Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: The tokenization of the veepstakes
Hello and welcome to the factory politics podcast I'm deal injury. After missing self imposed deadlines more than once it walks like Joseph Biden well actually announce his running me this week. We'll have an emergency podcast for you when that does happen but today we're gonna take a final look at some respect. We're also gonna take it deep dive into the polling comparisons between the 20s16 election and when he. Hillary Clinton led president trump in the average of national polls for new beat all of 2016. And then lost the election. Biden has been consistently leading as well his lead. At least so far looks pretty different from Clinton's we'll discuss how and what implications might be. And accurate muted due that our editor in chief and it's over Haiti and I hate dealing power you. Car and got that was pretty hesitant Perrier Europe and a tight choked. Yeah I choked in the intro. All the press all our listeners. For a lot of our audience while they may be curious about Joseph Biden's do you keep X there be more excited war. I different announcement this week which I think you're now are ready to share went our audience of what is that announcement. So barring. The extremely unexpected events which you always have to. Say in these troubled times writers an earthquake in North Carolina today for example. But we will release our presidential forecasting model. Oh I'm Wednesday morning. All right there you haven't you heard new numbers 97%. Chance that some will count probably not examiners and sent and of course will have a model talk for you all when that happens also here at us is senior politics writer parity in Jr. an apparent thank you listen do. New terror and also here at last it is politics editor sir frost and and Hayes are in. And Claire is out today. So let's began win as Biden's VP pick and we can keep it short because as I mentioned we aren't aren't out an emergency podcast when it comes out and we just don't have to wait longer until we actually house speculation at this point maybe only work. So much but Perry can you lay out for us what this state. Of the road race two DEA. Biden's running mate books like at this point in time. So the so we don't we don't know much is a real answer this question is like Wii you know one person decides. And the rest of us are sort of watching that we think it'll happen later this week I would assume kind of digital timing is had it around Thursday or Friday. Going in the conditions I think it he later in the week. So we'll be announcing this podcasts over me look at India. And in terms I think the general thinking is that. Tom Malloy Harris is the favorite to be chosen ends. It will be surprising if it's somebody else although it's you're talking low for regatta on. It appears that Gretchen wit murder flew to Wilmington to meet with the vice president if you you know. Seven days or so ago and I think there is a possibility of other picks Susan Rice Christian Widmer. That was of the warrants I think that is not deathly tunnel Harris let thinks he's the person. I think most of pundit talker see in the politics people immediately will think it'll be. And so name and Sarah. As you know members of you know people who were qualify it as media people. Do you agree do you think that it's will be surprising if it's not comma Harris at this point I think it's really hard to tell right. You know one thing about it if he picks is that like there's usually some element. Deception intercept sought centerpiece if he's a subterfuge. So those words you don't pronounce or perhaps. If you go it was when the obvious choices and he won it creates and suspense make it seem like this person is newsworthy when their announced straight. Kick the tires in case there are a last minute. Issues. So you could have a world where it's been terrorists for a long time in they're going through the motions right you can also the world where you continuing doubts about the obvious. Alternative for alternatives and that's why you're you know you're bringing other people into Wilmington and putting out trial balloons in clearly it serves the interest. Of Joseph Biden or any presidential nominee. To. What's the name out bears see how interest groups react and see what rises to the top right. You know it officers the interest of the candidate. As well right like you know Karen bass has a higher profile now that she might have right. So it's I am I think it's just theory hard to read. I'd be curious what Perry considerate thing. Twomey. Some of the doubts. Expressed about terrorists by a Biden allies like Chris Dodd word. Surprisingly. Candid. Not quite to the planet burning your bridges don't like seemed like more candid and these remarks are ordinarily but it still doesn't tell you whether like. Biden himself has reservations or whether they're kind of vocal factions within. Within the Biden. Camp that might have objections I I think it's really hard to tell what's Conan. And what your hurt you're there is that. Chris Dodd Politico among other things that karma Harris didn't shower any remorse for her attacking Biden's position on busting. In the first primary debate. There was blow back essentially. Activists commentators saying that I was sexist criticism. And kind of cobble harasses people then defended hurt you. The Biden camp and it created you know a bit about a fox hole a couple weeks ago. So you know. The question here I guess error is. Does it seem like that has. The potential to actually shape the outcome. Selection process. Well. What's been interesting about it is in the political article where it's kind. Because he's saying old you know now we can't trust her because of the way in which she attacked I didn't first to eight. She's not loyal. That's really open an avenue for someone like caring past season and it. He put into the national spotlight someone who doesn't have as big of a national profile. But in going back to needs point does that actually mean that the pride in camp isn't considering Harris is actually you know and now I. The new magazine hippie peace over the weekend capped the final stretch and there is this line where. Essentially you know all the nominees whether it's Whitner flying in to talk with Biden and Kennedy the finals Andy. They then have to watch all this coverage TV advisors and friends of either themselves or by it and in talking out and Dini you know his supposed to thinking. And you know decides and I think we're seeing tester and it's like can you find holes in some races Reza me who hasn't been you know who hasn't held elected office. And it's again Donna this kind of brush. Bass and for better or worse right but it's so there's an underscore other harris' candidacy in all this is in jeopardy. I mean pay do you think that ultimately this conflict with and Biden's batting circle. You know matter is for harris' chances and or if not. Matters for how the ultimate VP pick is perceived by the public or is this just inside baseball that were packed. And they get it depend love who the pick Exley is so communities Harris I think it'll be forgotten in the does not acting. So I mean is worth thinking about what Crist seem to be imply. Lights if Krista. Older white man. He is going around saying that we couldn't pick Tomlin Paris because black woman to see was too mean to Joseph Biden when discussing busting. That's not great for Joseph Biden's campaign I don't think that is that will be in the coverage if he does not pick Tom Lee Harris. He will be in the coverage in a few days went matter electorally I don't know. I don't think this is going to be aptly explained. If if the creek the chief rationale for not picking Harris seems to be his she was too mean to Joseph Biden a racial issue that's not. That's gonna be discussed is going to be controversial note argue personally I think they'll be not a good look for Joseph Biden to do it down when their other reasons not to pick harassed. Particularly affected she ran for president was now actively good candidate edit. But I think dead the damn reason itself in sort of lingering bitterness from net in the idea she didn't apologize. I guess I'll be honest here I worry this process. And NASA's Joseph Biden or not I don't think which he picking the most pliable black woman according to Chris Dodd Ed Rendell. And that's kind of where I wonder where were are now it's like Karen bass does not seem too ambitious. She's the anti Camdessus very talented and very Smart I don't think the goal picking her should be. Accomplice to properties we can't picture I I found this process we've really distasteful. In the way on Biden's. I don't know Biden is doing that was certainly Ed Rendell and Chris Dodd who are people of Joseph Biden knows fairly well. Have have made comments and I have been uncomfortable with. Now. I guess the other part of this process that I found to be strange and I'll discuss this very. Commenting is heart to talk about is in 2008. The real choices for Barack Obama worked Tim Kaine. Evan Bayh and Joseph Biden. White male like down into dozens sixteen everyone knew Hillary Clinton would pick a mania so in both those processes you had a sort of sort of effect of Ian reality. They're only gonna pick Obama as I can pick a black person and although woman Hillary as a typical woman but it was never expressed at least stated the beginning sojo by taking or innocent claimed he was the most well I personally have opposed the quote most all quite older white Meehan is what really what he was and so when Biden and stint earlier this year said. I'm going to pick a woman I sort of worried that this might turn into a little bit of a two organization of the role and then as it's become like. Are we gonna have a black woman I worry it's become even more a token position of the role and then. And to be blunt about this. Elizabeth Warren belt innings and Gretchen wit humor. Those all three Q can't believe it's real finalists because those are three from people what it resonates he would not make any sense to really dozer picks for different jobs on some level. It's hard to imagine he's really taking seriously Elizabeth Warren Gretchen Widmer enveloped innings of the same time one of those people is kind of fate. Do you think that the tension that you're describing or divides where then divide in camp represented divides within the Democratic Party or just. Certain it's something that's specific to Biden's campaign. So we don't know I mean. I don't know if there is divided by his cue overnight and only have Chris Dodd's comments for all I know all the light and people don't like Tom Barrett that'll pick we don't know the answer that question. I do think within the Democratic Party there's clearly a divide between. Should this pick to be sort of about. A representational pick meaning like a black woman should this pick to be about he left work person the balanced ticket so like more like Elizabeth large should just pick someone Sunnis are gonna help you'll more elect orally catalytic Gretchen Widmer so it's hard to imagine Biden is. He Biden must be prioritizing. Governing. Warren and electability wit murder symbolic organization belt innings he must beat him Gagne one of those things over to its use but we don't know which one and we won't know until the pic really. OK well let's. Let's take the easy one of those three to eliminate which I think. At the risk of being spectacularly wrong is probably Warren right gore has a choice for it seems like you have to say you're considering her them. Because that satisfies certain faction of the party right but there seems have been little kind of substantive. Buzz about like actual and again we're reading tea leaves here kind of almost literally credit seems like. I don't know it seems like she's like anemic it's mentioned kind of in a perfunctory way. I don't know I mean. I mean think looking much like Chris tablet particularly like all the worst reasons. Two not to care has sky. It can and the reason we get reason that stickers a reason you mentioned which is that she ran a campaign that's probably in. You know lower court trial to be very generous about it of performance relative to expectations. Impact you might say that this is Newt. If every year you have a campaign you know feel grammar. Or Jeb Bush. You know we're candy just kind of totally disappoint since she was a candidate this year right. And the question as to what extent does that reflect on how which he would perform maybe not as vice president as a vice presidential candidate right. I know I mean. Mom. I eat. I also wonder about like. Picking someone who hasn't ever run for office before like like Susan writes. I know when talked about this. A few weeks ago. You know I kind of think well Biden is from the perception of do least harm that you can write but it's kind of not entirely clear kind of way. The most risk free. Choices necessarily. Well so I think. Sign it ethically in the VP selection process Great Lakes some of the leaks whether it she attached to someone like dime more generous generic. A friend of different acts person is being considered. Is testing the waters for I think with race in particular you've seen a lot of what about the currency Republican you know there is wanna headliners like Republicans like please give us straits it's like testing out. How these various candidates would do but I think to a hearing saying the fact that in March and defeat with Sanders items that I'm gonna pick a woman. It is now shifted the conversation particularly as he's delayed rain accused supposed to do and investors tilted closer to the convention now. But it's now with what kind of women and lasts about the qualifications. Rain and more just like oppose the rate type of woman. Which I think then kind at this period of saint recognizes the parole. Which is unfortunate. Because from my perspective. I sort of feel like in March the most logical candidates for a seven the eight year old. Person running for president were Amy Klobuchar Elizabeth warning Tom aleris like can be clearly qualified people who into the process. I'm not sure all of this floating in Seoul on his mostly clarify. Or change that dynamic. And that's why I'm a little bit light. I don't like you know in general I think being event ever BP is good. I don't think the last it would have been great for Karen bass and I am not actually sure how seriously the arrests are considering her in the first place and so. And also is confusing because there's been some like having David Axelrod tweeted on Friday night cannon implying that Kabul Harris was doing up low on Karen bass. To stop her from being the pit I don't this true or not. But I think it goes the point it. Is Karen bass a serious candidate or not I don't actually know is Susan Rice and Canada's business interests and agendas I don't know is warrant I think natives writes he's probably not a serious one but I don't actually know because we have. All kinds of different types of people. Being like. Bell giving you if you wanna help Blackmon balconies makes sense but if your name electability rescuers lot more sense and sight. I have found the process a little bit. Confusing and unhelpful I think and I don't know that's Joseph Biden's fault or at an opposite party spot wrote this. Politicos follow the news media's fault or something that appeals a little bit off here. And he doesn't it does reflect the different forces in the democratic party of there's been a large Kenton and especially of people close divide and white. James Cliburn grew. From the beginning is that I want you to pick a black woman and so there's been allowed ports saying it should be a black woman and that's why I've ever been so many different black women added. At the same time the leftists that well what about Elizabeth Warren had she pulls better whereas our young African Americans anyway. And suit like you just I mean is and it just reflective of divisions in the party. I mean. Yes and no I mean if you ask you people pushing for a black wool with true serum. They mean Kabul Harris they don't mean Al innings they've looked at who vice presidents are in the past they know what they're basing its say that in other trying to be sort of subtle about it but I think we weren't necessary yet. But it's a why can't they just like to thank evidence that. The idea that is like pushing on Xeon and forcing him into one like obviously don't they don't wanna force one person on him but I don't think anybody like. There's one person who's been a senator Rick president as a black woman that's kind of why if there wasn't a couple of parents and only there have been a huge push. For we demand a black will make his have been we who's obviously quell. What do. Widmer. And what about it Tammy Duckworth. Because. By indie commit to take a woman he didn't. Initially commit to predicting it to picking a black woman or woman of color. And those are people who ordinarily there from the midwest there I mean I guess you can say swimmers. Only two years into his current term which is an issue. But like Duckworth is someone who would seem like a pretty. Natural fit she's a woman of color also. So so I don't know right. It's. I'm sure my point is that like you know but neither of those two wit like. We totally. Shocked me I guess I'd say where is like. Karen bass seemed mortar like a choice little bit. What field potentially. Anchored yeah. That's fair I think Duckworth getting that she's a veteran too panicked pleas to you part of items that he'll race. I think it's still ultimately goes back to it carries that is like because. That active campaigns from dollar to meet the others invited scanned the question now be if it's not. Well was it because she was seen as too ambitious rate in mind that. Undertone in office I think complicates and someone like and a quarter or what America really good resonates for this position. Kind of not being seen. In the most favorable light medium romp that's how the media coverage but I think they have to it's not yours this. They know Widmer and wit right no be played were president before as well certainly assist PM this in thing it's not like I was. Like judicially vice presidents have plans are run Hepp. You know is is this not be an additional qualification to be DP to rule out running for president so I don't so the idea that. Debts should be done is a little odd I think we've never had a female president so. I sort of would prefer the person who's vice president if there a woman be opens are running for president the idea they should rule that out seems insanity to me on some kind of weird loyalty prisons Joseph Biden who. Trust them bottom already president we sixteen like almost all the keys do. And so Widmer I think of UC choice in net. There's a lot of reads like she's in midwest she did very well act morally but she wouldn't that in some ways the ambition thinks she's clearly ambitious which I think is a good thing but all people including golf lessons. So I think WC pick you make a lot of sense actually. Yes 75%. People who became vice president since rove were to. Either became president or ran for president. I'm. You now. Now if you lose on a VP ticket and you do not necessarily had a promising a political career. But if you become VP that's a big deal and all of these people who work he's considering her women have a lot of ambition and submit to get my like. The critiques of terrorists were like the worst critiques to mandate the power of voter I would want somebody who was. Ambitious. About being president because Joseph Biden is seven B eight years old. I'm not sure he's gonna serve eight years. I'm not sure about four years. And so it just seems like weird to. And obviously they kind of gender nature. Of that complaint. It just seems like the exact wrong thing to say. But as he took and 75%. Username and so weird to me that if I didn't we consider new that are. Biden's picked the next woman president maybe you know like it just that's. I think that's been a constant reminder throughout this process because he came out announced in March it's gonna be a woman. It's just like especially as it tracks it just takes on a different acts. Tones plus on the mayor's race that there's always like what is going to pick one. So lucky about in his last thing is I know some of the talk in the party is about. This is the one it's weird to have to basically. Potentially picked its weight when he for a candidate right now and people are nervous about the so one reason if you wanted to take Susan Rice UD's so easy so the stop that process like maybe she runs for president to but I think. It's odd used to needed if Witten markopoulos. In the vice president is a row they are going to be planning to run for president and Susan Rice our Karen afternoon maybe you sort of delayed debt. He sort of make that don't mis it and defer that decision. You know estimated told me like one you have Hillary was the inevitable candidate for a long time but we had some evidence she was not a great candidate at this point you have some evidence that. How melodious not a great candidate I think. And so therefore you are may be nervous about putting her a spot where. To get a new candidate we have to sort of dislodged her I think that's real I think there is some real plot about the going out. Well liked on. Generally speaking unless you are an elected president. You don't get a pass for the nomination right in 1976 when Gerald Ford became president. After Nixon resigned you'd a very vigorous nearly successful challenge from Ronald Reagan right. You know LBJ the in 1968. You know was challenged the point where he kind of quit decided not to run for a second full term third partial turn. So you know so sites person's gonna like Walt Scot free and democratic nomination and when he. 24. Season that we create. But there might be 5050 chance of it and like Sarah said right. You know 5050 chance you're picking it dissent in a woman president the next nominee but between the chance that Biden didn't. I'm remain in office Roth worry years and the chances person at some point actually becomes president. There might be a 5050 chance that Biden is picking. The first woman president it's a pretty pretty weighty decision. All right well. We're going to find out this episode visit all the background and we're gonna find out who's the pick as soon enough and then will be able to. Sort out a lot of what we've been saying here when we can actually apply to view real. Running mate peck. So expect that later this week let's move on and talk about how this 20/20 race compares with a 2016 race according to the polls. It was a round this time in 26 team that Clinton it notched hurled largest lead over trump of the entire campaign. She was ahead by seven and a half points and the national polls coming off of the Democratic National Convention. Today Biden leads by a similar margin. But even when Biden has led by much more than Clinton at similar points in the race. Commentators have pointed to Clinton's experience as a reason to be skeptical the polls so when you compare their positions side by side. What does it actually look like and Sarah know that we've recently on the analysis for the web site as well soon kind of give us an overview of how. Biden's performance in the polls so far in 20/20 compares with Clinton's at sixty. Clinton's peak in 2016. Was like a week after the Democratic National Convention right. And she is seven point five indeed overtime Apple's well you look at where it is now before the convention he's already had a clear so that strict one daughter. Should history that point one in his right he has a stronger nationally in Clinton at her peak. He also enjoys a higher level of support us and that's not surprising because. Trump is an incumbent in 2016 it happen incumbents running. And so people are a little bit more or turner there's less undecided voters because he knew who the candidates are. I didn't has high name recognition he did during the primary is just last in decision. But the third point which was interesting is Clinton at her high still planet more in certain key states. Particularly in the midwest and I had so well he has a stronger nationally. And Clinton Rupert trap. There's still a lot that could go in trucks feature in various states which underscores that maybe has leaves. While strong nationally. Isn't that much marker and Clinton's summer arts. So what does that mean I mean why weighted by it'd be doing better nationally but how. Smaller margin over trump in some of the swing states compared with Clinton. Some of that comes after the fact that lest voters are undecided. This year. And then also the state swear Biden has these huge margins over Clinton. Or states like Texas Arizona. And so to speak to. You know archer environmental ships that are happening in the states that we saw with Clinton she how oh lead. Her she performs better in Arizona than he would have stopped doing in. But it also underscores that these states in the midwest even though to be clear in his leading trop in in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin it's still not as large as what clintons was at her peak. And some of that could be that you know pollsters hath. Redefined how they're doing their methodology sentenced on sixteen. Leading for education. Or it could just beat the resiliency of trump and he's regions rating means the other thing is we haven't had a lot of high quality holes in the last sneakers but Biden's. Lead over tramp is shrinking again you don't have a lot of high quality polls but. In these swing state strap is so competitive particularly the ones in the midwest. So something Sarah. Radar prayer is that Biden has a higher level of support then Clinton Everett did. Even when their margins were somewhat similar and I think that means that Biden has been polling act 50% higher nationally. Whereas even though. Clinton may have had a a seven and a half point lead she was still only you know in the low to mid forties she didn't have a majority of support because there was so many undecided. Voters that. Neat what do you teach that to mean for the state of the race does Debbie do you look at that and say Biden's definitely in about a position and Clinton. I think she's. Definitely in a better position and I mean it's LaMarcus the questions when you're comfortable and you're comparing skis me. Holes against pulls four years earlier pulled it's what we knew about Clinton's vote actually wound right. Into any sixteen. Our model although he's detected a little bit of an electric collar defendants for trump meeting after he was favored notre part that he was. Benefited from route to the popular them. But it became more clear over the course election cycle a name was even more pronounced in the actual results. And in the polls on so to compares. How Biden suing the tipping point states I was doing nationally. It's actually a smaller gap than Clinton had based on real results. By its larger think and it was like terrorists ending than it was at this point in the polls. Four years ago there was an endless awareness of how well terms coalition might play. In the Electoral College I think among pollsters because of education waiting in people anchoring to 2012 and and other stuff. Look Biden is. Doing quite well right he's up eight points something points or national average right now it's been a pretty stable lead they're not that many undecided voters there are not serious. No offense Kanye West and a few states third party candidates running. You know there's more polarization now which means or tend to be fewer swings in the polls. There is of the elephant in the room which is called. Cove 819 and how I could affect. The election between now and November we haven't had connections yet again and the VP pick is yet we haven't any debates yet. And there's a lot of uncertainty and so it's a different type of if she writes more Kynan macro. Level this year Mets like how sure Kenya because he certainly in the past has seemingly forgot Clinton in some ways. When people talk about it between sixteen. If I can be kind. Or unkind right. They revealed there ignorance a little bit about kind of how accurate polling really is or isn't write a far greater concern for Biden. And when he sixteen. Should be 1988 Michael Dukakis was ahead by a you know a point to this point loss election by eight points or other years where. Polls fluctuate. Very wildly. Tweets Eckstein in the it was a relatively. Minor Bollinger because by and sleet is a bit more robust and Clinton's he could survive probably tweets Eckstein. Style error. But he couldn't survive a 1988 style mystic. And so I don't know I mean I just kind of think like. The reason to not be that confident so come out when the model comes out and Biden's chances because like it's early August. Polls to be way off the final averages in early August know though something's point word. Narrower ranges of uncertainty. We also have coded in negative thirty whatever percent annualized GDP growth in and the protests and and Donald Trump being present all these stories in like. Cost polls to shift potentially. And we're in a very polarized time where. In the and you might expect the election to tighten anti election trump probably still has an edge and Electoral College. We'll jumped out at me was I denied didn't know. Was I don't think I realized how far Clinton was from fifty and help close or above fifty Biden is and I think that is important is I think those. Nate was a pretty as the live at the idea there was so many undecided voters and their so few less. It feels to be harder. For me voter to go from undecided to trump then free donors voted to go from Biden to maybe and decided to trump or Biden trumpets feels like. Maybe I'm wrong when it feels like a different process and I think that's an and Portland went. The second one is like looking at the where we are right now all. Is interesting because you know Biden's campaign seems to be. They're getting a lot of sort of pressure to go into Georgia going to Texas. It seems like they cannot announce we're going to be in Texas but he could end by its very smallest like there cannot flirting with it and I sort of think debts where we are a little bit now is like the polls have been steady for a while one of things I'm looking for is like what does Biden due to not only win if he can but also to ensure there's a democratic set. And I think that's where we you're looking at an eight point lever is up five point lead bursts of three point relievers the ten point lead that's kind of what I'm watching some of the most can you drag a senator in to Georgia. Or Diallo or Texas and I think right now the its that is yes. And if I was like Biden's staff will be thinking about how we win by eight and not five and so I don't know that looks like and I think that's a big part of where we're headed. But is not also. What Hillary Clinton ended up doing in 26 to Ian and I was pretty widely criticized for after the fact. She tried to expand the map instead of focusing in on the states that she actually needed to win. And then didn't win Michigan with our unit you know of a story. I mean I'm not in this society that she showed up in new Wisconsin three more times it's I'm a little skeptical some of that. I think also the different elections I mean I don't know exactly. This is not likely diesel from others on this but it seemed neither some and a diminishing returns or you can only speak I mean. Every dollar in Wisconsin does not mean is not every dollar in Georgia is not a waste achieved instant into Wisconsin I don't think the math quite works that way. And so I'm not shoe I mean also the value of a democratic senate is extremely high otherwise you know if you. Obviously shouldn't detract from winning the presidency but I think the value the democratic senate has really really high so I don't think that they should dismiss that I. Yeah it's tricky I mean I think. Clinton Campaign essentially Pennsylvania and lost that see it to socialist system in Wisconsin right. NASA should attempt anymore mission and we should say nobody is campaigning on the ground much in any of it anyway so I guess we're talking more resource. And advise them like men yet the on the ground yet. Now mission should have been mission Wisconsin and like you should have adopted a more. Defensive strategy you know I guess I guess yet each is this year our the senate is. The Lowe's also played music scene right analysis notion that like. Biden needs a landslide victory. To prevent from from. The results. Are even trying to I guess you would have to call it cheat his way to victory right by. Impounding he'll ballots or something I mean I don't know. How far to go at the speculation that stuff right that's another argument you're that wasn't in play as much and twenty. Sixteen. The is cancer raising. Plenty of money you know and I mean you can play. Offense and defense to it's ridiculous amounts of money in these candidates have you do care diminishing returns and so. You know mighty. General advice do you try to campaign and of the mine campaign that's what's your advice advice but with campaigns like don't confuse played pretty. Right now. You know now maybe exceptions are kind of peak states that are more on the fringe rights who. Texas is a very expensive investment. You'd better be sure that like if your Biden. We're trumpet you care about the symbolism of Texas Sinatra that Texas is very are gonna be the tipping point state as we would college. Ohio is an interesting one in that it's actually polling surprisingly. Competitively. Even with by a little bit ahead. But also Biden's two and one of the midwest to win Ohio does he need Ohio maybe nine. It's not AC it has a lot of competitive. House seats. So but you know there are some choices to make fare like all little weird states is nothing wrong with. The current campaign and play for. New Mexico or to batters something like that right. Or for Biden playing defense in Colorado all these small and medium sized Internet and expensive to campaign in the Japanese money. Near I want those present a year as well a bow. You know how much. Oscillation we can expect from set pieces like the conventions war. The debates because we saw a lot of that in 2016. And you know. Obviously we've seen that bargains it has been pretty steady so I think the question is like do we see more and consolation to receive trump. Start to rise around out of his convention. Around the time of the debate. Did you actually had to think about this and creating the models so. Argued treating those things differently this year because I've made it a pandemic. Or lack of undecided. Voters. Well in general convention that's have gotten smaller. Because there are fewer undecided voters there are fewer. Swing voters. So you speak much amounts would. B twelve points rate it's been a recent elections were like five points three to five points and average. Yet like Heidi. We ultimately decide in the model to assume they were is going to be half the usual. Convention bounce. You have number one abbreviated programming. Which nudism matters much for like. The networks it only usually carry our any way but like. But for like CNN and on the Internet people follow commissions and lied to from ways now so there's less. So to watch a number two it's mostly going to be. Virtual and not an hour right I mean I've watched. And state of the union responses I've watched enough. You know pandemic. Basketball and baseball and hockey to say like it does flick. A usual when you're not part of a live audience here a snack and have. For the most part. Reporters there and so you'll have to return TV not like you're not gonna have as many. New York Times or Washington Post stories about like kind of what it all means. So I think there is reason to expect that the effect of the commits to be blunted even though you can have a lot of people sitting at home board also especially for. The Republican Convention. It's not clear that these speeches are going to be terribly well thought through were staged you know and I mean. You know on the entrapped and we are inanimate clarity on like an American with their plans are necessarily and so. So yeah I eat up the debates though I think it matters much as they always do. The debates people will be very intrigued by Ian and companies and incumbents an intriguing story in like. You know at least show up you know when predictions came wrong people were like. Triple refused to debate. Intricate it was actually wanted to add. A fourth debate and or. Move up a debate earlier which I think by the way is a pretty reasonable argument if you're having people early than it might be good to have an early debate but that council presidential debates as a commissioner council. Anyway. The ruling authorities said no we're gonna keep the schedule as it is. But the debates I think could be super important sure the conventions though I don't know. Priest and a 530 April our coverage of the really excited. The presidential. It's been. Diapers were actually and have lunch daily podcast during the conventions. Daily oh. You know in wrapping up near one. Kind of one way that the chattering classes and book acts. Campaigns is like. You know kind of enables you'd define your opponent and oftentimes the stories. The the losers of past campaigns. Our COLT in the lands of like well you know. Hillary Clinton got to find that's where Mitt Romney got to find this way and was stuck in that position really couldn't get out of it. Now I don't know if that's actually how campaigns work in my assumption is that it's it's not perfectly reflective actually of how campaigns work. By. I guess so I guess educate me does your ability to define your opponent matter at a long that's in line. Sarah and it is where you think here. As trump simply not been able to define Joseph Biden in the way you know. Opponents have pasts presidential candidates have been able to. Well so I mean. It is early yak but I think with the current Paris it's just a lot harder to house. The campaign events especially for a candidate like Trout who thrives on the in person brown right. But then she's tried to make sleep each you know moniker where he's been less successful in his attempts to. Saying that Biden is part of the radical left right he points to. His favorite punching bags in the house and senate. In terms. You Cortez. War Nancy Pelosi. But it doesn't seem to have the same resonance with someone like Biden because part of Biden's. Whole political career has been working with the other side of the race he was called the McConnell whispered. And I think what sums it up really well is now for the first night of the convention he could have former Republican and candidate trying sixteen John Kasich. Bernie Sander history and you know and my sixteen point money carry guns I again. And shall. Are former First Lady on one night kind of talking about the future of the Democratic Party in item looks at himself as. The candidate who can unify all of these different factions for eight. And in for trauma needs to have some. Way to punch fighting down. In terms of light an opponent it just hasn't been as successful as with Clinton he could point to. Her emails the scandals and you know it's not to reactor could be a surprise but I think to your point is part. An election's defining year hone it's been really hard for trucks do that successfully. With. So the campaign ounces of like you define your political with silly but I do think it was helpful it trawl was viewed unfavorably. But he managed to mixture Clinton was also viewed unfavorably. Into when he succeed. You know they bowl but he had very high negatives a lot of voters like I don't like bullies people. Until a personal note the new person drop. Verses so I do think the next three months I think we have found the protests not beat over the media as much in not happening is much. Maybe Kobe is not being covered as much as it was perhaps in mid April or may I do think in the B I do think trump has three months to now. Try to drive up the negatives of Biden and the DP candidate like calling them too liberal by saying they're dishonest by saying did you know the real vice president the real president will be whoever Biden pick so I do think there's a potential. For trump to be successful at that and I just because Biden has would have done well so far. When I would argue a lot of people are not engaged in the campaign and voters wise. I don't I wouldn't rule out truck being more successful and in defining Biden and driving Biden's negatives up in these next three months. I think it's entirely possible. Would you can do. It's possible. I think. Biden kind of ran. As a candid to prevent that rate right kind of ran as like Emma generic Democrat needs. And he's white he's a man. And he's straight and those things I think make it harder it. Define him in particular ways right he's. Catholic which actually bit unusual. The is kind of in the middle of his party's so he had an army I think like. The Joseph Biden is just a Trojan horse for word. AOC. And policy. I think that can maybe work with a certain element of trump space. I'm not sure really persuade swing voters that much. And in some ways without coming to light too much tension about like. The choice Democrats me in the primary rate. You know. In the midst of a pandemic having anymore or risk. Evers choice. Might make a certain amount is sent strike is by name is always running is like kind of a caretaker. President and you can argue that the company to lack of care taken of it. If in the area of coalition and and police violence and everything else. So. So yeah I think I don't know I mean. Trump we'll have to to make some type of a sustained coherent. Argument right. I wonder if it won't wind up being about. You know protests or rallies. After all let me be lets you mystic right you know you've seen now scenes in two cities of Portland in Chicago where you've had more violent. Uprisings especially Chicago overnight you know I wonder if trump may be in successfully might try to resuscitate. That theme which Hampshire feeds a lot of its natural impulses toward more authoritarian thinking. And I'm not. I'm not confident that. They're gonna idealists say anything new about bite and that isn't kind of already priced in two travelers are thinking. Well guess what that was given his earlier is that. Biden was hit by about to end in the average of polls around July 2 he's a hit bad not eat now is dead. Is that real is that not real because this you know trump can gain. Two points in a month while. Behaving some what. Normally it is normal erratic behavior may be heating two point next month and it's six United's because I do think the protests. Who in their most intense moments and the weight truck reactors of them were hurting. And I don't think guest actor will be around again so I do wonder if trump is gonna come is in the midst of us. Indeed if not nothing but it is not been an interesting out you know. Look I think. When people were sympathetic. After George Floyd to the cause. Black lives matter right in number in ways that we're pretty robust given that people had mixed feelings about that we've of before right. And you know so it was a notion that like. I know I mean a member kind of covering as a newsroom Pelletier these two. Big stories. Coated and the protests and that trump is. Somehow on the wrong side. Of both of them right now it feels like yours. One big story its Covert after all rate mechanism may be even more on the right side and that. His approval ratings and Tenneco would have continued worsen. But it doesn't feel like there are multiple fronts as much as of that might that might help them. A little bit that kind of opens a question like does he want to like. Resuscitate. The protests. As a team or not would it be wise for him to do so. You know it also gets a little bit. Tour the VP segment we talked about earlier right we're. You know disorder Biden since gonna pick a woman there's a particular expectation would be a black women. But you had to purchase the team the major story right in now with him fitting a little bit and maybe they're floating maybe could be. Christian Gretchen we are after all who is more known for Kobe being the major issue. Seattle apparently a ticket it's plausible white comes close to it could also be kind of noise in the polls whatever else but yeah. Do we haven't gotten a lot of high quality resent polling right I mean as is August down time for pollsters. I think what happens is. Pulls want to take a before and after snapshot. With respect to the conventions right. Or if they can't don't afford both before and after the wait until after C a my guess is you'll have some. Big national polls coming out late this week pre convention and then. Another round after the conventions. But they creates a drought. Kind of for the past week or two. Eric ball let flavors that are we will see what happens or originate thank you. Thank you sir are. Things Galen. And thank you Paris that still. My name is Q and returning each I was in the virtual control room you can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts are 3COM. You can also of course greeted us with questions or comments. If your fan of the show meet its rating or view an apple podcasts to work. Or tell someone about us thanks for listening and rolls. And yeah. And.
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