FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Has public opinion shifted on impeachment?

The team also discusses the Democratic candidates' debate performance and plays a Thanksgiving game.
56:20 | 11/26/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Has public opinion shifted on impeachment?
Hello and welcome to the fact that he politics podcast on ABC news lives in today's episode. We discuss how public opinion has the vault in the wake of five days of impeachment hearings in the house. We also discussed who voters one last week's democratic primary debate. And we play a thinks giving game given that it's Thanksgiving this week. You're watching the fight dirty politics podcast on ABC news alive and here admitted do all that our. Editor in chief and it's over a hundred gardening it's it's going well Galen excited for Thanksgiving. I want people know sometimes we have like gay. Set piece like at Thanksgiving thing Cigna might seem like we from the segment the show earlier this is not as on the regular schedule folks it's a Monday. This is as current as any podcasts feeling listing this. On your car right to Thanksgiving is a normal fire 38 up to date podcast it's not you know that things your product. Also hear it doesn't seem to bother writer Clare Malloy on. Can you confirm for that if the month. And this. Mood. And also it as as managing editor of Mexico area I'm very good thank you. All right so let's talk about the impeachment hearings and what's actually began when one of our favorite questions good use of polling bad use of Paul. So last Thursday. They held published an article with the headline quote. Poll finds sharp swing in opposition to impeachment among independence. And it was a rite of Armenian and Emerson College poll showing a fourteen point swing. In the number of independents who support impeachment. From 48%. In October to 34%. Now some movement against impeaching the president. It also cited a Marquette University poll of Wisconsin and several listeners supported us and wanted to know if it is a good use of politics out. May start us off is it a good or bad use of poll. No it's usually directed to use. Individual pulsar write the headline what we what we lack is like. Actually oddly. As of this taping Monday morning like we said. There have not been like any big national high quality gold standard polls conducted in the last couple of weeks and yeah I think people are pollsters I know there are some out in the field we hear rumors about various things get tipoff some times. So we expect there'd be a couple of polls this week it's kind of logical time between that debate and Thanksgiving. So I would wait for those I would say like you know based and online polls based on the Emerson poll would you have another debate about. How good or bad Emerson is may actually have an okay pollster rating from 538 a lot of people would say they do weird stuff but you should interest them and all. But in any event. You do tend to trust the gold standard high quality polls more and we'll see what those say I mean it would say like. Obviously the numbers have not improved for Democrats on impeachment in the online polls. On that we've seen from its Sosa in and you govern other folks like that. That might be a little bit concerning maybe more though that concerning if you expected that hey. People tune into the hearings and then everything. Few people have an airmail changes. Although also you know those polls and a sort of like like last week's testimony from sun London's it just all like. It's all like. A lot precautionary director riddle of it but so before we move on to talk about impeachment polling more broadly. On this specific use appalling YUB. Advised people not to what advise the media more probably not to publish articles based on a single poll were encouraged listeners to be skeptical of articles are closest not just. Our single polish when it's also a subgroup of a single poll I think in general. In lesser aggregating over many polls and to note the Newman among independents African Americans are you know college could women or whatever else the more you slice and dice. The more you really really do need like many pols getting adequate sample size and so this is anxiously at the I think unites like. You know people who write about polls intelligently and people who read it not so intelligently they both tend to like. Think it's really sexy talk about the sub samples and usually that's noise if yours if you're. Talking about it the under person 1000 personable. And you need to agri credited data to really talk about that meaningfully of that Emerson College poll. Talk to 320. The margin of error on sent. I'm in terms of the margins looking at the march and write the spread between. Bryce Levy like twelve which looking like the number itself it's more like six right but the spreads and stuff either yes or no basically. Then it's like twelve point margin Amir and so it's not really. Terribly meaningful on that assumes that by the way that like you know everything apart from sampling error is going well in the poll. You know again it's perfectly possible to me if there is like rather bad news about both you know I'm future for Democrats elected don't really think. This him or simple should change people's opinion much. Or so. Bad news a polling in general don't write an article office and Paul especially don't write an article off one subgroup with an a single poll the let's move on and talk about. Kind of public opinion more broadly and how the hearings artifact so according to our impeachment tracker opposition to U. Impeachment and support for impeachment are now tied at about 46%. And at its high support for impeachment was more popular by five points. And and also support for impeachment among independents has fallen six or seven points promise higher according to attract and URD mention name. That polls are still out in the field and were waiting for some high quality polls but just based on the early hearings clear I mean what are some. Explanations. For. It seeming to be more like a stalemate after the hearings began her. Since before. Well for for one thing. The ways that information is disseminated about the impeachment hearings I think is really important. I'm and it's it's something I think we all like grunts are paying attention to politics kind of knew it was going to be really important this is all disseminated. We've talked before in this podcast about how. People watch clips appearing in hearings in the same way they watch Saturday Night Live now Ehrlich you know the late night shows. They watch discreet clips that are shared their FaceBook page YouTube or what happy. Ands. I think it was a really notable last week was how. Interrupt you rapid response operation of the trump team months basically basically the trump campaign was. Clipping videos of Jim Jordan doing his kind of auctioneer tock the work clipping videos of you know DeVon newness right like. As the case that old in the case of conservative media right where you put things and you distributed on for your trip paid immediate term we tweets that makes it way too. You know whatever whatever site. That's kind of always been the way it's disseminated with impeachment thing if such concentrated amount of content at a single thing. The shows are talking about it I mean I was listening to the trump. At clips of the trump call in show with fox with fox and friend it was for. Which I really just have recently and this just sounds sounds like the radio call in shows and mind you writing music 53 minute. Long interview with fox in France where he basically says so and so is is flat outline right unit and a modest powerful right if you're RD. Inclined. Forget the RD inclined to like tramp but if you're kind of in the middle and you're out weird you haven't been paying attention and where you happen to get your news or where your spouse gets their news and then they tell you is from. Fox or from certain FaceBook feeds it kind of makes a lot of sense that people are sort of like. Well I'm confused. And that's the point make it that. I think we talked last podcast effects there are decently damning under normal circumstances. That that the team that trump did something. Unethical. But the idea is to. Skew a lot of names talk about Ford countries. And unfortunately. You know. Even though our listeners meant to union at work right or. Followed on live blog a lot of people. Yeah I think that's totally right. And I think as Claire said we knew there would be kind of differing. You know. Perspectives on what happened and am in needs difference years. Just how different they wore madame is always amaze me where. Did day of the silent testimony where you have you know. The current ambassador to the EU accusing the president of engaging in quid pro quo. Am. You know there were screen shots of kind of Fox News gone round. And if you looked at it you would think oh. This testimony with really helpful to. So like just. Completely opposite side merging. Takeaways are presented in in each of these media sphere but the one thing it's Ike. I think this idea. That impeachment is being. Represented that it did the two sides of the IO in diametrically opposed ways has caught on a lot. And everybody is aware of it as they should be. But I think it's almost like. Having too much influence on how people are seeking impeachment now because like look to be clear. Pockets on land testified on Wednesday it right atom. We have. One poll conducted since then there was there was a duke a poll conducted. The twenty yet which I think it was a wins with that Wednesday that twice. So it's not like you can even really say oh in a row. Public opinion has bad entire nation shipped it reached a stalemate since the hearings we don't really know anything since that your Graham declare. I about that Emerson poll it was in the field from last Sunday until Wednesday sort what have captured reaction to. You've on the bench and Taylor at Sadr but not any of the Solomon testimony which I think was widely considered to be the most damning portrait so let's make back hobby out again that we are still waiting to find out. How public opinion has shifted after the totality here. Which isn't to say I think public opinion based on the silent testimony that's like the climax at these hearings will all of a sudden shift pro impeachment Adam if it. In three weeks where might actually matters kind of partisan stalemate that that would seem totally reasonable Adam. But we just don't know yet so I almost and and and we should get into this but like. That the idea that people are locked into their beliefs I think lots of people flocked to the media's factoring that into their coverage. But it's almost like. It's almost been an over correction way to idea that there are persuade a bull voters bill we have data showing that there are. Is being lost a little thing and I mean how big of a pool is the purse readable. Voter. So we did this poll with Texas pan am which asked people basically about their beliefs about impeachment and then basically house or more about there. About those beliefs and apple and I'm this great article tech site. From a mile tops in the Anwar Ron. Our. Said they were not us or certain art like not certain rights of people who you could probably classify. You know reachable right and then. That group the group that that media's persuade a bowl. Has characteristics that you would associate with more personal persuade voters and that group is. Less likely to identify. As liberal or conservative. And I am that are less likely to be. Tuning in closely at these hearings as you would expect right people lasting gates politics the most. The people must engage in politics and the most partisan. I am. And might. The Republican leaning so that group the persuade it will group is about. Half democratic leaning Republican. Right the Republican meaning it's part of that group. Is more likely to believe that China underlying facts. Impeachment case am. You know when you when you get down to it you know you'll you end up but it quote unquote only about 1012%. Of Republicans who follow on that this. Persuade among group. But like. That's actually a meaningful. Portion of the electorate you know on one and four overall Republicans Democrats independents that's really mean faults. Yes sir. Even getting due. And it must respond house appalling thing yet but does it matter rightly yeah I was gonna impeach him. The senate. I mean if if things here's where it's so what he's gonna get impeached. It's really where it really is potentially inching its is removed from office sitting here. Monday morning on Monday on Monday into why they are giving actually in the office taping this. No sitting here I'm saying like the senate probably will not vote to remove him from office but. Well OK it's back like that slim there's very shallow pool. A persuade voters really turns against them having something happen like that seems on an outside chance that that pool would grow big enough. So then it's like looking at war what are these numbers even mean. And to me what they mean is there just another metric to talk about. How good or pack at position is trump in as the heads in Q this election can't actually know. We have at this point couple months until the beginning of the primary season so then things aren't while. Where's it going to be in. July right. Where he's at the Republican national or rockets are August August and Charlotte, North Carolina we're going to be. Theater praise rocking chairs and airports. But how are people gonna feel about trump in. August I don't now that's a long time away so I'm kind of like. To go back to Mike and my finger refrain really matters now that but it that you and is trying to link. Like the context of this is. There's there is potential. For this group of smoker governor elect. Really move certain senators. On the margins like people Republicans who Felix ifs there senate seats and become unsafe. But I find that political scenario really hard to. In vision. Ready to Alter those same. Republican senators are currently worried about a primary challenges right. Ya know I look I I agree with all that I do you think like the right reading of this date where the way I was reading data was. It doesn't seem like they're not persuade of all Republicans. Some like change what the likely outcome is in the senate as Claire said but it does seem like there are to change there are out there does seem like there are not to change I think. Just like the overall political con tours of impeachment no matter what happens how it's remembered an airport as clips and how it affects me when he if it does. Yeah I I think of it if you passed bulls. Republicans and more particularly Democrats on truth serum like. Is what's happening right now about possibly removing the president from office or about how impeachment affects the rest of the 20/20 election. It's more of the latter think that people are focused on. Realistically. Don't put it but I also think it's just important for like the country. How all of this. Whole episode is remembered. Am so an accent said it matters I think. You know when it's in ten years you know it's it's remembered like the Clinton impeachment. That's very different benefits remembered as of this was shameful episode and and that includes on republicans' path boosted by. And you're saying that the Rivet beat Clinton impeachment is remembered is that there was a backlash to Republicans because it didn't seem like it was justified is that. Yet but actor Ashton Eaton broadly speaking the American people. You know we're against the impeachment so. Considering everything we've just sad I mean even looking out the polling which is not complete in the aftermath of the hearings. Trump approval is still at a round negative twelve and a significant majority around 70% of Americans think trumpet did something raw. And so that's. That information is from the same period in time as this impeachment polling that is a bit more is closer than it was at the start. Certainly why. Has me be in support for impeachment over the first few days of the hearings declined. But trump is still as unpopular as ever. I mean I'm such and disputing them premise here on the really haven't updated to say very much about the trajectory of numbers on impeachment remember the overall shift. In Trump's cruel ratings win the Ukraine story broke was maybe appoint an half he went from 43% approval but maybe 41 half and parallel increases disapproval rating right. So even something that big only just numbers by point and a half the nave. A minor shift in. Impeachment. Views would need to be shifted by some fraction of that right. Gallic I mean I think there are like a certain number of voters either individually collectively you kind of are calling it. A draw and a sense they might say that this conduct scenes. Pretty bad. On their hand a kind of expected. Pretty bad conduct of this type from this president. And I'm not sure I'll. Having all these congress people and on my TV. All the time and are having an election in a year anyway Rican vote this guy out of office or keep an independent we want to do right and so. So you know. The fact that you have a decorating its roughly unchanged or probably is down a tiny bit from where it was pre Ukraine. Doesn't this under the public's in different mean that it can be different threats like pulling in in different directions right you know I do think that. You know maybe this means that if Democrats a tried to impeached over. Muller. May be could have been damaging I don't know right because that theory was handy. This is unpopular but when people hear the full case in front of congress than it will shaft right Emily theory which is much ballot obviously is that when. Close comes up for it and things will shift right but like that was kind of elected to part. Theory about again for all we know they'll be some are calling national polls come out when we finish this episode in the shall be shift and then this will all seem kind of kind of irrelevant but yet I mean in some sense like that it. The scoreboard its most important as far as when he when he is troops approval rating and that has been and largely unchanged there is something by the way. Interesting about impeachment in general where. The people you need to convince if you're trying to impeach someone. Our. Our people who are more likely to might not like politics right. There and they're people who who aren't. That attend the politics are people probably. Think politics over all are pretty distasteful. And yet you're mechanism for trying to convince them. Is political right impeachment is a political process and so there's. There's a foundational part of this that I think may be worked against Democrat Adam where like okay we're gonna make the case against trop how we gonna make that. By having a bunch of members of congress speak on a committee it's just like you know. I NC yet know no one looks great in their five minute question time where their dislike eating grand standing courageously. Ask they're like filibustering. It's this kind of like. Allen and exported to mind that there were some fairly significant shifts abuse on impeachment. Early on this story on the seem to be kind of two waves of that one when policy came out in favor which we've numbers among Democrats and them one win just the kind of somewhat extraordinary nature of the story. Broken trump released that it. So call transcript which was not. Which is actually quite damning right and so forth. And that caused shifts among independents what could say at like the public has fairly had fairly Smart Pryor's about this re elect well okay. You know ordinarily buy these defenses out of there probably was a quid pro quo weaving kind of trumps transfer panic panic and strongly or one and so therefore. Like. How much new information. Is being revealed is that question because people you know it's not like this is the president had a reputation are being squeaky clean. And it's not like the first week of the story went well for hammer that there are many coherent defenses and so in some sense like. The public Qaeda may be already assumed. The worst. And so therefore like hearing the worse actually happened might not shift the numbers that much do you thing. I think about this this morning so. Policy and shift in democrats' current strategy is essentially. Not. To wait. For that various arguments in courts the play out about testimony and evidence atom. So right now there are witnesses who are refusing because there's evidence in contention that the courts are adjudicating whether that has to go to. Wednesday day. Can never have to testify Sutter and I am. Do you guys think Democrats are right and not. To wait for that the more the more you find out about this to more it seems like there was a story. From our colleagues at ABC news. Just recently about how apparently Democrats have like video of trump. Video and recordings of trump and Giuliani. And then there was a story in New York Times recently to it that. Apparently there's that there was this email chain involving more mania and legal counsel about constructing. Comment. Post fact rational legal justification for withholding the military aid to Ukraine in other words it seems like. There's a high chance that there's a lot of damning evidence still undiscovered do you think Democrats are right not to wait that I'm not happen. Yes. Because the people at that that are basically happened testified who would be potentially inching arm of Cheney's chief of staff. And Baltic Sea yeah scored nationals farmers national security advisor. Mold they have a hard time seeing it at I don't know what his testimony would be like Bolton is the potential like. You know wild card potentially damning person. But Albania RD their majority lake reporting of him Eddie white house press conference. Saying that the did this yet and sort of being Blase about it so. Ike and and then you if you wait for a court ruling your opinion about the courts and in the issues obscurity and further. I think they are probably right. The Democrats in understanding let's compress this timeline let's make the public remember what the story is let's not have them lose the thread. It's like those it's like those. T want to 101000 like word. Old school Esquire piece Billick has a middle 3000 words section it's like about the meaning of the their life and liked the authors marriage. Ordeal watt like a really tight 4000 words like Fuzzy jumpy story and Alice a question that's what you want if you're trying to impeach someone. Which will happen anyway because. Democrat ever again over the party line. To your point Claire weaves and many times that the parties are small C conservative risk averse and there's just more risk associated we have dragging things out even if we don't know for sure that things would move against them in terms of public opinion. And and the other thing is. There's a whole year long campaign that's going to be waged against president trump on behalf of the Democrats and if things come out during that time. They can just kind of release them into the court of public opinion and hope that they helped them win the 21 election. Which in their mind is more important anyway yeah let's let's remember that. Among many other things. Motivating this impeachment right. Most important which is the president's conduct among other things Pelosi is trying to solve a problem that she had weird. Progressives we're very eager to move on impeachment. Some other people are and Ukraine gave her enough ammunition where she could minimize the the political downside if you look at the president's approval rating than you know let's just samples indicative or something man. And there hasn't been much downside does this really mean that it's easy upside. Case to make we start out with opinion being strongly against impeachment and now we have kind of a tie here may be in error plurality in favor. Which is as these things go I mean that's you know as a president who and the popular wrote that an election. Three years ago once a to have like a plurality. Near majority if they were impeachment and some senses it generally. Remarkable step especially for president in his first term and human election in less than a year now and so you know maybe Pelosi is like you know what. We will kind of record these deeds for history it'll be kind of partisan vote the senate will do what it wants a by the way does not seem like. Cory Gardner and Susan Collins and all these people are necessarily doing themselves any favors by defending trump right and then we'll have you actually plan to in the bases is. Happy that we. That we impeached him and then they can get really mad at you swing state senators who were Republicans who voted against impeachment and her removal. And condone a lot of money. Ignorance happy we have a speak other issue or big primary fight. You're watching the sanctity of politics I asked on BC news line. Coming up we're gonna play at Thanksgiving seen dean and talk about what the democratic primary candidates should be thankful for this thanks. Thousand. We're back with the fight dirty politics podcast on ABC news line. We've been discussing how public opinion has shifted after five days impeachment hearings in counts. He also talked a little bit about the democratic primary debate last week. Ever gonna wrap things up win some stunned we've got a speedskating team's scheme. What should each of the democratic primary contenders be thankful for this Thanksgiving before. We get to you that game we actually have some new data on last week's democratic primary defeat as you probably know we've been doing a panel poll with its errors. And asking viewers what they thought about the candidates before and after. The debates so. According to this poll mica was there clear winner. Yes. But it article is that. Relatively clear winner I would today was Pete the project. From Indiana whose. Tied warrant for the best raw debate performance. Rating average rating from respondents but he went into the date. Into the debate where. Moderately worse favorability ratings that marxists are over performed as ratings by. More than anyone else booted judge gains of more potential supporters so we that it says ask this question. Who were you can who were you considering voting for I am share considering supporting but it judge jumped from 26%. At 32% and that six point jump is bigger than one child says. We do judge also I think increased. His average electability. Ratings that week that if that's everybody what do you think the chances are that if this person has the nominee they would beat from. Going to intended to be. On average of respondents thought the judge ID 46%. Chance at beating trump after that made. Respondents thought on average the agent at a 50% chance of beating from. So yeah it's sort of like in all the metrics we to judge I am idol. I'm a quarter from a kilometer by. Was I mean was that in line Claire and name where door impression watching the debate. Money. It was a wee it in some ways it was because it was such a polite debate. I thought a lot of interest in people. Did well in it right it wasn't it to me it wasn't light I asked far and away like I was actually interested. In particular to CU what are what this poll came up with because I was like. I'm of people did Brea well. Do you see it reflected I mean you know someone like no I didn't think Andrew Yang asked everyone in the debate but watching -- Yang he continues to. And Ezra not pandering I know people you know being gang hasn't gracious thing he is one of those people where it's like. You can see he's like a high school basketball player gets really. You can really see improvement from the beginning in the season's the end like he is answering questions much better. And it and on a broader breadth of of subjects. I thought you know Booker in Klobuchar. Were Mort talkative than sort of impression making during the debate but I think that Egypt has had. And in addition to you know he's like Warren. Like Sanders to a certain extent but it just never has like a bad debate right he's not a person who has. The gaps that Biden does he doesn't come and get lost. In the muck like some of the other candidates so we yet a pretty good debate but also he's been writing frankly immediately to you right he and it goes along with. You know good poll numbers in Iowa pretty steadily they're climbing potentially in New Hampshire so there's this kind it. Interest surrounding Buddha gentlemen I think there's a you know that helps amplify and sort of believe it what was a good debate performances out. Yeah I mean you can press we want in your feeds in kind of here are opposed to be impressions I think I said that I thought. Booker Klobuchar and maybe Bernie have the strongest performances. Men thought that project was. Benefited from the lack of attacks against them it was not. Especially great but I don't want prom like being a reporter. Covering this is that we see all the debates we here to cancel the time we kind of soak in all the comics and was about people. But good touch and Warren who also got high marks have been I think maybe along with Booker the most consistent performers in these debates. And you know if you're a regular even high information voter then. The maybe you're not engaging relative to some standard expectations saying Al but it took him more and they seem really Smart. And they always seem to not totally flub. These answers I like Booker to you know which we can go for more than one person. You know so if you look across the children to serve right now. People are actually very consistent in the grades they get from debate to debate. In some aims to say like yes these are things that tend to help. Rich hatch and heard Biden for example. Although obviously we haven't seen. Terry of the big ships in the top line numbers as a result Mr. Big got somewhere at mediocre ratings. Only on cable during a busy news week people degree for Thanksgiving I guess right. The narrative going you can see in in the polling data the narrative going into that that they. Has an effect on how people see the debate I think one read of it is certainly. What name assignment as like I think that a judge a warrant artistic pattern debaters and pot and write I think we have enough evidence to say that. But I also think who like. Booker has been great and almost every to pay. But doesn't really come out on top in these numbers I think in part just because he what he goes in has a lowered their. People are really focusing on him what about after the facts so have we seen that. How the respondents today's panel poles feel about the different candidates performance ends up being reflected in the national polls after the fact. Well that's a hard question after we certainly do with the first debate right. And not coincidentally. That was also the debate where we solve the clearest. Winner in the polling data. Immediately after debate and he saw the biggest change in the horse race. And I terrorists or people hurt yarn ever thought like you could say. On the one hand okay Warren has had consistently good debates and must consistently climbing in the polls and that's anti date track together. You know. Does the fact that like. I'm making this out but you know. If book her got on average. Debate raging you know. Point three points higher than Harris DC back kind of thing reflected in the polls not greatly it takes a being mean and. Bridget I just trying to point out booted judge remains in the single digits in national polls rate an acute this is the uses. Thus far a very specific Iowa New Hampshire. White people white people phenomena like and you know while he did very well there dwell in it. The debate according to our poll. It's reflected in national numbers it's parents. And study in like. Well we have and again just we have and many impeachment polls we haven't had many democratic primary polls that are here bully. Equality either recently very true but also declares point like even and in our in our survey with its it's the share saying they would consider voting for vintage jumped from 26%. To 32%. 32%. As an all that gray let's say it's like. So roughly speaking. If you like Tenet take half that number that Connor flex their support decently well all right so if you were to get a terrific point shift. Nationally by the way that might be just because the debate like you all we're saying a might be because of the median area to getting a lot more attention right. So like it wouldn't surprise me and I don't know anything about his goals that are up earned and can about the map I have. You know if I inside him gas on such as trade. But you off he's been at seven or 8% in these polls recently. It wouldn't shock me off when McCain is he subject to more news coverage if he got up to. Eleven or twelve. In the and people start to vote double digits for race. You know I mean the numbers are pretty robust in Iowa New Hampshire you know actually kind of I'm working on our. Polling averages for the model right in like but it's it's actually. The way we do we are turning for house of facts and you're trying to figure out exactly how much to wage a recent data verses earlier data he assisted with a little bit better. In Iowa New Hampshire that would have thought intuitively meaning that like in a pretty state victory upward when people are exposed to him. Some Democrats are like and some really don't like him but like you know. I think I guess I think he's going to arise. A little higher. Prediction and prediction I mean you RT saw that coming into this debate some people describing it as like a top four you know. I guess privilege and all of this Iowa and capture people's court for the sometimes when families gather around the table with Thanksgiving each person takes a turn it seeing what they're thankful for. So we are going to do that for the democratic primary field. And this was Mike an idea if you bought it he gets the credit if you hate it he gets back I'm thankful either way like sleep in thanking them I'm thankful for that positive reinforcement. We noticed it beggars can't beach users so imagine. They are gathered around a table the democratic primary candidates Saturday. Hypothetical Thanksgiving feast what should each candidate be thankful for and we're only going to do the top seven because we don't have enough time to go through all eighteen. So let's go down the line. And organized they eat canned it should be thankful for and were going to begin. Acts the bottom so number seven in line and it is ready for events. Michael Bloomberg. And who. Don't meet. As spoke may remember when he was mayor of New York he'd like to speak in Spanish and god. That I guess nickname yet it's also funny twittered. That is like acting. I. Meego a you know about this OK so. We're just gonna gonna it will start what you might it will Dow malign and Europe to make a big argument just kind of Walt like. One thing that they should be thankful for and then if there's significant disagreement we can pass but will go through these relatively quickly Michael what should liberty thankful. Four this was not honestly struggled with it's. His EE easiest when I'm not much her well that's okay. He's gonna spend a lot of his own money what should really be thankful for that he. Okay money money. Money client money hit me. For the sake of panic. Coverage in major publications about his campaign expects a strong word but like but like. This is implausible on many levels. Ranging from the fact that a large majority Democrats they don't want him running the fact he's skipping. Meetings losing. The early states to the fact that there's no apparently for Nicole for the debates because he's not actually trying to raise individual donations. You know all these things that the fact that people really overeat the importance of paid advertising usually in politics I'm awful lot to be thankful for. So issue that deeply thankful he's taken that seriously. By the kind of financial system despite those challenges I mean if you goaded. You want a Scottish team segment should we have like some bumper music for like this got a team that's innate should be thankful just to back pipes and. It doesn't and. The god damn Scottish teens. Predicted. Give Mike Bloomberg. Basically the same chants of when the Gregg nomination as Bernie Sanders 13% for Bloomberg the exit from for Bernie. That is. Ridiculous stop citing market OK guys creed that's ridiculous Michael Bloomberg is not is like that within their court at the garden mission as Bernie Sanders Iraq I'm gonna wrap this up. I'm gonna think that Michael Bloomberg should be thankful for we disconnection from that's what is this thing. We can combine art that one's slots the leaked this connection money and well next. Which brings us to you might like. I'm the right literate and damaged equipment that the okay. Micah back here and we are now and never sex and it is Andrew Yang Sy I loaded this game on on Twitter which I'm not gonna take him. Answers from under that plan and it but this one from Twitter and I am. Such out of their house on Twitter who answered what's an entry and be thankful for them. And humbled by. How in the last name now with easy to earn and I think that. Well you know. If I'm they follow that I think my answer is intriguing should be very thankful for Internet culture. Because. That's really what's believed him along right yes the Yang -- hash tag but also the idea that. I do think like his idea of universal basic income. Is the kind of each walked key thing that in certain circles. Political Internet political Twitter whatever you say. Like caught fire and made him this certain kind of folk hero he made these YouTube videos that kind of put him is like. You know like the cool there millennial media kind of group like goofy but not panic candidate. And nice you know so I would say in cultures what. Injuries. Are the next one it is Connell Harris is might ask of us. I visit the hardest one that not the answer is not sure that not be thankful friend Clarence. It seems like her husband is really support it. Name. She should be thankful that no one is an A dominant position that's because this and this also applies to them accord brokered with the we're not talking about right because now like if you only have to. It 20% to win an early state Arabia hits a 14% to finish and make good third place quote unquote. Then that does open the possibility of someone making a late surge and I think that's actual like a little bit. Underrated she could be thankful for the sciences the California. If she registered she yes it's here. So this kind of goes back before she actually announced her candidacy rep I guess she should be thankful for senate hearings. To yeah. Moving on to the next run of we have Pete projects. Mica what should keep you think. I think in my mind keep the answer to this month moms. As it feels like. The average income caught on thanks the moms everywhere am but I think what his campaign actually it's like those a lot of credit to its like sexism and racism or worry about sexism racism in the electorate. And therefore the search for. Today. Day compelling engaging. What. They are more people do male who object to gay nominee then that person of color women. This I mean we can do all we can do like six hours on the stuff yeah but I and I don't think I don't think we like it. This exercise requires us to weigh them against each other like to me I'm just looking at like. Why the people who reject I think has been might. Really. He's really great debates he's really laughs but you think there's a little bit up like I think something and I'm with this it's a search firm. That'll bomb. And yet charm right but like. As that you know and also all much more impressive Reza so set. So what I'll say that the judge should digit his campaign should be thankful for is the media. Because I think he is. New. Which brokers not yeah. Young. Has kind of a story. And also frankly has had a campaign has had a very savvy media strategy making him available it to introduce this. Truly it's here. Mayor. Not here in South Bend around me. With ten people with us on how collect. Known for Notre Dame let me note that the idea that that they really have in the past few months. Built this person up from relative obscurity. Is a feat. And I think it's it's it you know it's it's a combination of things but its media strategy and the fact that he is you know attractive story for me a partner name. He should be thankful that the Democrats. Over a some and it how far left. The electorate was cause a second search seems to be brought about in part because he simply said a contaminant. Run to the left ran there right rather Elizabeth Moore numbered Sanders and feel a bit more center left and that seemed to. Work but I think event brokerages should be thankful for is actually a specific person working on the campaign and that is. Let's math is so that's kind of goes rip what Claire was saying by. From the beginning readers and British agents had somebody in charge of group has communications was interested in putting him in front of everybody and getting a profile in every magazine and getting people to talk about and and as we learn from I mean even just trounced campaign in 2016. One of the biggest challenges challenges in running in a really broad field is getting immediate pay attention to year. And from the beginning he kind of made that entrants like commuter pay attention to him and he's been served well. Our. Next candidate up for Thanksgiving. Game is Bernie sent. She summons in the you know perhaps some kind of breaking. I think that Sanders should be thankful for. Six you think that they fall together. One is. I think they like doctors he had a health scare recently but combining into that is. Brand loyalty and kind of link. The willingness of people to you know like that under underdog story Sanders has been doing pretty well since he had the heart attack and I'm. Shock to ease he LaGrange so who. Steady an in things. And I think that has stemming casinos and talent bank himself. Because he really just harrah's. Built on. Facts reputation that he he forged in the American imagination into only sixteen. And panic coming back from a heart attack and making it about. You know to health care system and I you know I have access to this but what happens when you don't like. In a kind of a kind of fits with what he has always talked about and so I think. You know brand loyalties can what he he's passed before. I veteran now and that's not like Sanders at the gender that loyalty does apartment. But it's been amazing. Oh meant support. I think he should be thankful to Alexandria 'cause accord does. McCain is. There inflection points in campaigns and you had Bernie have a heart attack and also has poles were slump and a little but it. You know Bernie's -- senate to move that much of their pretty steady but they've been down a little bit. And also this is like still during like kind of Warren's. Surge may be detail in risk and turning to this musical is about Warren. But that's like a big. Shift in there and they gave way again we see actually endorsement kind of do matter but gave way to this narrative like Bernie was coming back. Certainly it meant that you did not have a consolidation. Progressives around Elizabeth Warren. Which seemed. Very possible if you dispense with hindsight bias right she's gone from 8% to 23%. In the polls over the course of a few months right. You know she's well had a burning the polls it would have been easy. It kind of factual world to say okay well now this when a USC says you know it's sorry Bernie but like. We really think Elizabeth Warren can win its time to unite progressive movement in I'm endorsing her instead right and that didn't happen kind of I think opened up. A whole new chapter now where Warren is facing pressure from Biden tease me. For brew to touch on her right and Bernie on her left and now it's kind of it is currently. Four way race regular probably narrative is like. Closer to truth and falls are resistant for awhile but like it's definitely. There's a lot to be except for it. All right so what to wrap things up and as a somewhat of patrol as answers are to steal a phrase from declared acne. But I think that Bernie Sanders should be thankful for the Democratic Party apparatus. And that is because wait for it. I think part of the reason he was able to develop his brand and become so popular is because of how sparse the 26 team field was because the Democratic Party decided to coalesce around Hillary Clinton. Animals crown her as the nominee. Before there was any like real competition in the field and I think if you had a deep field in point sixteen on the democratic side the story of Bernie Sanders would be extremely different. Let's move on to you Elizabeth Warren has become down the stretch makers your efforts again sure what's it was report. I think Warren should be deeply thankful for how on creative and stuck the sanders' campaign has been. Where Sanders came into this campaign what was the number he had and went sixteen to Yemen over 40% 43. In that you could imagine. Alternate realities where Sanders comes in and as much closer to what he had 26 and and that kind of 15%. Yes now. Early on I think we are asking a lot of questions about why Sanders what's an. Doing more it. Maybe mend some fences with the democratic establishment that kind of branching out beyond its base acting the fact that Sanders never did act. Left this gap that we are very smartly exploited. Clara. I think that Warren has. Clinton voters buyer's remorse to thank. This Thanksgiving and what I mean by that is. I think if U talked mean. Eight months ago I would have said it is apt it is absolutely insane you think that reform would be in the top two years. Democratic front runners but I think the reason that she has been given such a great chance is. That. Those who voted for Clinton in the primaries a certain subset white college educated. Saw the wave that trump was received and that. Parts of Bernie Sanders message resonated with people. And they sort of became aware of like the disconnect perhaps that they had with more progressive policies there are more populist moment whatever it is. And I think. War and marries together the sort of establishments. The near this hurts Smart Smart can't kind of thing. But with the policy proposals and all that but she also has this pretty strong Sanders asked. She handed the former sooners as a candidate. Kind of devotion to let's regulate capitalism let's create a new let's let let's destroy some of the system Writely lets. Let's change things here. And I think that that particular alchemy. Only occurs. Because. Clinton lost to trauma and because. People looked back and saw that Sanders was resonating. On some of those issues the chopper has been with us so kind of complicated answer but that's what. ID think. Armed warrants be thankful to herself or two member team up with that. I've got a plan for that slogan. I think the kind of planted ninety in voters' heads that was. Very prominent in the coverage of her for many months and kind of support to these other things that were negative like the folk artist stuff. You know I think she's struggled a bit more recently in part because it's receiving a bit now people are like oh okay she just one of their super liberals. Vs the notion of like look I mean a lot of Democrats are not. Literally driven by like poring over policy papers and listening to like the fox podcasts and like. Pursing things in great detail right they like him in the broad auspices of checking. Boxes a policies that they think are progressive and good. And you know someone who just seems Smart and competent and capable and a contrast to trump which Warren kind of does and -- to tune in his own way can and does the like. But you know the fact that like. There seems few lot of back and forth between Warren and Buddha church in terms of voters considering boat is important to thinking about how actual voters. See the Canucks and ideologies and anyway I thought when. Which was kind of able to Ryan in. Both lanes a little bit kind of both. Both the left lane in the and the pragmatists I don't know you wanna call it neo liberal whatever lane I think that helped Warner now she's struggling kind of having typically have been. More arts to wrap up with Warren I would say she should be thankful for college educated white voters and to some extent their over representation. In like mainstream culture in cities in media. At Sutter. I think. More attracted to her because of a lot of the reasons that the two review. Claire and I have described and were able to elect Parker front and center in a way because of how much sway they have over culture. It's also true but it yes are you thankful her Iowa became O'Brien critics such an Warren yeah met. Although yeah warrants during and it's for now. That's been a better bet for Warren. Rapping on Joseph by Mike which can be thankful. This is an very creative answer but I think it's them or 1 am he should be thankful for trump. Oh. I let's come back. Its usage of and should be thankful for Barack Obama yeah I thought that's what you're gonna say that's yeah me. To explain. For things can't I don't think you need run death. Of Abdullah he's. Name. For African American voters is so far have been at least older African Americans. Pretty built to. I'm president Barack Obama as well because that combines. All that's right. It's the reason that he has African American voters to rethink work but it's also the reason that. In here is like mid to late seventies he's even running for president because meat and vice president of the United States and even though he seems like an odd fit for this moment in the democratic party's history. He has the opportunity to. I think that's Altria but I also think. I am beat the finding in many ways feature of this primary so far has been the conversation and debate around electability. And that has also been. Biden's chief advantage that shows up in every poll that's conducted about it. Five in rates most highly and how voter in who voters to compete trump. And I think the a sash not session but like. That how badly Democrats wannabe trump and that they think Biden as the most electable I think explains it would be chopped cooked but his support. And wit that that is a wrap to our Thanksgiving game happy Thanksgiving to all. And Austin think unique. Thank you grant date ski and happy Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving think you might gasp thank you Galen my name is Dillon drew Tony chow is in the control room are in turn is Jake Arlo. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast at 530 dot com. You can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show leave as a reading or review in apple podcast store. Let us know what you're thankful for. Maybe this podcast or tell someone about us mourners at home sitting around a table at Thanksgiving and you hear people Sharon all kinds of use you you. And you hear people making all kinds of bad use is appalling tell them that they should listen to this pod cast. To get some good news is appalling make it real now and we'll see. Yeah.

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