Transcript for FiveThirtyEight: Super Tuesday Politics Chat
I mean they're different definitions of block up. Here's the MSNBC show there's. But. It he won't be that mathematical thought he doesn't end up and Rudy needs to be able to at least one statement whether that's Minnesota Virginia girl last guy I cannot say. But if he can at least one once they put something on the important enough for the second place finishes but more than that in terms of the map. Clearing these thresholds and these other states like Alabama and Texas making sure that you pick up Dallek gets. Or your absurd it's if if rubio loses every state. By exactly one point three between nine from an okay how can. I think Ted Cruz has a good night first off he wins in Texas and he wins by a larger than expected march I think ten plus points should be larger than expected. And has a big delegate Pena right right and that would prop almost certainly come from winning right by ten or more points. Perhaps winning a surprise state maybe Arkansas there's been limited polling there that would be good clearing threshold some places like Alabama. And perhaps Marco Rubio not clearing those special to mark rubio not winning any states so that crews now all of a sudden becomes an alternative to try. The problem is that we have basically we'll have had cruises best states including Iowa Texas mostly puts in the south. Done as of march ones so he's still ring it's Marco Rubio offered for now if they both have a really good night really bad night rather than. I guess it's trump again and then you might almost have people saying relations Allstate and a model for brokered. Convention. Mate maybe Mitt Romney comes riding and horse. If trump has good night my mad lib is indisputable. Front runner you can dispute whether he's a huge YUGE front runner. Or pretty clear front runner. Or even a Marshall front runner not sure I'd buy that argument but in this fatally he'd be that the front of the favorite. Look at Bernie is. Two in any way really make immediate believe it all that he's going to be competitive ethnic yes to win states like Massachusetts Oklahoma. Colorado. Minnesota Massachusetts Keller Minnesota three that. I don't think and we can excuse a loss Oklahoma's a trickier case because it seems southern Oklahoma actually pretty white though. On lots more conservative. We've laid out targets for Bernie. He is behind so far he has to catch up. Yes prom racially more than catch up because of super delegates. So if he can't win Massachusetts of the struggle to win Minnesota. And that races. Pretty darn close. Cut over. The extremely extremely extremely extremely heavy front runners prohibitive as the word you're looking for. Now there's a reason why I L eight Bremer.
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