FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Can Trump's words incite violence?

The FiveThirtyEight team discusses trends in mass shootings and checks in on how politicians are responding.
50:01 | 08/06/19

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Transcript for FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast: Can Trump's words incite violence?
Hello and welcome to the 530 politics podcast I'm doing to repeat. This weekend of the country was confronted with back to back mass shootings one of which was explicitly tied to white Nationalists terrorism. A young man targeting immigrants killed twenty people at an El Paso while Omar on Saturday. That attack is being investigated as domestic terrorism another nine people were killed in Dayton Ohio on Sunday in a shooting where the motive is still on no. At least 53 people were wounded in those two attacks and another seven people were wounded in the shooting in Chicago also on Sunday. So today we're Donald take a look at the trends in mass shootings and white nationalism. How politicians are responding and what the American public ethics and here at me to do that our editor in chief and its owner pentagon it thank you also hear me is senior politics writer Clara Malone Harry a ticket. And managing editor Mike account. And Lula. So I mention some of what we know about the attacks and law enforcement investigations are still being conducted. But at this point what else is notable about the attacks happened this week and Claire watts or via given. Or a political podcast I think. Mass shooting that stands out to me the most in that context tonight realize that that's a pretty but Cobb treason. And I don't mean to be flip about it. But the El Paso shooting. At a wal mart's. Hope Wal-Mart that is frequented by people from Juarez Mexico as well as a American citizens. The shooter. Posted on online forum come. White supremacists. Theories about. Demographics. Specifically about. Him Latinos and whites being replaced. Anne's he quoted trump reportedly. Quite a few times now. I actually can't read the manifesto anymore on its original forum detailing doesn't actually opened for me so I'm assuming that is. Been taken down but those are those reports about it so he didn't. Expo I read sort of manifest or he didn't explicitly quote trump and he. Kind of grows out of his way to say I have these sports are cut into office and we integrate riven up that's true owners also. Complicated issues surrounding how much to specifically referred to of this manifesto because your laws written to manipulate the media anyway. He doesn't explicitly quote prompt. There are obvious themes. Your references doctor gather and that have been brought up and Fox News and by trumpets are. Her anyway. Get geographic location of the shooting. The fact that El Paso has been at the center of you know a lot of back and forth rhetorical attacks mostly from the president. Come in you've seen you know congress there's former congressman federal workers received from El Paso who. This morning we're recording us on on Monday late morning here this morning basically came out and said to the media gaggle. We listened for guys of course meant that president's rhetoric is connected when the shooting and and it's pretty strong statements in this is make. That's it suits. Unfortunately. The political conversation. Well that's that's what stands out command some of us walked echo what Claire said billion. This has become a thing in him. US now where you we have these mass shootings and that meant there is always a political conversation that follows. And and that conversation has different flavors and different pan errors and focuses on different things. Depend depending on the specifics of the shooting right. What stands out in this case is just how. Political. And just how snugly fit this this tragedy was within our politics I mean. The language that the shooter used in what he wrote. As you guys said echoes what trump has said at because Fox News you know the point about it. Pre dating trump. Did you have to do that at that that doesn't disconnect the two right I'm we have research that shows that. The way that political rhetoric can affect violence is is now I'd like. Making someone who has never. Had had these thoughts before all of a sudden and adopt them right it's by focusing and activating people who who already believe some of this stuff. So to me it site. It's just sort of how closely tied to to feel. To Santo. What's what I keep thinking about is if people remember when Carson Gabby Giffords was shot in park a lot along with several people several years ago. There is that there was a comp a conversation that said you know. They're been I guess that at some sort of trump like these are the districts to target right but yeah it was a Sarah Palin yes Sarah Palin led kind of these are the get Gifford's district as one of these the districts we want to target Cilic turnover rates habits make it too into Republican districts. And initially there is a lot of people saying look you put you put eight. You know a gun cross hairs on the east posters and some on shot actually shot this congresswoman. These things are connected and then there was a push back in the media to say no that's those those things are connected. And I think. Look listen I'm not here to talk about that shooting necessarily but I think that the fact or having a pretty explicit conversation. In 2019. About the way political rhetoric can. Incite pull it can insight violence. Is very very different and you know eat eat people. People constantly make references to billing go to trump uses about an infestation there you know those we invasion and an invasion. And I think it's. In light of this weekend's events it is it is really striking to go back and look at the way you V is. Culture and media a Pollock a poet a political system reacted to the Giffords shooting. For the way reacting to now and I don't think we're reacting to a wrong now to two tie. Political rhetoric to. Violence and and there are you know I think that they are likely going to. Treat this shooting as a eight in intent and asked to terrorism and be at a hate crime. You and I do want since we're talking about the relationship between. Rhetoric and violence I wanna quote. An article from Nathan Thomas was an assistant professor of political communications at Louisiana State University. He wrote an article in Politico last October. Title to gas political rhetoric can incite violence and here's his quote. Researchers have good circumstantial evidence from the real world as well as evidence from scientific experiments conclude an overall. That rhetoric is probably not the main cause in most attacks. But violent hateful language can inflame people who were already inclined toward violence and focus their reach. Serb something to keep in mind. Throughout this conversation. Neat to put this Ian context. What do we know about the incidences of mass shootings and domestic terrorism in the United States today. According to of the nonprofit gun violence archive. There have been tuned for Q1 mass shootings in the US between nineteen. And they defined mission is anyone name which at least four people are shot. Not counting the shooter in the same incident. They could include cases where. We think of it is urban. Kind of street violence or things like that and not necessarily. The sort of premeditated where usually white shooter stands up and but like obviously these things are happening. More often they are a relatively small part. The number of a broad gun deaths in America which average about 33000. But you know obviously the way to think about it is in the frame enough obviously to me. In a frame of terrorism. I by the way don't like them on a fire domestic before. Terrorism terrorism is terrorism. And whether it's to massacre or national seems like about the eighth most important. Mon a fire. But you have someone with an explicitly political motivation. Who is trying to you instill. Fear through violence that stretches behind. The death tolls. From the incident alone. And so that's seeing a salute different here and like to kind of like. Sit bad those statement for example he had several candidates who like swearing about this and I'm usually kind of and other contexts in favor of more. Swearing in politics fewer my votes where more. But like it is like and what kind of moment right because like you have to ingredients here that are very very. Important one is that new US we have easier access to guns. And two is that you have. A revival of white supremacists in which sometimes is aided and abetted by rhetoric from the president. And like we can talk about how different solution my teamwork difficult or the contractual fact user economic anxiety here whatever right the light. But those have to be the first. Two things you mention. Many outlets in the media have been pretty frank about. The message there are an and that goes declares point about unfortunately we've had enough of these mass shootings since the since they differ shooting. That the media has had practice tests. And just repetition and you know but just frankly people are way more comfortable including us. Going to the politics the political implications of these shootings. More quickly after yeah which we think is a good thing about bike and it. You know it's interesting because we must come in 1999. Somewhere in the madness and again back in the early ninety's I mean that was. I don't remember talking and listen I was on a sent into delta mrs. In a kid. But I remember it and I remember people talking about video games is certainly a part of it right the culture Bob a block. But as the conversation has evolved over the past twenty years. It is turned into people explicitly first in of people explicitly tiny to the NRA it NRA policies and now we're at this. The president's rhetoric kind of stage of things. The blame he Twitter when or whatever but like a lot of those like this SoundBite. Culture of political media. With the Twitter culture political media but that doesn't necessarily lend itself well TU. Mike did new wants. To say like. It's hard thing to say liked that's the word you're saying. Could potentially be causing murder so that's right that's an and that's a big thing to say yeah and it's a big thing to digest and it fits like. I mean I'm not sure I'm going here necessarily but like yeah I like the press gaggle and the idea did that trying to get a sound bite out of the the the presidential candidate about this really massive issue is kind of a rough. Situation to be an. Knowing their reaction I think his impart again that's when we don't have the exact question but if the media something report as of sometime task. Candidates. Like factual questions. In order to do what Nate said with just like you player you know what you launder the opinion breakthrough. Terrific through one tighter the other. But again I I think I think many outlets including many major outlet outlets have been pretty good about being being straightforward about this although that's had bike. Just just to be a little. Dick the conversation. Obviously hasn't come that far because we still have. But mostly coming from Republicans. You know people pointing to video games and people pointing to trump to that. It's responses. At some also. I mean like it's just so I don't know I mean you know me. I don't suffer fools lightly. Animated argument is just so incredibly. Sorry but believe it and I think you have I think could if if you believe that then I don't think you're I think you're beyond persuasion console stupid. That like your brain addled bipartisanship or stupidity and I'm not sure that we're gonna help you out on the obviously like. Yet it's worth saying that there has been. Research done on this topic that just that ought to let the sun and I don't as silence of videogames violence and I mean. I don't coast on your statement though that we shouldn't like go through the steps of beat proving to people or consistently. Slamming their heads against the wall and paying no these are pleased to recognize and powerful people are acting in bad faith pulled out of Johns corner Harris went well we this was is eight. Complex problem why here we try to political solutions meet of course you should and of course Chicago politicians out but also I think. Being repetitious in the way that you cover these events and continuously saying to the American public not just disingenuous politician. Nobody needs are connected let's talk about the root causes that's not. A futile act few tile at. Right now I see I agree with that and the me actually add one other thing which is. Actually the the idea that video games are Lang. Recent session this does not there's not link stomach let's be super clear about that. I'm not sure it's a stupid idea like have you played some of these video games they are not crazy two series a lot of videogames. I think per capita highest spending is in South Korea. Rok argue there's you know with ivory is very few mass shootings South Korea keeps saying just don't dismiss that as an. Persuaded the idea that having violence in media in general having violence in video games having a bunch of people play violent games. That people may be persuaded that I idea we know from the research data capture but let's move on from this specific part of the conversation how. We have said event this is a complicated conversation that. Different media organizations are doing maybe a better job that Democrats have been somewhat straightforward. About connecting the rhetoric of the president and the Gator attack. In a passer specifically. How much does this. Events conversations about. White supremacy. White nationalism trumps rhetoric. Violence. Mass shootings gun violence. How much does that play into you democrats' message to the public if we're going to be kind of explicitly. Political here because after 2016. I think there was some run reticence among Democrats. To talk about quarter core identity politics. I think Charlottesville change that a lot and I think you see Biden. Brings up child still a lot. And that's part of his argument to saying. Look at do not just look at these terrible people in Charlottesville but also look at the pres elect look at the president's. Vouching for these terrible people and it's part of his whole. The country's on the wrong track and I'm the ones take on trump thing so I think that that it has you know it has been talked about a lot. The presidential debates are notable for the sections of the debates that have focused on race people talk about white supremacy in the United States regulate it's a pretty. Reducing that that the Democrats are. Using that phrase white supremacy I think people at public the past few years. He's been used so much more. And in the difference. I think in a different way than most people understand stood white supremacy in recent decades right which is. People tended to think of white supremacy as the kkk. Lynching people and burning crosses. And they didn't think of that maybe Beebe necessarily buy it like a dictionary definition of white supremacy which would be. Systemic racism in the belief that what that whites are. What are your bra burning crosses are you know putting in poll taxes or whatever it is it an institutional. Pillaging of whites over people other races and I think we are. Using that term white supremacy much much much much more in the context of regular everyday politics in calling things out and that's been interesting to watch. And the democratic debates because it it doesn't just have to do US political violence a kind of goes into. The rhetoric and some of the other systemic things that that. Democrats are now pointing to ads and we need to change that. You know I'd maybe we can answer this question but. In watching interviews were about our work. Corey barker and Hui on Castro over the weekend. Some were more or less willing to tie the president's comments to the violence right. Who I'm Castro said there's one person who's responsible for this attack it's the shooter now of course this happens in an environment where the president is saying. These kinds of things. May be better terms are a stronger stance and connecting the two. Is it. Is it wrong or bad politics or what ever. To basically say the president is responsible for attacks like pass on the Democrats part. Bad politics and what's fence and you know because as we read you can't it's kind of what climate change right you can't say that storm was caused by climate change but you can say. And latching he had a lot of the Democrats. Kind of say expressive they think the president. Is are racists. That it was one of them if I'm not mistaken. And you've had you know Joseph Biden kind of launches campaign around Charlottesville also supposedly he's the most prudent and moderate candidate the major candidates in the race that he is willing to kind of go they're as well I mean look. To some extent. You're gonna have a process where. You probably have some camp candidates emphasize gun. Violence more I'd have some possibility that might be based and he said more this weekend and whose communities were targeted. But to some extent democratic voters will signal in various ways. How much they want to prioritize. Gun control. And gun policy vs other issues right. I'm amid ambient tests to see which candidates said their teeth I mean there are a lot of things going on here right but two of them are. In terms of issues in the political realm guns. And then white. Nash Tom white nationalism whites prompts. And it will be interesting to see which candidates. Like lean more into the guns part of this sandwich lean more into the race part of this and the white supremacy part of this. Or which you know tie them together and I'm not sure which of says it's like to. Better political move to be crass but. And there are some talk about trumped this morning in his in his press conferences Pedersen O he's going to call for. Universal personal background checks and it didn't happen it could soar in this sort of the sort of that he's an ending like whatever will work. Now when he imagined he'd it was very it was kind of and he he's well he Brent tax trade off the it was it was hedge our guys as yet exactly. Was. And it tweet this morning he suggested. So that background checks be tied somehow Bush's immigration. Reform which it is clear that like it's. Trump can't sometimes even do you like the minimum rate. Like the minimum to say like let's focus on background checks and and have a modest background check bill unlike lobby for the GOP congress and not. Tie it into something more complicated. Like he can't even do that simple stuff or refuses and I can't won't right. There's always a need that bombed stocks you Dan palm stocks opened it yet is something kind of the part worries he's he said we can never thought he. Thoughts and her basically Republicans Democrats must come together and get strong background checks. Perhaps nearing this clause legislation with desperately needed immigration form. By the way he also goes on to he says the media has a big responsibility to life and safety and our country fake news has contributed greatly to the interest rates has built up government years so and the shooter used the phrase prolific. What he puts on Twitter and frankly what he kind of sentence speech. It's just so meaningless so what went up part of what I was interested in as if he says the same thing on Twitter that he says in this speech. Which is scripted and which he stayed on prompter for you could tell right. Members like okay trump. Twitter and his staff the speech. Morning. Are at least on the same page term and maybe agree it's. But it didn't seem but it didn't seem that way right exactly yeah and you did say in that speech. Quote in one voice our nation must condemn racism bigotry and white supremacy. Cannot he sat on corners or what he was read it off the teleprompter. But to make the point that I mean. That verges on gas light and right because that the the other things he has said. Up to and including his tweets that today. Our sow discord in west. That and that that is one thing where talked about that press getting smarter I do think that like. You don't see people selling all compass committed toward a new blog blog red light up today because a very large there's a time either when he has a moment where he acts like him more typical soothing reassuring. Angered angry scene a president. Are followed. Usually 2440 hours later where he gets caught up in some. Dispute. And winds up undermining the entire thrust of that mower olive branch she version of trump. And the view that trump is racist is now a majority opinions and they're on an airliner 52%. America's ailing state is racist or types of say no installation and partisan. I think it cuts mostly along partisan lines well although it is strict but truth. District that the poll question yet so specifically I'm looking like. This quinnipiac poll asked is do you think trap as racist if you're presents at Yost 45% said now there are some unknowns there or they don't know. And then asked whether terms immigration policies are about a sincere interest in controlling our border won't racism 49% said sincere interest 41%. Senate races. Shouldn't that also shows us that the racism question write you think trump is racist is not just partisan because when asked about. His immigration policies people are a little more nuanced about whether or not he's being sincere or whether or not. It's racism you don't get a majority of Americans saying that his immigration policies are rooted specifically in races. But death. When we talk about. What happens next politically. Donald Trump in summer is then you know mentioned universal background checks and then backed off. We've also talked a little bit about. Which Democrats are orange call for stricter gun laws. We how this conversation before on this podcast about what happens after gun violence. Is there any reason cheer expect that we will see. Changing laws in the coming months. It took I don't think it's the Rama possibility mean you saw that they've they passed that bomb stocks fell in the next few months could today. Could they pass like. I've kind of lukewarm. Background checks bell dumped I don't think that's impossible I'm much it's likely but. I mean yet again you have a big divide between the house the senate where in the house. Obviously a big problems the GOP was the suburban areas swinging blue. Those areas are gonna tend to prefer Democrats policy on guns. And you know it's big problem for Republicans in the senate overwhelmingly. Disproportionately written by a rural states and so it's a very different. Calculation. The Gallic again there are for a long time the kind of belief was that well. You know sure most Americans want. Background check some work on control but Republicans feel more strong concerns are more strongly about the issue. That polarity has shifted. I think post Parkland yeah. Where it's not clear actually in the Gallup survey mid term voters last year I think more Democrats had going control was a higher priority than Republicans did. And so that has shift a lot but again. A lot of policy would look very different if he didn't have a deliberate bias in this senate toward rural states. And that really affects kind of where policy is. The other thing I would MP super surprised by is if they passed I'm. Some type of this like red flag legislation with trump mentioned in the speech which is like. You can go to court to sort of get someone's guns taken away or preempt their ability. By a guy and if they if they think pat an action the police right or you know or some type of violence. There was a poll by our colleagues at ABC news and must impose. From last year that should 83% of Republicans. Back some type of that. Provision. I think that I could happen. I think. You know Parker and to do well I remember having a podcast you guys after Parkland. And here was the big CNN town hall where. In you to confrontation neatly between route rubio and one of the student Steen a lash from the NRA was on. It was a big deal and I think in part because Americans react. Really strongly chief shootings in schools. And then we saw with new town when. They were like essentially toddlers who were killed. So people I think you have released a rash to this school shootings and I hate my sense with all the stuff is that. It's like they did this smallest of nudges along the way it like each one kind of accumulates uptick together. So like acting like a might be bright like meaty something will happen. With background checks. Needs also right that that this is. You know the gun issue because of the room the rural bias of of the senate does become. Just on some level you're not gonna get huge change. But that huge change the Democrats want unless you changed the makeup of that chamber. So to me it feels like this nudging along that this really really slow pace that's understandably. Disappointing for of people. Yeah and the other part of this you know him just to contradict myself. You have eighty something percent of Republicans my favorite that might say they favor of that paper. Law that the red I think the law. But like guns. Is so tied in with identity now. Particularly partisan identity but now add race and there. And and I think you know. YouTube obviously wouldn't be surprising if you just saw a kind of hardening of the partisan. Lines and nothing gets done that's probably about them a little while I'm here ranked and I would maybe argued our vet. Republicans know that even if they have. Rule charters have an advantage in the senate. If they want to be competitive in the house NN national elections they do have to win back suburban voters they can't just seed we. Look at the country broadly you out of urban and suburban voters and is not that much of America left to vote for I mean Rick was unpleasantness in the next segment right but like the Republicans who know they have to feel the suburbanites accounting are leaving the but doesn't what does that scare the Republican Party ended employ. Encourage Illini take your strategic point but also in some ways I think her. The it's the end of a Republican Party right it's that it's the ideas that in some way is there is a deference to it needs of the national. Republican Party right. We want to win the presidency we want to hold the center like we want of the senate like and the India ideas as maybe a little bit mr. cheek sense that while. We're not going were not to win those leaning democratic districts anymore anyway so let's let's let's play to the trump messenger that I mean it's. If you're aren't on the battleship trump right and you're the captain. But half the crew by the way you're about to trip which is a lot of momentum toward. Toward all these things that you think are bad for the party and furthermore. Three quarters of the crew. Are either true believers and from prism or are from districts that are very very strongly trump. And a very rural and therefore. We are to assist woods might not like anything too limit. Availability of guns right that's a really really really hardship to turn around and I know me it's occurred to me this weekend. People are so short term focused there are lots of scenarios where. Trump's presidency results. In the long term disaster are all. We're back and we just started the conversation in a bouts. Republican retirements in the house and essentially Republican strategy going forward as a result of some of those retirements. Now the news that were reacting to your is that one today Kenny march and in Texas. Announced his retirement but on top of that last Thursday well heard also a congressman from Texas congressman from border actually. And the lone black Republican congressman left in the house. Also announced his retirement on top of that we have some other reason retirement announcements including Martha Roby at this point nine Republicans have said that they are retiring so far in 2019. So is much as begin with putting that number in context is nine retirements a lot for Republicans so far this year. So at this point as of August 1 so not quite the same almost same date. Two years ago you had eleven Republican retirements at that point. But remember last year was like. Election barely. Had very high number retirements Republicans and so the fact appear almost on pace to last year. Less cycle is not good for the GOP. Especially given that they now have fewer people period and so like. There are few people flee retire from. So it it's a bad sorry and at least a couple of east Texas districts that that they're going to be. Quite competitive and that's it you know with Texas singles inching into itself but like. Lady and I mean I don't know right both well hard and Kmart dot com from competitive districts in Texas yet looked. Political with a can just quickly and a lot of newly elected Democrats that were looked at a very blue year. And when he eighteen would be inherently vulnerable and 120 but like but if you have all these remaining GOP. Suburban. Incumbents. Dropping out to be replaced by some and his more company and then then I mean certainly in terms of like. Where the GOP's odds of retaking analysis is material stuff right on both like the immediate impact. In districts like will hers it's probably don't lean democratic district and in terms of like the the signal it gives for other retirements and also kind of candidate qualities of such as who retires but also where you know like actually get. A well he old stays safe senator. Are they gonna run for the house now. Knowing they're gonna spend the next two years dealing with Trump's rhetoric knowing that they're gonna probably be. In the minority. You know maybe diet and candidates matter line these races and so and so if I were. Republicans want to over the house and be very very very worried about this one every is the reason that you kind of guy that made that it's it it's especially worrying for Republicans is it's like. Double Li bat right it's it's both bad as a signal. In that you have. These members who know their districts really well we're getting polling or talking to people and clearly locked in around Ambien like. Long 20/20 is going to be rough on me. Maybe it's better fight this kind of like packed my bags and go. And it's bat in the way and it just described which is. In it you know there's an advantage to being in common a lot of these. People are from before you know that their it will be hard to rip for their party to replace them with the candidate of equal or better quality. And also mean I think some of the stories. In various outlets that have their talk about these retirements have made the point that. Sees the people who are retiring in the kinds of districts that their they're coming from. You know the fact that she might have to that your asked about the president's comments all the time the fact that you might have to. You know defend his comments on things you probably don't agree with guns on a variety of issues I'm sure that they are some sort of you know there's a Zoellick a job quality of life aspect of this right I think you saw this with Bob workers retirement and Tennessee senator Bob Corker retirement. At the end of the day he was just sort of sick oath. Being mean there were certainly elect twirled. Arguments to be made but it's also liked you know you didn't you know wanna fight for you know a year and a half acted to do something that may be wasn't actually all that. Grade. US in in a trump area. Do you remember when trade Garrity were announced his retirement and then went on price and gave. One of laws blunt political interviews I've ever seen in which was just like honestly it's Sox I didn't enjoy it as I came here with like. My ideal is on and it was just totally squashed and I'm leaving unhappy about the experience. And I should have like I mean this is an earnings statement but let. I do you think that there is a certain point past which some people. Should not. Go in in public service like. There's this thing with like it will ambition is a strange beast but like. A lot of people you know that we really into local government and the school board and current City Council and the media they ran for state rap but then there was when congress. I mean. What's analyst dean state wrap or a city councilor where the mayor of the small town like good governance can happen on a small level and you don't have to like. Satellite failure here and flashing light clan anyway so I know the they're probably a lot of local politicians who listens contest I new isn't all sincerity I thought about this song where you are I'd I'd thought this a lot. Why not stay where you are a might be really good at what you do for the people you actually know lower your ambitions. But there's not found on. One NID every decade. One thing I wanted cement and Mike you were saying if there's two ways in which this is bad for Republicans it's materially. In that you know incumbents can do better but also the message that sends there's one more. Notable aspects are which is that as we are dimension. Will heard was the only black Republican in the house on top of not according to politicos are now more men named Jim in the house and Republican women running for re election. So. This is somewhat of a hollowing out of demographics with whom the Republican Party already does portly. And we've talked about that gender gap before on this pod cast. You know the gender gap can potentially be fine if you're doing as well with men as you are during oral. Portly with women but once you know for example Democrats are doing better with men to keep doing as well with a win and your skirt and you have to make up ground with women does this also pose a challenge on that front. The Republican Party. Is mostly white. Disproportionately male disproportionately old those are like. Did defining features of the party and and has been cut that has become increasingly true over the past couple decades. And and there is a self fulfilling. Cycle here where if you don't have a woman in the room. If you don't have person of color in a rare if you don't have a minute someone under fifty in the right and it's hard to. Ted. It's hard for the end product of whatever people are cooking up in that room to appealed of those people right. Or even speak to this people to be relevant to this people said there yet that this is a long term problem for that for the Republican Party. So OK so women are the new swing voters for different it's like white college educated women and white non college educated women are kind of the new swing voters. There is a real big strategic strategic argument from this from the Republican side of things to start to think smartly about ways to. Pitcher policies to Whitman. Right like I actually think the most interesting person there was an inching moment on the stage this is obviously Democrats but. Injury Maine where it stores talked about his universal basic income plan through the eyes of we should give stay at home mothers fathers but mothers was what instead we should give them money for the where they gently clinching way to pray right. And to me it's it's it is fascinating to watch the GOP. Not have a consistent message to women. And even in the democratic primary EC all these new issues coming up because that that and refine the way you talked to Whitman politically that are super interest in. And I bet my bottom dollar they come because more of the candidates are women Connolly harris'. Plan for. Pay equity. Where the burden falls on a company that's not paying women as well as men not the individual woman. Kristen Gillibrand saying that we have a plan for IDF for poor women not just for wealthy and so there are this is just to bolster your point for me it doesn't make sense that the Republicans aren't thinking more. Jeff no more fine tuned to weigh about how to. Get their policies across in a relatable way to women specifically because they're the swing voters. Yeah but I mean it's makes perfect sense threatened there's not many women in the in the room so it's like nine but it's it you have to overcome. Without more representation and the ram. First of all there's ignorance right to there's you don't know what you don't know but I speaking as a white man I can say this but blocks a confident. You don't know what you don't know rights or the tyke it. There's a constant process of if you don't know in asking questions and being and learning right. Both Passat there's also apathy and then there's like outright hostility staff them overcome all you know it's it's a anyway anonymous. But I do when I'm. They bring in fact I make it and OK I do every back again to a point and I was raising his contacts may be desert tired him. Hearing about it right but it's about the structural advantages. That you have toward having a coalition of like older white working class voters. In the senate and Electoral College. In so you know. To some exit the GOP is responding to that if you can imagine every mr. by the popular wrote. Then as bad a year's GOP had in the house if California had. You know 25 times more Sanders and Wyoming. The be effective there as well and if they have the popular vote they would not control the presidency right now and so alive and to be quite different. But I do wonder if it's like a kind of bargain. With the double in the long run. We are as. Because women like very few exceptions. Men and women populated the United States in equal progress and I'm Whitman went onto Matt white people vs them are battle. And to some extent Earl people vs urban people. Mom. And you know to some extent I mean texas' like. Is like a little bit like kind of when the iceberg starts to melt. Where when Texas begins to go purple and all of the advances the GOP has from. Having. At least Electoral College in the senate they kind of have like a there's a permanent. Built in and rather profound advantage tore whichever party from strong liberal areas that's not gonna change. In less. In less more states are added. I'm and there are Sanders rural state or west or the Dakotas combine for the coalition's. Let me polish sisters behaving like also one of all the people in Nebraska start living in Lincoln right like do courthouse. Or what if we covered in North Dakota from the combine the Dakotas. Way but this doesn't account for Republicans difficulty. Where is women and to get back to that let let me just read this one more quote from a New York Times article about the retirements does what it's representative Susan Brooks of Indiana the head of recruitment for the party's campaign committee. Have been tasked with a replenishing the ravaged ranks of Republican women. She announced in June that she would retire an indication of the long odds of that effort. So literally the person who is tasked with replenishing the house with Republican women retire. I mean. I know I guess it's all kind of like. To use the term like intersection all in certain ways you know probably on average. If you have people who are kind of entrenched and conservative and empower they tend to be both. White and men if they're older especially. And so those things kind of reinforce one another. This there is also. Perry and I worked on this big piece printed a while ago headlines why the Republican Party like so few women and part of the issue is that. The system is biased against women in the number place right. And so to elect women. You can't do nothing you have to actively try to elect women if you just let the system play out. And says system will favor men and women are less likely to run. If they run their they're just as likely to win. But there anyway there are there are million impediments to two women. Brian so so in other words. You have to actively put pressure on the system to elect women Democrats have that in the form of most importantly like EMILY's List right. Republicans don't have the equivalent of that right they can ask what they literally do you buy in terms of strength. I probably is not equivalent rate I'd have Susan B. Anthony west perhaps some group they have like Maggie is less but it's not it's it's it's often contingent on. On a particular issue. Yeah and it's not and it's not of magnitude or scale or whatever it's is just doesn't have nearly the power and aired their reasons for that right Republicans in general I think part of that are. Ideology. Puts less emphasis upon. A aspects of identity right now so they're the party in general is less comfortable all. And I am I think in a real way and opposed in a real way. 22. Actively trying to elect. This identity or that identity right. But then without that. You you know you've used kind of what the system run its course and that that'll give you disproportionately men. There's obviously also just a question of like. The Republican Party is on the wrong side of a some issues that that. Women are on the other side frank purposely sent. Okay have I was talking about earlier how. Win voters white women voters are becoming more of the swing constituency. And I think white college educated women. We're trending that way pre this mid term but that we saw a white non college educated women's. In his past mid terms going a little bit more and the democratic column. It's interesting because he has talked decide about this recently indeed needs interesting point that in their view you know. The wave. That she you as a Republican turned that those white non college educated women against you is you make them believe. That you are the party of rich people and taking away their birth control right the idea that those. Those working class white women or non college educated white women cannot evangelicals. There. They might have. They're mentally racist things they might live in largely white areas but but culturally in some ways they are liberal and they don't like. Rich people right and so the idea that as you become. A more male centric party that really and conservative male party that sort of key point of taking away not to sexual freedom but economic freedom. You know by the ability of Hanley plan that's actually sort of a snippet a potentially damaging long term. Perception of your party and so I thought that was an interesting point which is like those -- might vote for trump. And the national election but they might be irritated at there congressperson on you know in the mid term election McGovern amendment say. And gone the other way and bouncing out by ticket just to wrap up. I do want to ask before we on the podcast. The last time we spoke we were in Detroit it was Thursday right after the tier democratic primary debates and we have. Only had one pole outpost debates. We have a little more data narrow so. Neat what does that tell us about power the American public. Reacted tear the democratic debates and Torre was fastened because nothing seems to have happened really know I mean. Brit hasn't been that was my hot take the end. There has been no and temperance pay a little polling it's just past. There has a little polling which. Maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe maybe. Suggests that. Harris is down their point or two and mourners up another point or to anyone else seems to be pretty Sanders Sanders journal bevy of component to it. But could estimate is not going to be a major. I'm surf the phrase major game changer I don't think and I think like. Especially with the news cycle moving on to Pelosi we what we haven't had we haven't had a traditional high quality. Lies of telephone pole post debates yet as of this taping but at this point. When we start getting with the incoming polls when we start getting into territory where voters are also or Americans in general democratic voters. Are also reacting to how of those politicians reacted to it that I mean that politicians are mower. For slow reacting might get more an advantage of me and it's sounds callous like predict who's gonna go up or down but light but like. One more just saying that the dumber via fax of the debate could be modeled at all that consider yeah that's there are now reacting to other than very. Like a re old. Struggle here among the Democrats where there is a group of candidates who sort of want to talk about like. Economic justice and distribution of wealth and health care on the one hand. And is like another nexus for people want to talk about. Cultural issues slash how terrible trump is slash raising their hand of those kind of clusters according gather and you can kind of go through one by whining kind of figure out which cancer in which cluster want to talk about what it right and and are involved Ferguson whose and vocal as the foreign knows that warns clearly not and the culture and race cluster. We've seen was is she plus hawks are wrong about. Raines bookish is a good round operational decision but I mean she's been wearing when during the debates she was one of the wire tension trump them both some wire supporters so right I mean like you know I don't think she's won a candidate who who. If you're being callous. Is. Happy for the conversations he turns to. To those issues vs issues like health care which is so they're more an issue for Democrats and was a focus in some ways of the debates. If you're being callous than like him. That's not her comparative advantage people come to her for like you know kind of want you left policy solutions and Mike and like. I think it was Marion Williams said he says like you know race route racism is like not an issue where the wonks are gonna like. Have a lot to say right. And so yeah. Having watched her. On this don't but it seems like she talks are the stuff pretty often and openly but. I think chefs and EI. Often ties raced to economic issues which hitting his interest in or you know like she is she talks about. Plans to end sort of or to give additional funds to areas that have been historically red lines. She has you know. We want to build up. Blackwell flick I think a lot of her. Stuff is smartly. Which talks every she smartly ties it to economic issues which I guess O'Reilly both clusters. It is our I had and I will generous and I if you look at the way that like well what black Democrats and ours is gonna did not yet aren't happening now at Security Council line. I'm Sam like you should just now recently that appeals to white voters. Sheila too that may be to the slice that of the democratic primary electorate that is the elect the woke white people right the increase the week increasingly liberal particularly on race. Segment of the primary which tends to be GAAP college educated white people here didn't wealthier people. But sir. Our well was not we are going to wrap up today's podcast thank you may thank you Dylan thank you Clarence things Dion and thank you Michael.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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