could be much more dissident intense if the results are any way dispute. I mean it feels like a lot of these things are where light on. They're direction leader is cited precedent sure her. Republicans trying to make it harder people living generally. There is precedent for very messy. Elections from. You know Samuel Tilden to 2000. I I guess I feel like. Trump news. Crossed several lines that hadn't been crossed before I'm not sure I'm competent nine you know we deferred. You know to someone who knew more American history contested elections right. It certainly seems like. And I don't think there's been any sitting president before or who Qaeda. Said pace the system that got me elected system is rigged. And you can't trust this could happen in the next election I don't think there's an outline. Crossed before. And an outright I I don't. I'd have to I'd have to decide. How serious I think. These things like making a post office dysfunctional are ranked. That would seem like it probably crosses a line. Potentially. But maybe not mean obviously we had Dickerson yours and yours is that there were like. People this franchise officially unofficially or it's or whatever and ordered anyone could vote right and so you know in some sense like. The right to vote has been kind of at the center of all this potentially. But it does feel like. Like this is a normal and that's. If that's what we passed it. So to extend this to its potential logical conclusions what would happen in a scenario where. President trump rejects the apparent outcome of the election and refuses to use concede even if he house lost. I simply think this is depends a lot of what actually happens it if Biden wins every swing state Georgia and Texans. The median declares. Biden obviously why Mitch McConnell starts making plans for the next. And I think that trouble be speaking of people ignoring him and degenerates when he people walking out didn't feel this it'll all be of the development. What's a bluster. I sites in other words I think this is very dependent upon what the results are sore as it does it down to one state if it's like Wisconsin if if it does sound like they're likely to 626. Electoral vote lies and straw is behind Wisconsin by 400 votes. I think it's going to be hard to remove him Buteau I think that's a problem. Even that he actually loss I mean I think it was to be honest who won election that's going to be more. Silencing. If you're results are more clear I think that is a useful and think about. I totally think like here in Kentucky for example or I you know in 2019 we had a governor's race where met Devin with the public Republican governor. As you know lost by about 5000 votes he was counting hinting at a reaching out what am I gonna do and when Davis McConnell like. Seems to be heading to 01 you know everybody else sort of reacted it's well organized and it's unfortunate. That it took this I would say yeah but I act that I know did it once I don't doubt if trump law clearly he might consider doing it begins I think the Republican reaction be important. And I think telling I think the media you know we worked for the American broadcasting to abuse of worth noting that. If the media is fairly unequivocal about it seems Donald Trump lost here's where things were and I think you'll see polling showing. Also to league delight us and I think public opinion. I'm not convinced that if doll club says. I didn't lose and he lost that cleared up every Republican will be stand with him forever I think their when he Republicans who believe in the rule of law and believe. They can win in tweets when he sportsline. Like yeah I think it's worse I don't match your opponent is worried about the I think that I'm not worried about this I think people might react in a sort of normal way of Donald Trump loses particularly he's down but in the polls I think people or anticipating culture of losing sight if not to be out of knoller. Yet. Stephen Kellen racy addressing that name right here is a co-founder of the Federalist society wrote. An op Ed about Trump's palm claims saying. This is not Kosher you know I've stood by truck by a lot this is way over a line. You know but that's type of person that liked. Might actually split from trump in the event he tried to. On and firm grounds like Seau somehow light wind right. And justices and so forth I mean there's a process for. Replaying all this out right I mean ultimately. It is. House represented in the ghost Electoral College right combined it with. Crazy scenarios. Where Nancy Pelosi becomes president. Because I think the senate the senate as apple deported BP and the house that you know achieved consensus on who they would. Pick adjudicated two Electoral College right then imperial generate according. Trump's term is over it coastal line of succession and it's useless to become acting president so you know. Interest listeners about Russ areas where. Where in the senate confirms as vice president. We've become president at the house is deadlocked. So you know interest in times yet what happens if trump like. You know physically refuses to leave. The White House even though. The process has been carried out and you lost right constitutionally. He's no longer president. I think kind of differently you get from like. November 3. To January 20. The more you gets January 20 the more there are clear laws on the books about what happens right it's more like. If he had a close election. And trump. Messes with the vote counting. And it creates. If she who's right or he messes with. The perception of legitimacy for her for president. Elect Biden or whatever right those are happy to different grades right like. Robbed. You know messing with the actual she's a result the situated at like. There's evidence that like Mickey Hart people who vote was have to swing the margin some key states and change the outcome right. Where some 2000000 area where stopping counting when they were ballots. Before said deadline and I counted in that would change the outcome. That's a bigger. Crisis than merely. You legitimizing. The next president musical still bat right but if you actually had some evidence that light. Shenanigans affected the results and that's. A bigger problem. Or if you have evidence that like saying. Some state appoints electors that don't see under what the popular all of that stage right packets to be pretty. Crisis right. It seems like there's plenty of dry Tinder here. For people who would take advantage of a scenario workers already in both state and institutions in the United States. And that brings us to another restaurant which it which. All of you have brought up at some point during this conversation and that's the world that we all play it and this conversation in the media and tried to make a potentially. Confusing and contentious election last sorrow. What can we do you write an hour on election night to make sure it. You know we've reduced the number of potential. Problems that home where the strict watch. You know attorney general William Barr and trapper saying it's meal and Dodi these spare. There's no evidence at the instance that the well I think we're losing sight. This could be an election with unprecedented. Rate hike. Annual rate kitchen looked primaries held here during the company's nearly every state has been increased from her last previous. In the amount that were cast remotely. I think we need each telling. Readers there audience that this could be in messy election not because there's widespread fraud. But because at this scale that by which people are voting remotely. It hates it issues that raise its. Because I feel like trump has made that conversation. He can no longer how new intelligently. But it is something that I think we need to be doing more slower readers to understand that this this could be messy and not because of for a. I guess that was more the media outlets that it's a which it thinking it's like a two month process of elections gonna have is opposed Election Day. I think October is going to be full of voting early voting. Well I'm Neal Seoul October is not idealists and they aren't always happen but now we're really could hand out. A different militant process then no liberal beat you out. Now November 3 so your 97 person panel in which you have nights of the people who are excited to say what election means. May be rained any end to that we don't know what the election means if half the votes have not been counted yet. So I think this notion that we after this he election night that we are trained ourselves war. I think he's gonna have to be sort of on while unwound and are really aggressive way enacting this sort of you can hear that I think incident with a piece of the New York Times today is not a toll original ought to aggregate oriented piece that is think it. Election night is no matter what Donald Trump says. Election night as you probably not gonna hear a speech from Joseph Biden on Election Day or Donald Trump about who wanted me have to wait. And you know did just that meaning you need this New York these New Yorkers have taken a long time. I don't know we need six weeks I mean hopefully will be sooner than and it's been an immediate past in the net I just think we have to do in the minds maybe. We don't know who won let's until December I think that's realistic possibility. I'm tepid trump might try to get an election night speech writer is ahead in the popular and Sharon. But a lot of uncalled states right. I didn't I note that. I agree at all that and media as a role here I am a smaller pointed missiles in the conversations on. You know we've had as a group is like people acting on bitter themselves it to look at the situation in individual states. And what the expectations are as far as Tanya different boats coming in individual states. You know I know in Florida for example often right when polls closed the report. The first tranche of absentee ballots mailed in early right then they report. Election night. And then they report later returned absentee ballots. To back increase XE patterns right if they actually dealt their democratic. You might actually have. By the way 8 o'clock and then trump really catches I mean we are expiring. But then things begin to shift back toward buying rights have been kind of familiar rit. These scenarios and how they might play out because they are actually saying. False signals are in multiple. Directions. But it's not like some random. Patterns right and it looked different each day like its unpredictability alike different track is about whether count we are by the way forward. This negate partisan split. In intention to vote by mail or not it's he's been pretty non partisan. And it's possible that some people who say dominant vote. In person as a Republican and it's actually usually voted by mail and sit like Arizona here's my about seizures and her nose like. I any type of like. In type of election night needle or forecasts I think it's going to be trot. Yeah I mean you're discussions aren't and the congress are gonna have gone on election nine forecast. There are negotiations about if it were totally up to meet and we would trigger lightly on. I think went and might reduce. Scenarios and game out okay if Biden wins this in that state and cousin Catholic men. But like. With that gaining in too much from what my bosses and their bosses write like. Yeah I mean I think the theory. Worst manifestation of like jump to conclusions might be trying to like take all these unknowns for which have no real precedent. And plug them into lights and type model now do you think if like if you literally. Are the New York Times and he said we literally arkan and his. Fifteen people to this election night Earl action month project. Halftime. For. July 1 through November 3. Panic in her research. Every nuance of how the vote will come in and talked security stay in elections officials in light plant for thirty contingencies. Like. I mean if you want to put that at the massive scale into it. Van. I've been that might be really valuable. But be mostly are reporting project and not like a statistical project right you know Cisco models work. Way you have. Some past precedents to rely on what you're into the debates about life. Comedy precedents are now what sample size is now right if you a sample size and zero then. Then statistics as deep monster too reliant reporting to understand. What's on his fate in a situation. So our guess looking a might say is. New user visits tend to cover what the president says is news in and their first week is. President says acts you might now begin let's and they'd be like. Trump says if trump says look if you go to vote in Florida you'll diet coated you may not want to like you and alerts on that it is evident transcript with the president of I think investors with a president seems evidence that it too. Create misleading comments it will be incumbent upon the news media FaceBook Twitter to be very vigilant about making sure he does not sort of Alter the elect coral process in problematic ways by spreading misinformation. So criticize this will be an election in light. None other. Sorry its desire to all of our listeners who might have been excited for. A regular election night but I guess in exchange you get potentially. Weeks of election night coverage so hopefully you can live with that but. I think that's a dozen known how many it thoughts as we wrap up here. Every election he and I say how. Let's get crazier pocketing could increase your next election. And I wish I didn't think that. It I wish I endara. Election period. Like us I mean fortunately. You can't take a vacation anyway. So is gonna say don't plan your vacation for November or you can't go anywhere anyway maybe by the time actually whose president. Then you'll really go to more than two other countries. As Americans. You know look on the bright side. All right indeed the bright side bluntly retired bank unit. Thank you can't. Thank you parent. And make these are things. And some housekeeping before we go I want to let listeners know that we are not planning to have a second podcast this week. Unless of course there is emergency news because Joseph cried and announces his VP pick. But we have a lot of busy weeks out of us with our forecast launch and the conventions and so on. So I'm gonna be off but. You don't we will be back in case of emergency we'll see next week. My name is you know injury attorney chow is in the virtual control room you can't touch by emailing us at pod cast at 530 dot com. You can also courts treated us with questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show Revis or reading or reviewed in the apple podcast store or tell someone about us thanks for listening and most. Yeah. I.

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