FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How both parties’ 2020 primaries are going

The FiveThirtyEight crew breaks down the winners and losers of last week’s debate and talks about the other race — the Republican primary.
49:44 | 09/18/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: How both parties’ 2020 primaries are going
Welcome to the sanctity of politics podcast on this edition we'd discuss the preliminary data on what voters think about how the Democrats did in the third democratic primary debate hosted by BBC in Houston. We also talk about the Republican primary race they are through Ricky Republicans challenging president trump for the nomination. They may not have great odds of winning but will they have an effect on the race. You're watching the 530 politics pod cast on ABC news line we're now four days out from the last democratic primary debate and that means we've had some time first and data to come and giving us an idea of how the candidates did. It's good news relative warned not great news for who and Castro and won't get into exactly what the data tells us were also going to look at another primary race. The Republican primary. President trump has three challengers at this point they are former governor of South Carolina Mark Sanford. Talk show host and former congressman Joseph Walsh and former governor of Massachusetts bill while who's been in the race for quite some time now. Drug's approval rating among Republicans is also reliably and in the mid to high eighties. So even if Republicans like trump will any of the challengers a fact the over all race we're gonna get into that later on. But here it means to discuss all of this our editor in chief and it's over how to count. It's going pretty well I'd say I like that pink twenty sure you've been canceled for Monday know they got. Again if you're watching as an ABC news lies you RD near that Nate was wearing a Pink Floyd dark side of the new and he sent me again. All's they are thus is in your politics are at a Kremlin pentagon. And managing editor Mike account Harry and temporary commitment fantastic let's begin with the democratic debate. What's data do we have so far on the candidates performances in the third. We have a wonderful poll conducted. 538. And excess. Different in our friends that it says is that it is rare for us to get press. They've actually in Africa the death knell I am. It's actually really of every talk about the what the poll showed that as far as I've seen. Beat that's it if those poll is the only relieve scientific post debate poll. There was a chat Hague dash college polls poll. I'm of college students. But other than that it's like. The sixers up by 38 atlas Paul's comment only game in town. Is good for us I guess but I mean we should saved by the time it orchestra chords. Made it or you listen to this broadcast and early morning Monday morning morning consult usually Monday evening comes out with their weekly tracker. You know we always hear rumors. About other polls in the field. All right so based on what limited knowledge we do you happen will make back hobby it's. I think we can. Let's do it let's do what they thought of the debate and then how that affected the race let's separate those two things. Well I think the public didn't like that with the inflating yet so that so. That our poll. With our friends. She shows that. Castro and Biden took hits and they were. The two candidates at the center of a lot of snake being castor in particular. But I will say that I think people. Seem to have taken us a second look a little bit at some march 2 tier candidates. So O Rourke oh probably had his best night I'd say. Workers also became part of the conversation. For tragic reasons because he. His hometown was. Targeted in in a mass shooting and so a lot of Democrats talked about that. Although there was some interesting we look at this later but there were damaged in permutations court Booker particular. Anderson I'm glad you now care about gun violence but I've cared about for years the department my community let rejection some interesting stuff but. I think it was a pretty good night for O Rourke if only in part because he became. A more central part of the debate but Bridget Johnson had a I'd say thank you candidates. Benefited and are important. To talk about her awful. And so clear route. Jurors Biden and Castro were there any other clear losers of the night. According to result I actually passed for more than five I'm not sure the clear losers castor arming his ratings are way. Off the charts low it has. On intervals when a lot more than this they rubles. With Biden we got it learn a little bit more about. You know so Harris. Seemed to have a bad night in fact her ratings worker. Slightly. Lower than Biden's people ask about her debate performance. Bernie and maybe it. You know equal night. Tonight and so the question is is there are a world where Biden benefits from. From Warren gaining ground at the expense maybe of Sanders and Harris has you know if we look at the numbers we know that like. There's just not seen a lot of crossover between warring and Biden. There does seem to be between like. Between. Harrison Biden which we saw the first debate. And some symmetry burning in my and they're both kind of competing for non college voters in the media ignores all the time but that's a conduit that are right. So would it shock mete out like. Biden's position is. A little bit worse now would it shock me if it looks. About the same to strategically slightly better because like kind of Harris declines and a couple of points or something I don't know minidisc dynamite my. Whenever a hot take is like I do you think we're gonna see. Probably a lot of modeling. From positions for and below. So you know it's much polls came out and had Harris. 45% and predicted to for a 5% and a roar in Booker. And I don't know maybe Klobuchar even. Yeah also for a 5% saying I'd say it's kind of I mean I think Harris had like a fairly. Bad night right with Interpol who are you considering. The person dropped off the medalists. Was Harris she went from 27 point 7225. Point two. Which is only a quart electric now is considering you right given multiple choices like that's not super great and that's a lot closer to like. Vento was at sixteen and is suit Sanders is at forty a little bit but not much right and so you know. So it wouldn't surprise me if I'm the very thing that we are kind of sort of he's gonna arguing incident like this Big Three percent or else. That's might be what we went up with right you might wind up with with that it. Big Three verses or anyone else you might wind up with the big two meaning Biden Warren and then Sanders particularly in third and then everyone else right. Can can I ask something there about these consider members I'm just even before the debate and and especially after the debate. Or act forget that I would just surprised by the extent to which he's considered numbers are low. Which an eight point about sort of how top heavy the field as I mean less than 10%. Likely primary voters are considering Klobuchar Castro yet. Write in hand so strong tents and purposes like. If less than 10% of voters are evening considering voting for you. You're in a fair amount of trouble right about a quarter of likely primary voters or fewer. Are considering voting for harassment and judge or Booker Yang Klobuchar Castro I mean let me and I suggest a top. Milligan when technical detail here. Which is that I'm not sure the survey instrument if Sosa used to ask this question America's are two ways to do it if you're on the phone. You would go through one by one and Nancy Perry considering to bite me considering that O Rourke right. I believe if you're. If you're taking the poll on line this is an online poll. That are probably has a list of box that you can collect you can click as many boxes you want I would bet that produces like slightly fewer considering its. And if you action with the people one by one. That's like test if you fortunate asked him a considering Castro. Shore or write an architect is by accident really like. Warren Harris or something but that I would almost think it's making people tackle boxes more accurately better it has been like I'm you know I mean like when Ehrlich and going to spend the effort. To collect Andrew Yang has boxer court of lookers box rate like OK it's at least some some type of work you're doing. Yeah are Nate you talk a little bit about who else may be had a not a great night in addition to pastors I was Harris. You started us off Claire by talking about better having a pretty good night you also mentioned. Warren final note that according to our favorable ratings those were the only two people in the race. Who decreased their number of on favor rules so they not only increased our favorable but got people who are already decided kind of against then. On their side each two it may be small victory. What about you mentioned the shooting in a house what about Elizabeth Warren made her neck particularly good or Parker and a stronger position current. So. Last week's podcast. I think I said at the very engine in Mike and I were talking I think in recent it'll be inching to watch how to. Women on stage tour major front runners kind of hand and that was struck that Harrison and Warren. And also how Warren handles her. Womanhood aside from the kind of inching up to front runner status at least Big Three status. I think she did. A sappy thing which was. She never really tapped Joseph Biden all that much. You see her you know she was one of the candidates who gained support she in the other part of lower tier candidate in support. I think in part that's because she started. Year. Maintained to sort of smiling presence throughout the degree says she's missed she was certainly part of policy back and forth with machine Sanders their actions Biden vs a couple of the people on stage. But I do think she had and an ability to to have a presence of ability. And that was very helpful particularly in on the debate Steve where things got a bit nasty and I should say that like. People did her dirty work for her you know a lot of ways and so. She probably knew that was going to happen. Com on some level that other people could cut come at Aaron you know I don't think that anyone on stage had an agreement per say but. Who Leon Castro attacking Biden. Am. On a variety of fronts any. He hard core way. Was certainly down until it warns that and she certainly. We feel sorry were you surprised. By sort of how clearly Warren came out the winner. In these numbers I mean. The music of and one is that like. We should look at the kind of horse race numbers we don't want look at one poll actually and are secondly it would get more responses over on. We can I came and we published on Monday. And those were like a little bit more tepid for war and in the which the responses so still pretty good but like so now if you look at our update members. Her on the rebels. Did technically increased by a point three percentage points which interest yet on which I mean the kind debate watchers. Like Warren also people who watched debates and to be college hated it and to be policy focused so they may have been a good audience for Warren. In the first place. But like she has this termite usually ape but she has momentum it seems a sense of like. Gradually gaining ground as people are exposed a her more. And I don't think the debates and you very much to halt her momentum she got by the way this morning it endorsement from working families party which is it. Nice little get for her they endorsed Sanders last time around. And in some states such as New York they actually have an outline I believe. In so it's not bad from. Better I mean in some way is like still though the overall message that Warren and meadow had good nights I think is true and in some ways Warren meadow. Our interest in the attack and all slick along these isolating. Perceptions right warrants are now where was all about poke on the spoke on spoke on us. Sentiment was quite negative toward her not to some in the media but also among certain types democratic voters at the start a campaign to kind of been. Gaining ground ever since a kind of playing off like. Low expectations. But out came in with very high expectations. Initially actually kind of have this big first fundraising number and then just totally kind of flopped ever sentencing kind of became like a whipping. The way for the media and the came as candy it was all hype and privilege and so banana he's reversing veteran little bit too maybe I'm not sure it's toward any. Alternate purpose but like. But you do see kind of people recovering from changing expectations. Yeah and that's actually why I think the debate was. The debate and we should emphasize rate is separating out kind of what people thought the debate from its effect on the west race the effect on the horse race we think this. Pretty minimal right. But one reason I do you think it it was a bullish sign for warrant as she came in as Claire mentioned and with a lot of focus on her. And I think where earlier in the campaign maybe there weren't. High expectations. Has made it said. I think there were going into this debate and just objectively watching it. I thought warranted fine but I wasn't high. Old lawn cleaned up right and so it's interesting to me that she came out with pretty good numbers out of this because it suggests okay. I'm a pretty good by her standards performance but not spectacular. Is enough. Evening Vietnamese increased expectations but I think I think it's on earth campaign in bay you know again it may be that the other for the awareness sovereign authority coroner said. Had bad nights you know Biden I think clearly in the second half a debate. Was giving responses that you know we're a little wandering. I haven't understood harris' strategy prickly and I last two debates. And Bernie was fine. I do you think like actually the horse and a staying. Makes it hard to listen to it that matters I mean to be to probably about aesthetics. And the public didn't love his debate either and we reasons polling and so does more like. I don't think she was like. Doing cartwheels on state of the cues may be the worst of the three debates she's had so far. But are now I mean maybe it's because our ABC news colleagues. Really stick to substance for early to tell porn but in there is such assumptions for a long period of time wears little harder kind of BS your way. Through this debate. I think that made for all four of the Kenneth off four of whom are skilled. Politicians right Elizabeth Warren is a skilled politicians it was Bernie Sanders. And soul you know you had kind of a more difficult obstacle course. To navigate. I wanna ask a question about Elizabeth Warren in particular we've described her frequently on this podcasts and in the broader media. Ecosystem as well as Warren is the person who has momentum if you look at the average of polls though over the past month. Her pulling hasn't gone up it's gone down a little bit and kind of stayed the same for awhile. Gone up a little today but there's not occur it's not clear that that momentum that rocker to on average eighteen points by you know week July. Is still kind of keeping at the same pace so I guess where what are we talking about when we mean moment when we say momentum. IE think that if you do not adjust polling averages for house affects me it tendency of certain pollsters to. To show higher or lower numbers for candidate than you can in certain noise into a polling average. And therefore some us bouncing around might not really be underlined public sentiment like. The liked him exit pollsters that happened have been active in the last two weeks or where. But I think ailments point that one has gone from my high single digits in the spring. Two. She's essentially doubled her support. A little more than that she's now like in that mid to hide it's right but I was by July and fears she'd gotten Q yeah double what is it if you look at. Our friends at morning counseled. And they're governing council it's just one pollster OK however that he tickner a large samples of its one pollster should prevent a mix of pollsters they show in extremely Lanier and steady. Increase for Warren that dates back to. Maybe mid mayors rightly show or kind of like literally every other week he gains a point. And you play that out and she's a 22 or whatever by. By Iowa and that's not bad but nothing is who should should we played out as I think to. My question is I'm part based on right what we often tell people what does that pass momentum there's not people future and it seems that a narrative has been established that. You know she as a memento of keep going keep growing up but looking at some average of polls it looked like it looks like that momentum may have stalled. I mean if theory could be that pay she is a persuasive. Can a people began with Pryor's about her based on Polk honest and frankly some stuff based on her gender and age may be right and as people get more information about them. The me overcome them and if there were repulsed by the fact that like. When you ask highly informed voters who do you like they are much higher. Like an elected I think the so everything about the last. Half for the summer's kind of it was sort of like a I thought a political Dunn's dead zone newswire sort of but I do think that the in assertive. There has been this maturation of the electability idea at least when it comes to war in. And that she is seen gradually as being more electable and I'm kind of I think the fall will become interesting because. Perhaps we'll start paying more attention to. Early state polls specifically Iowa as need. As mentioned before in New Hampshire and the idea than a place like Iowa filled with you know with an electorate that is dominated by. Whites. Liberal college educated active ST types on the democratic side at the caucuses that warring could do really well and that you know you Marty saw. Last week and at a few weeks ago. The Biden team really softening the ground and saying his knee twin island. You know perhaps prepping everyone for the the possibility that Warren or someone else could win those states and ends heard of trying to. Concurred against perhaps that like motivation. Expectation. Do you think team. Think Claire. So early on it seems like one real hurdle for Juarez and it was. Gender slash sex has perception. That she was kind of a Hillary Clinton dogs. Or to put him more charitable light. Just don't worry that Warren would run into the same gender its last sexist issue is that that Clinton did you. I have heard that we. Less fortunate I think it's become. Which it didn't a lot of people actually didn't know she was yeah court that there was the kind of it was a fassel way to compared with images same age. Lightly Brett. But I do you think. That's probably why warns team has spent a longer like they have Bratton those self felines attention listeners in the podcast know about witches. She's just out there and she's kind of being affable and select literally touching people read like literally being out there. She takes debates as a moment to talk about I used to be a teacher and I got married T and I went to this commuter school in Houston so very much conveying the idea of on the normal middle class leading not a Harvard professors not. A I go to the Hamptons fundraising. Circuit which I think was very much Clinton's perception and it's a little bit what I'm talking about the electability thing is it's. Yet no longer she's Hillary Clinton 2.0 and she as. Trump this trump Pocahontas nickname and it's hilarious how much in nickname queen Wright Tony twenty politics can really. Sway voters' perceptions but I do think weren't fighting for the first couple. Months a minute I do think it's. Fairly likely that at some point though war and will become more target from me other candidates and and from the media mean she's enjoyed I think like Katie. For refinement period of like very friendly and fear rural media coverage. Including things I like. I think Canada media bias like. But Clemens sinker and a hey she has a plan for that everything is really like substantive right. When I think like any other candidate positions are kind of cleverly crafted politically. And what she advocate if war is a liberal center mess just a slightly different in which it was she was. I'm not in an office and and everything else right. But you know I do think at some point there might be a great around. Of scrutiny. I'm and I think that'll come on her wealth tax plan which RD starting to see I think in more academic circles as people kind of saying listen she's. This is perhaps not as rosy an outlook as you might see. And I think but I hear I think is that. That will be a general election thing if she got through my one question is how much. More than what we saw at the past two debates will Democrats go after Elizabeth Warren in part because she's well liked by day. I think the other people on the stage but also the voters now but I don't I how much is how much we actually see. Those substantive critiques in the next what six month. I mean I think one other area of concern for her. And instilling a systematic a ridiculous and it's apologists. I don't if you're lessening. Current. Health care is essentially an issue we saw how Kamal Harris really seem to get squeezed and a second debate. Forward. Trying to have a little bit both ways and health care whether it was moniker for all who. One it sort of kind of right. And Warren is kind of tiptoed away from pure Medicare for all. Kind of release this. This kind of essay about health care I think understand last week it wasn't quite like a plan also wasn't quite. You know wasn't there when it was exactly but like she gets squeezed little bit between Sanders who I think I think what to the extent Sanders. Has a shot to hold off morning think health care is a big big part of that message. Panels are in terms of elected bill on the other side in terms of electability with how the conversation on the podcast before that. Medicare for all the virgin which means no more private insurance is just not broadly popular. It's not but it's probably better in the kinds democratic primary than most she policy stances right. Both Medicare for all and the public option like Biden advocates for it. Have huge benefits mechanics are primary beef simmered between. You know I really think here seem to get in trouble. Over that. And you can imagine Warrington and picking. Heaped on that I want to wrap up on this and we have time to get to use the Republican primary. York ought that. Last question here sure on a cause but political I mean you know and people are challenging Trout will do well how the feel of you know the democratic primary it capsule. And and sometimes they won't even hold primary contests as will discuss south. But anyway. We like to talk about new media narrative plenty so let me just give you read a headline from the debris and tell me if you think it's a correct take. After the third primary debate political magazine piece the title reads there is no longer for runner. After that Houston is that a fair tickle. It's it's literally not true. So these are now Sen who are at this point who is the top tier. Investing three as before. Well you've liked trolling me miss my piece last week is that Jessica two weeks ago I mean I think like look you can cut and brought a different. Numbers are candidates right one or two and winds are clearly one candidate is ahead evil or Biden or municipal I don't remains the numerical front runner. But there is there are. In possible signs of weak. I don't think I don't think in the wake of the debate. By gains. Front by and ends. Lead has been altered enough that I would remove the front runner label from I think the most meaningful change is made me. Walk is sorry is maybe harris' claim that a fourth spot. Has become a little more tenuous. That's and so effective so it said the takeaways may be. You know when Nate argued for like a top four top form half a week or two ago and I think that was the case that. But a top it's a little more top three now yeah are if hypothetically that the average putter was considering two candidates. And so these are considering embers from the cause a horse race number I been that would mean Harris could lose a pointer to. And a lot of these kind of second tier candidates might gain a point or two. To make it. We'll be right back here on ABC news live to talk about the Republican primary there are three Republicans challenging president trump. We're gonna talk about what effects they could hand on his long term prospects of being reelected and what they tell us about where the Republican Party is too. Now people challenging president trump for it the Republican nomination. Their odds are probably not agree winning that nomination but they could have some effect on the race overall. We're going to discuss that right now here on ABC news so let's start with kind of the big question. Claire is there any argument to be made that one of these candidates worth the three of them together pose a serious challenge to try. Syria than the people drawn well hey you know you know like an 80% and amalgamation effective having three people attacking in sort of want to. So I think I'll probably confine my comments to Stanford and welds because the are most like the tradition Republicans that traditional Republicans are used to voting for you get into trouble though because. I think of those Republican voters that used to vote for Republicans but don't like trump that much. My eats. And be tending more towards looking at democratic candidates particularly if Joseph Biden wins the nomination fight. I mean it is it's it's quite interesting to look at. The number of former campaign managers for Republican prep for the presidents who. Are really like on the Joseph Biden train and I kind of indicate something. So. I'm not sure I think I think bill weld. And Stanford will have to convinced those voters that. They should lodge a protest vote and that they should you know. Kind of convince them to vote in the Republican primary almost via because I think that there is a bit of disengagement with the Republican political process if you're not super into trump that's my initial inkling I think. The other thing like with Mark Sanford. He has been a little bit of political joke now his. Amazing scandal affair from a decade ago which he. Told it was acting as though it laugh. A decade ago connect them in that time flies in which he told is. Wife and staff that he was going to go hiking on the Appalachian trail but instead flew to South America to visit his mistress. And is that loses guys that was scandal that was a laughingstock thing. It was a big deal. Now I know he was legacy like otherwise became serious politician again he came back you did he did come back for it. I will leave the gender commentary and a time. But there is he is kind of still. Lamb possible you know like he still little bit of and bill weld or danceable. But vulnerable to rehabbing Lance. Who will boil. Reflect not a minute. And I think weld is you know weld was on the libertarian ticket in 2016. He was cared Johnson's BP pick he'd join the Libertarian Party in 2016 in order to be on that ticket. Then he left the Libertarian Party to be able to run this time around. Interesting guy. Was a governor. But again not like it's not like eighty current non scandal having Republican politician in good standing is mounting d.s. Primary challenges threat that's like vent then Nikki Haley Bart right at ray Nikki Haley isn't running she's just tweeting. Well yes there there's in betweens between. Haley and much remarks hampered America's Haley would be considered. I mean she's probably one of the most likely Republicans in the country to look members and at some point. Maybe after who's hot tea that's Arctic and author vodka. Now I think that's right yet that now we just felt assembly and Hayley bars like when we would take Republican primary. Seriously as a horse race yeah right which is different than taking it seriously yes like in intellectuals. Or even as that they spoke so let me just get this kind of stat out there all three presidents who faced significant primary challenges in the modern primary era. Did not lose the primary but went on to lose the general election. Even of these are not horse race risks. There an argument that just these three people challenging trump poses risks long term risks to his real auction. They are. There's an argument that they are symptomatic. Trump being weak enough where his real action is answers out. You guys agree. Well I mean we are no electoral as the 41 and half for redemption approval rating would lead you to think that there is doubt. Whether you be reelected and I but it like. You know so they don't tell us anything. They're heaviest they'd have the effective like. And chills dying disillusioned Bernie Sanders voters at the end of the 2016 primary process and you know dislike. To fleeting turnout where Matt. Well I I would I think output at this site. As Nate said. We have very direct measures of how strong trump is in terms of his reelection chances and they show he's pretty weak. Right his approval rating first four months. But what that leaves out is sort of like in what manners trump we right. And this packet that gets thrown around all the time is his approval rating among Republicans right. But as we've discussed and as has been discussed elsewhere that's his approval rating among self identified Republicans. And so what's interesting to me insight. The primary and some sense serves as an exploration and four where trump lack support with in the Republican Party. Do I think that it'll have like a call sole effect on his general election chances. Probably not. Maybe on the margins like having. To wage a prime Natalie and a little bit I think mostly it says it's an interesting exploration of light. You have this as Clarence getting this kind of diverse group challenging and man I am. Touted them how to Republican primary but its response that. Yes or what's dig into where is trump a week within the Republican Party. Well first I think the first and most obvious group is like. Like it clear preference witches like the never toppers like. More educated. More well off. Like parties and spider bite. Care about the GOP brand. I mean isn't little redundant to say that he's becoming never tempers trip is vigilant yet but we don't like him. No lately colleges look like the group so elegantly college educated white people who live in the suburbs and traditionally republic. Rightly that. I think I think the weakness in U guys we're getting this little bit right. But could certain critiques of trump coming from. Other conservatives. A group that might nine bill weld the province's Jo Walsh and India could that. Reinforce. Certain lines that. Voters also hear from the mainstream media and or from. Democrats and could have an effect that. You know like I did feel like what. I don't really blame. I never think that. Bernie Sanders campaign was a particularly because of why Clinton lost an orderly blaming human for playing out the string I do think that like. The stock that like kind of you heard a lot about. How the system was corrupt in rigged. To help her help lay some ground work for when prompt was making different arguments but that made some of the same rhetoric right so what are goal. What are the lines of attack that use thing Joseph Walsh or Mark Sanford could be meetings but that would reinforce themes that you know maybe. Soft Republican supporters are hearing in the mainstream media maybe themes that he hasn't. Drain the swamp. Yeah maybe themes that he's not. Quite. Up competent to the job goes into areas and I think herbal horrible yes of that I think what what is particularly interesting about Walsh's side OK sure. You know more educated Republicans wealthy or well off Republican to suburban Republican second and never trump group. OK obviously trump is weak there I think there if you look at that dated as like also evidence that. Republican voters voters who otherwise. Would be really sympathetic to trump and other words they're like hard line on immigration and maybe skeptical trade. Like voters made it look an oral area right there otherwise kind of have all the harm marks of trump supporters. But they are sensitive to stuff about. How he conducts its health and public right like if you Paul on that it's not like those people are just like I don't care about it is Joseph lost the candidate. Nah thanks not not a fire was building one in a lab but what I'm getting at is like. Both in in a sense of like how much support. Like if it will some of these candidates basically run as like look I agree with trump on the policy issues but I'm not an act crazy on Twitter. Yet means well and and again that elect I think Joseph Walsh again maybe not the best president but yet his argument would be like. I too believe in his mission in his plan and I've been disappointed by. Results hasn't in the swamp he's then off volleys and yet. I guess more skeptical of the Joseph Walsh approach because it is going after trump die hards. I wonder how picked off bubbled empire. Because is. The trump thing is such a personality based. Ragged ocean swaggering kind of thing and we've seen like even in instances with let's take the tense week in places where it's had. Big effects often Merle places you know instantly social PC people's third saying. For reporting its people do people saying it's hurting me right now I think it's for the bests. Interest of the countries alike trusts trump. Antony that is kind of like showing a pop up a certain power of the personality. So Walsh is going after people. It I'm countries about that demographic. Yeah I don't I don't think they are super or call four bull I think most aren't but. But we're talking on the margins here right it's like yeah percent matter here and and it's like temp percent of Amaro opened this message and I think they far. And I think that hasn't that ball right and margins do matters or Britain. White working class voters make up 45% of the electorate so even small margins can matter significantly and to your point about who Joseph Walsh isn't who he might be picking off and we haven't really. Filled out his biography in the same way we did with weld or at Sanford. He's basically. Got his rise in politics during the Tea Party movement as a congressman in Illinois and is hard light on immigration had plenty of things about Barack Obama that were Evers homophobic is unify America. At Sutter and as soon you know he is not a bill weld style old school New England Republican who. You know wants to lower taxes. And comes from some kind of white patrician family and yen. And Walsh isn't like the best messenger but I just think inherently it's it's a more interesting challenge to trump because it's where trump is strong. Then. Then some like weld who's challenging where trumpets we just because top in the Republican Party. Is weak and a large enough area for that challenge to be success stories in. Interest in particular I mentioned at the top today. Trump generally polls in the high eighties amongst Republicans and I'm looking at a recent Emerson College poll. This was with bill well to this was before the order to got in the race the other two primary challengers got in the race which was recently. And the poll showed. Rump with 84% to Weld's 16%. Is it. Fair to think of that kind of a breakdown. As. The Republican Party like their 16% of Republicans were willing to vote for somebody another Republican who's not trump. Or is there a bigger pool of soft trump were supporters out there. I mean sixteen seems higher in some miracles snow they. Well because I mean I've seen other polls where you know forty some percent of Republicans say they want to see a primary challenge against truck. Yell that's like that kind of the effect of have like an abstract ideal what's your take on how large because we look back on the Republican primary in 2016. A lot of people who didn't like trump to begin went and had to be kind of convinced could another Republican to convince them that they don't. Like company more. Well I mean at some point in the process between. The middle states as the primary in the November general election and lot of Republicans decided that like hey you know. If you can't beat them join them and decide that you like trump or they were caught up in the kind of partisanship of the general election right or by the way again in a one slight issue. With using self identified Republicans a metric is that there are some Republicans who say I'm no longer a Republican. Because I don't like trump and their for the universe of people who were present. In like say four years ago in the 2015 and at the same as in between nineteen seems to have it in a suspect but has some effect of them. Soul you know and Yasser draws people into the parties and I never Thomas of his Republican but I sure like. Trump has to say about you know immigrants for example. So it's not a perfect metric but candidate thought experiment here that yeah let's say. As a ticket which what are fees trump announces that. These gentlemen for reelection. Perfectly healthy swans were time to enjoy himself he thinks its fiscal first term there's no. Particular scandal or if India wants him currently decides you know what I'm with someone else run. Who would fill that void when you think would happen. Nixon this with the Nikki Haley congress an enhanced. The would be times. Why because he's just let's be President Obama apart I mean I guess maybe thinking about the Republican political identity. Is tense because he fits the current Republican political identity or is there somebody who better fit to. It could more easily roll into that and did to roll into the populist. Forma things because he is you know he's the Indiana guy he is what what's what was his great lion. I'm a conservative and I'm matter but I'm nice about it and map out about it BS so. He's quite cancer of that right Becky he is deal he is like the old school evangelical. And line of of. Think you know and and in some ways actually I think so inmates thought experiment. He is he clearly did not just not interested in the results the in Thelma is acting Adam inmates thought experiment pence is. Acts I I do think pence would be that best position on because he's vice president but light on I think keep perfectly. Represents. We air of the party it is in this way right. I think the chances of day snapped back. In the way that Claire was getting at where all the sudden like the party is abiding by that like 2012 post mortem. Do I think that like trump perfectly represents a future of the party no I think the future the party is something like patents which is site. Both super conservative. Clearly find that some of the norm breaking that trump has done. As he signed on for it right. But a little a little smoother around the budget you said that you thought politics with snap back is that just on trade are there other. Up retreat like. Free trade like this is now helping trump it's probably hurting his chance at reelection now because he's pursuing. Almost it was an on again off again I guess for Franzen with China again. But adding uncertainty to economy people are more pro free trade and they were before or some and its likening it. Exception I don't know. You know but immigration I think Republicans it's a maybe this does help us and in some respect begin now always when around people that like the fact that the Electoral College. And the senate. Tend to her word such the senate kind of rural. Largely white states it's important. And part of the reason why. The kind of you know. Emerging blue wave whatever theory was kinda wrong as far as Electoral College goes but. Is emerging democratic majority blended together. Different theories. But I know I mean. You're saying well parents kind of perfectly represents kind of the median. Of the Republican Party the Democratic Party right now primary right now. And the Canada probably best represents on average all threads the Democratic Party is problem like Pamela Harris or something. It's just down at 6%. You know I'm not sure that parents really has the force of personality. I think the one strain though that the Republican Party will definitely hold on from the compared to is populism. And I think pop isn't in general is on the rise in America. That the conservative form of populism has become sort of this like cultural. Pop cultural populism like the idea of you know protect our jobs from. Outside foreign forces Izzy. Populist spin is the is taken care of Hispanic populist thing of like the working people should be honored in this country right and I think that that's. That's a Smart tactic for Republicans go after because ARD have a foothold in rural areas and ex urban areas and so why not turn of saying that Iran more and more and then I think you could take us refine the economic summit perhaps that mean you couldn't. I don't know I'm not Smart enough on those to know what the more refined trump. Dish trade protectionist policy is probably something more in line like. What you know Democrats like Sherrod Brown compassion for for years and that's not really elect a Republican thing traditionally side and now. I mean what about somebody who basically held or promoted all the positions of trunk but was just team and quarter core presidential and our classic sense but that's with that like. To that totally obliterates the strength of tramp witches. Being that powerful voice. The people who perceive that they do not have any power so like half of his appeal. Yzerman has policies at all it's in him getting out there and raging. I think on a raids. Am. I think it did research those that sort of trumps. Offensives nests in the eyes of the laugh is central to his appeal on the right yes it. But I think it's an open question to what extent. Trumps quote unquote defensiveness on other stuff. And so on trade from from the point of view of the Republican elite or democratically right moron. Or dot net like just kind of some of the strong man. Sort of inclinations he has. So hyped. Posited. This very nice spreading off into the sunset moment for trump which is. Not the most likely way to his presence he would and raised friends who probably and either by losing. Reelection are winning reelection. And their lot of sub scenarios there right including losing by a lot Versa Naira lost he's contesting. Including winning reelection and then things go south the second term -- reelection he's got a 52% approval rating right you know I do think like. The scenarios where there. Democrats have agreed to when he 28 where. Elizabeth Warren or whomever else wins by six and a half points and they win this NN they haven't bigger majority in the house right. And they win Arizona are come within a point Texas or something right like that would look like that be a different scenario where I think they beat hamster PDA trump ism. Although it would be hard to save Elizabeth Warren is not a popular us. It wouldn't be hard to say that. If you. I was wholesalers of Warren is kind of may be. Using populism as a way to describe her want patients the democratic version of populism. Comes close release being like kind of it. I mean out anyone's really populist right 'cause like if you combine the kind of conservatism on social issues which he does and doesn't have. With the left ism on economic issues which that Republicans certainly don't have right then. And I'm not sure they're ready populist out their story both parties are half populist. I'm if you define populist of me I guess it's like when very make McGinest may define it right. You know some combination of conservative on certain types of cultural issues. And that permit the kinda masses over the elites but also leftists and certain kinds of economic issues I don't think any big party really offers that. Exactly. I mean buries a little closer his Bernie really does seem like he is. Against the system and the elites in the terms that he uses like they're like an inquiry is actually closer to being at. A true. Populist and been more in his attic or inflict a Democrat I don't think she's really that much populace and all. I think work true populist who meet its deficit. Is well know a whole episode on populism in America. I think that's around for a technician. Senate banking and thank you thank you cracked think ski on BankAmerica. No problem. Yeah my name is given terrific Tony each count is in the control room are intern is Jake are allowed you can touch right you know announced at podcast at 530 dot com you can also of course pre announcement any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show rivas a rating or review in the apple podcast store. Or tell someone about a. The listening and we'll. Oh.

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